Member Info for big-blue

Olpps, I take your point. Met a few like that over there in my time.

"the US that is bankrolling and providing pretty much all military support for Ukraine not Europe. "

You claimed pretty much all military support. That is completely untrue. Europe is way ahead from the simple logistical fact the former USSR countries had lod Soviet it that could be deployed quickly for Ukraine, except for the MiGs. Most of the nato kit has also come from nato countries predominantly from Europe. The US is stepping some supplies, not in quality rather than quantity. The US has mainly helped with the country's finances. The lend lease has only recently been passed so the US couldn't supply much before then. Tables are turning now though.

Foor, the only think that would influence UK government thinking re POLY would be if the treasury would lose tax and duty receipts. Whether or not it is listed in London is irrelevant in the big scheme of things. Only LSE would raise an eyebrow and are probably more concerned with POLY hanging onto Russian assets and continuing to list in London. They don't like companies in the lists that are at risk in anyway as it makes the exchange look bad.

Your? estimation of support from US and Europe is 180 degress wrong. If you paid more attention to real world news and less to the propaganda coming out of tue Kremlin you'd have a much mote accurate appreciation of what is happening. New nato standard kit is coming in from all over place, and some from the US.

oh and with no MOEX holders, any divvies can be paid!

Knock it down? Err... did you not see the effect of the RNS confirming disposal was a definite and working option and there's a special committee looking at it?????

I think you will find we want to dump the toxic asset fast in order to see the sp fly UP.

Russia needs cash from selling fertilizer and 'agricultural products'. This arrangement will only last as long as Russia can get dollars in the coffers. It will be abused by Russia on multiple occasions and used mercilessly as propaganda tool for Russia and against Ukraine.

This is definitely not the start of any peace deal.

.

It has to be a clean break including no future income of whatever description. In years to come, companies with any kind of link, including things like royalty payments, will find themselves dealing with all manner of complications with banks, governments (local and national) and private companies. The war trials will go on for years and however innocent POLY makes itself out to be, t will be guilt by association. As irrational and unfair as it may seem, that is how the unfair and irrational world works. Humans are tribal, its us against them and we are pretty adept at inventing opposing tribe to satisfy the need to be in conflict.

All Putin had to do was wait a couple more years to let the west bankrupt itself with zero carbon policies and then he could have walked into any country he wished with a can of petrol and have open arms and flowers welcome him. He mucked it up in the most spectacular way possible. Doh!

The point is, there are many scenarios and all of them leave Russian assets as toxic one way or another and since we can't erase the events this year it is a fact that we will be better off without Russian assets.

As far as nato being set p to make a war with Russia, that is hilarious. After the fall of the USSR nato slowly began to wind down to the point it's purpose as openly questioned, spending dwindled and dwindled, the tanks were openly discussing pulling out and the EU formulating its own army to replace nato for its own purposes.

NOW! Putin has managed to galvanise the alliance, spending is rockting, pacifists are advocating action, troops planes and tanks are being rushed to the frontier and there two new members!

And to top it all, a war leader, Zelenski is cheered at Glastonbury. Evets like Glastonbury are normally saturated with anti-war sentiment with speakers like Jeremy Corbyn waffling anti-nato crap. Putin's folly resulted in that crowd cheering a war leader.

It is an insane turn of events - and day by day as nato kit now arrives in Ukraine, it is getting a whole lot worse for Putin.

*zero covid policies*

should read zero CARBON policies

"I don't see civil unrest on the Russia anymore than I could on the streets of Canada, America, France, Brussels, Germany or the Netherlands right now."

There is growing unrest in all those areas thanks to the economic suicide of zero covid policies - although thankfully there are whispers emerging questioning the whole dumb policy. As for factional fighting on the streets of Moscow, I am thinking of a post war scenario where Russia is humiliated being pushed back out of Ukraine and something like the fall of the Soviet Union events with some live fire exchanged on the streets of Moscow as post USSR factions briefly fought it out. I don't think a post Putin fight will be so limited and quick, I think there will be too many kings and the individual wealth of the kings can seed fund significant private armies. It is a scenario to consider.

"The company doesn't want to split, they are playing for time. IMO"

I posted that I get the impression there is boardroom 'debate' let's call it on whether to split, dump or wait. Bearing in mind the propaganda that board members are subject, potentially inside and outside Russia and the resulting spread of morals and allegiances, to pretend all are on the same page would be like saying there is a unanimous voice on here.

