RE: Seller (s) finally done?16 Sep 2025 18:26
Darb
why would an institution or fund keep unloading stock in the 30p range after already taking profit higher up? A few key points to keep in mind:
1. Different mandates and pressures.
• Some funds have strict portfolio rules (e.g. exposure limits, risk caps, sector rotation). If EEE no longer fits, they may have to reduce regardless of price.
• Others may be under redemption pressure from their investors — they need cash out, not necessarily the best price.
2. Cost basis vs. headline price.
• If they first bought at, say, 5–10p, then even selling at 30p is still a chunky gain. For them it’s a 3–6x return, not a “fire sale.”
• We often anchor to the recent highs (70p+), but long-term holders might see 30p as still rich versus their entry.
3. Risk management after a run-up.
• Big spikes often attract speculative flows. Some institutions just derisk into that, steadily selling down even if the market dips. They’d rather exit in tranches than gamble on timing a rebound.
4. Market structure and short pressure.
• Selling pressure can sometimes overlap with shorting activity — making it look like “why keep dumping at lows?” But a fund might be happy to clear their book, while short sellers add fuel.
5. They don’t know the future either.
• Not every seller is waiting for “the next rise.” Some believe the risk/reward has flipped, and they prefer to recycle capital into other names.
So in short — while it seems irrational at face value, if their cost basis is ultra-low, or if they’re forced by mandate, selling in the 30s can still make sense to them.
I think all the IIs are at 3 to 6p like a lot of us, so they are still selling at 10x plus