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Sorry dp but I have purchased an additional 30,000 shares this morning over a few trades without issue whatsoever. None of my business of course but if the market starts moving quickly in either direction are you sure you are with the right broker?

And of course I was referring to the £ being predicted to fall. 5/10 must try harder.

Sorry meant dimi.

An unusual and unexpected note from you Super. If I read you right you are ok, indeed happy with £2.71. I get your point about the last gold run and Barrick’s price moving to CAD $45.5 but I have to ask with such a run what would be the value of the gold that ACA is producing or if it existed it’s SP at that time? I agree with your point re little incentive for management at these levels which will influence them to push for a higher figure. The Independent valuation adjusted for $1400 gold values us at £3.5, Barrick’s SP rise suggests they can pay this by issuing less shares than they had originally accounted for and although a little stronger over the last few days is predicted to fall following a UK rate cut in January, which will help Barrick again so why should we get any less than that?

Well, I got this wrong - looking in the wrong direction. Still a good company but suffering in a difficult market place. The question is will they maintain the dividend to ease the pain? Probably hold for now but unlikely to add.

Well dp it could of course be that the case refers to and is about the business of Indivior which RB owned until 2012 and could be seen as significant for the current company also RB’s RNS stated that it settled all matters related to Indivior when what it meant was in relation to RB prior to 2012. INDV issued the second RNS to clarify. I certainly agree that the settlement was good news for INDV although of course at this stage INDV are disputing the illegitimate and unfounded case in court, dispute the fact that the drug in question is marketed to help with opioid addiction INDV is likely to settle with a smaller cash bribe sorry payment. Shorters are increasing because they can but the risks for them have increased significantly.

Sorry dnd misread your name, thought you were a commenter from another board I visit - apologies.

Hi dimi - are you invested here or researching?
H1 and Q2 2019 results – 24 July 2019

We will have to go through the motions of a circular and voting but if the board recommended the deal all that is just a formality in practical terms. For what it’s worth I think you will get a profit - not the one you should get based on a fair value but a profit nonetheless.

Yes F but Pat is correct if the board recommends the deal it does not have to pass the 90% threshold and has the much easier 75% barrier which they will get easily. If the board go onside the deal is done. The board have held strong so far, they are not going to do a back room deal - although I never expected Barrick to try and stitch us up - but we need to have faith in someone - on our own we are powerless - so let’s have faith in them. Time for us to relax and hold hard.

You may be right dimi but £2.71 was the value with gold at $1300 - RA worked that up to £3.50 ish with gold at $1400 and PG’s truly genius comment showed us that with the increase in their SP this was actually costing Barrick less in net share terms, so everything is wide open in my view. I am hopeful that MB will see it the same way and Barrick will come through with a fair bid - the fact that it is costing them less is all to the good. I am not afraid of arbitration but it will allow the market to manipulate the price again and although I think F is being harsh at £1 it could drift to £1.50 again - I would have to double up and that would make my holding quite a commitment!

Thanks MP - I feel an affinity with holders on this board and like to let them know if I think I have spotted an opportunity, some will work out others won’t. I have done well with MTRO as unusually for me I have traded in and out of the share - I currently hold quite a few that I bought at c£5.20 and they are at £5 today but overall well up. I would be inclined to add at £5 but have been distracted by INDV - time will tell if I have called this right but I am very happy with the prospects.

It’s true what you say about shorters although as I have said before, nobody knows the market better than they do and now Odey has switched long he is my hero - imagine how we might feel if he was increasing his short? I also agree that ACA still represents a very good buy but you will know I have been banging that drum for quite some time. I have quite a large holding here but may well add, not least for the reasons pointed out my dimi. My dilemma will come when a deal is agreed, do I let it ride and stick with Barrick or sell and fend for myself, probably a bit of both but I am getting ahead of myself. ATB.

What an excellent way of looking at this PB - thank you, so obvious now you have highlighted it but I had not thought of it that way. Busy today so I am just going to accept your maths as given. I am still pitching for £4 plus and whatever way you look at it we are getting closer every day.

Those with spare cash should, in my humble opinion, look quickly at INDV - some great announcements today, price off its knees but I think quite a bit more to come - DYOR.

I had a small (market size) holding here taken after the fall. After looking at the figures produced today and the news from RB I believe that this is an exceptional opportunity and I have loaded up to 100k shares. If you are an investor or even just trading for a quick profit there can be few opportunities like this in the market. Personally I doubt they will receive a fine and as HH points out if they do it will be much smaller than the worst case scenario that was already built into the SP and in any event less than they have provided for. If you are here to make money then surely it is now or never - the RNS that we expect later, whatever it says, will send the price up. DYOR. ATB.

I think the market believe it but they also know they have 10 days so no rush. Odey is still adding and that is a very good sign. I agree that the ACA board want to do a deal, I just hope they have the strength and confidence to hold out for the right price. They have done well for us so far and as we can do nothing ourselves let’s give them our confidence.

They do if they were only paying the minority shareholders which is possible with Barrick’s permission but I don’t think they will also whoever eventually pays the $300M will do so in instalments over time.

The Fed are likely to drop rates by 0.25% which is already factored in - things got more interesting when speculation was rife that they might drop by 0.5 but that seems unlikely following the jobs figures. If they decided not to drop that would be bad for gold whilst 0.5% would be very good - once again it is the general flow of his comments dovish or otherwise that will have the most effect.

I think it is extremely unlikely that ACA will suggest a dividend without agreement of Barrick and almost certainly not yet. I understand the prospects within Kenya have been identified but we are a very long way (and a lot of investment short) of producing any gold for the foreseeable future.

Barrick SP, particularly if boosted by the Feds comments, could rise again which will help us bridge the gap from RA’s figure of £3.47 to potentially over £4 with a little tweaking - once ACA board get behind the Barrick deal it ceases to be considered hostile and no longer requires 90% acceptance making it as good as done. £4 is the minimum I said we should expect and it may not show fair value but all things considered if the figures can be made to fit at that level I will be happy and the deal will be done regardless of what we might think.

Well put RA - could to hear from you please keep posting.

Nice move Tiger - all your logic works for me. I am reluctant to suggest people add but everything points to a deal well north of our current SP. it matters not if I think the offer is fair or not but it will surely be higher than the price at which you can buy now.

P - they are meeting to discuss it - Barrick’s release simply outlines current position and picks at a couple of point from ACA’s comments and updates - they do not say they will not move they simply say what they have offered and repeat a lot of stuff required under the LSE rules. There must be some face saving but I believe they will come up with a better offer - it seems that something close to £3 may swing a lot of people, I think we are worth more but very aware this is not in my hands. This does also give 10 days for GoT to relent on ACA clause. The SP is underpinned, we should rise today but I am guessing to only around £2. Hold hard ATB.