As for the toxic javelins, simply take a look at the non-sanctioned withdrawal of the west in terms of business, trade, arts, sport and media. Then dd on government sanctions. I'd say the general overview is Putin has turned Russia toxic and it is going to be a very long time, even wit extensive reform, before any Russian asset is going to be trusted. For many an investment return time frame of 10 years+ is way too long and waiting possibly years to be able receive a dividend is again far too long. It is clear from comments losing just this years divvie is financially hard for a number of posters. I'm sure many pis and iis will want to see solutions to that sanctioned issue much sooner than later, by the Autumn. And even if Russia withdraw and Putin falls by the autumn, as I anticipate, governments, ngos and private companies are going to want to see very significant transformation of the political institutions and infrastructure inside Russia with many years probation before any backpedaling of sanctions. Russia is locked out for a minimum of 5 years, most likely for a decade. Remember too, the loss so publicly and to such an embarrassing degree will most likely lead to some extreme violence displacement behaviour with a virtual civil war for years. And then there is the other scenario where Putin takes on nato directly and nato decides to remove the future Russian threat entirely and is occupying the country by Christmas.

Whichever you look at it, holding assets in Russia is far more trouble than they are worth, if not at least in POLY's credit rating by simply holding toxic assets.

There are two groups,

those who beleived and sold the idea that Russia was dominante and would easily crush Ukraine and that the west was helled to ransom and would be forced to reverse sanctions in short order.

those who saw Ukraine as far stronger and able, with nato weapons, able to repel a vastly over rated Rusian army and that the principles behind the sanctions would outweigh other principles and increase and stay for many, many years.

Debate and claim and counter claim wa vigerous. Sadley, LSE moderators intervened more and more removing one side of the debate exclusively, sometimes focusing on single posters. This frequently led to heavily distorted narratives.

To pis looking for hints and insight on whether to sell out or buy, this heavily edited chat board will have mislead many to hold far longer than they othrwise would and are now deep in paper loss. Others will have bought with looking at the remaining onesided narrative that war would be over very soon based on entirely false and misleading Russian news, and false news of Ukraine weakness, and false news of western disunity.

This is why LSE must not engage or allow moderators to engage in oert content editing simply because a group of trolls don't like the priniciple issue being openly discussed.

Being able to inturpret the war progress and likely outcome is critical for making an informed decision on investing. That requires a free open debate without content ediiting.

And you talk about company fundementals completly ignoring the one single situation that dominates every variable. It is jaw dropping the exent of the delusion that the war can be swept to one side and just simply ignored. Every aspect of the operation and future of the company is impacted due to one ongoing event. It is just extrodianary; like crazed religous zealots believing their are spacesips behind comets come to collect te chosen few. Why did the business feel it neassary to buy the whole spares inventory? Why is there trouble ****ing the product? Why is there open dicussion from the board about selling off assets and/or massive corporate restructuring?

After confirmation that sorme sort of breakup is being arranged, I expected that it would be accepted by even te most delsional trolls that the war is here, is being lost by Russia, will end with Ukraine taking back all territories, the Russian defeat will be real and the trajectory and consequences from that was such that the company policy would change to acknowledge the reality of the now and the next ten years.

But almost imediatly the delusioal are posting a nonsense scenaio, even still, STILL, tryng to sell the impossible that Ukraine is going to be forced to submit to Russia and sanctions will just be lifted with no longer term consequences. Huge efforts were employed by an organised army of trolls to edit this board to pretend there is no war.
Clearly it will be neccassary to keep the board informed of the war progress, the single most imporant event affecting the company so that rational real world information is available, not the delusional troll edit. Meanwhile, those assisting the trolls within LSE will have to be removed from their positions. We can not have a repeat of the heavy handed content editng again.

Do you get charged a commission? Then it isn't AIM.

Two interesting points coming out there. Would MOEX holders want a Russian asset? The holderd of the debt want security against the debt. It would most likely mean some debt will reside where it is now. The problem is the cross collateralization in what are two different legal jurisdictions of which one has sanctions applied (effectively) by the other. This is why a sale of tangibles looks better as long as payment can be transferred. Is escrow sanctioned? The sale would have to cover any western held debt. However, where you dump the asset, youy also dump the debt and remove the risk of a significant degrading of your credit score so as to be free to borrow outside Russia for KZ prospects. I cannot see the Russian team being able to raise enough to by the Russian assests.

Also note that dangling the carrot if hoping to sit out the war is also about gamesmanship telling potential buyers poly is not desperate to sell so, China, make a decent bid or we walk.

We just need to study the proposals very carefully to avoid a stitch up. Having said that, would the board want to swing it si the cash ends up locked up in Russia or freely available in the west.

WOW! the backlash from the heatwave hysteria is phenomenal. If Putin thought he had an army of environmentalists to push the west to be vulnerable giving him the stage, he is so wrong (again).

Rich Lowry: The Most Self-Destructive Force in the World
National Review, 19 July 2022

Without a doubt, the climate-obsessed green movement is the most stupidly self-destructive force in the world today, leaving a trail of irrationality and folly wherever it goes.

Consider its recent record of destroying the country of Sri Lanka, making Western Europe needlessly vulnerable to Vladimir Putin’s energy blackmail, and stoking higher energy prices in the U.S. that have contributed to the fastest decline in real wages in 40 years.

The greens are rapidly making up ground on the socialists as the modern world’s foremost economic and social saboteurs (and, of course, the two now work hand in hand).

If a hostile actor were to consider the best way to harm a society from within, it would unquestionably be to increase the sway of climate alarmists and other environmentalists who believe it is their righteous duty to make it harder and more expensive to power a modern economy, as well as to build and grow things.

They seek to throw the gears into reverse on the millennia-long human quest for cheaper, more abundant, and more reliable sources of energy, while putting new obstacles in the way of other human endeavor.

Since they are fired by a quasi-religious vision of an existential climate crisis on the verge of ending Planet Earth, they reject cost–benefit analysis, not to mention basic realism. The resulting wreckage is all around us.

Sri Lanka achieved one of the highest ESG, or environmental, social, and governance, scores in the world and destroyed its economy in the process. The country banned chemical fertilizers in April 2021 as it hurtled toward becoming the world’s first all-organic country. It proved one small step ahead for environmental pieties and a giant leap backward for Sri Lankan farmers. A large proportion of land went dormant, and production of rice, tea, and other crops dropped precipitously. The resulting economic calamity has led to the collapse of the government.

This is basically the Green New Deal in miniature.

Sri Lanka is a small island nation in the Indian Ocean; Germany is a powerhouse in the middle of continental Europe. But the green disease doesn’t discriminate on the basis of size or wealth.

For years, Germany pursued a policy of making itself dependent on Russian oil and (especially) gas, while congratulating itself on its great environmental virtue as it closed down nuclear power plants and ramped up renewable sources. Berlin can’t say it wasn’t warned of the risks of this approach. Such is the faddish grip of climate orthodoxy that it blew past all the blinking red lights. Sure enough, now Russia may well cut off the supply of gas this winter, at the same time that renewables have proved not ready f

China ain't looking at Russian gas, they are digging record amounts of coal

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-orders-300-million-more-tons-of-coal-to-be-mined-a-year-qqj8h2r0t?mc_cid=aa4c7b8ac5&mc_eid=177c4f2d97

I am still pitching for full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine by October as the reality of the nato weapons and switch back to coal takes off. This will not lead to a sudden resumption of gas and lifting of sanctions. Whilst Putin maybe taken out due the military failure, there will have to be extensive political change a all levels and many years probation for Russia before any 'normal' is considered. Therefore, if POLY is hoping to buy a it more time for a fantasy turn around, that would be a waste of time exposing thc company to debt issues accumulating. The split/sale needs to be acted on as soon as possible.

LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Global coal-fired electricity generators are producing more power than ever before in response to booming electricity demand and the surging price of gas.

The world’s coal-fired generators produced a record 10,244 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2021 surpassing the previous record of 10,098 TWh set in 2018 (“Statistical review of world energy”, BP, July 2022).

Coal-fuelled generation is on course to set an even higher record in 2022 as generators in Europe and Asia minimise the use of expensive gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S. and EU sanctions imposed in response.

By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have been replaced by newer and more efficient ones needing less fuel per kilowatt.

Global coal mine production was 8,173 million tonnes in 2021 compared with 8,180-8,256 million a year between 2012 and 2014.

But mine production is also likely to set a new record this year as the surging demand for coal-fuelled generation overtakes efficiency improvements.

COAL RESILIENCE
Coal’s resurgence has confounded U.S. and EU policymakers who expected it to diminish as part of their plan for net zero emissions.

Between 2011 and 2021, generation from coal grew more slowly (1.2% per year) than from hydro (2.0%), gas (2.8%), wind (15.5%) and solar (31.7%).

As a result, coal’s share of total generation worldwide has declined 36.0% in 2021 from a recent peak of 40.8% in 2013.

But the enormous growth in electricity demand (2.5% per year) ensured growing demand for all sources of generation.

Coal production and generation is set to continue rising through at least 2027 as the rising demand for electricity overwhelms efficiency improvements in combustion and the deployment of gas and renewables as alternatives.

TURBOCHARGED
The rapid economic recovery after the pandemic has turbocharged these trends, boosting electricity demand and the dependence on coal-fired generation, and lifting coal consumption to a record high.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-2021-coal-fired-electricity-generation-surges-record-high-2022-07-21/?mc_cid=aa4c7b8ac5&mc_eid=177c4f2d97