Member Info for Bickmaster84

Given that PREM have not posted a picture of the drilling rigs on their website and they have apparently been mobilised for over a month, I would question the veracity of GRs earlier statements. It would not be difficult for PREM to pop a photo or two of the camp/rigs up on their Twittter and this has not been done.

Good to see this finally come through. Shame the share price tanked so much over the past few weeks at the offer wasnt based on 6.5p rather than 3.92p. It is almost as if it the reduction was planned to make the RTO cheaper for CiiTech... Though I doubt the market would be capable of being manipulated in that way!!!!

Wolf,

Don't mistake conservatism and experience for negativity. I would like to agree that not even GR should be able to mess it up from here but if anyone can mess it up, it's GR. Just need to remember that he hasn't actually delivered anything out of the $25m odd he's been given over the last 8 odd years.

I get a funny feeling the next RNS could be after hours tomorrow evening. After hours RNSs in PREM are never positive.

I hope I'm wrong.

Bickmaster

Snowking,

You used to get some predictions right here but as time has gone on you seem to be losing your touch. I very much hope it is a temporary blip.

If we are looking at dilution at a discount for the £2m raise for Zulu, which I am fairly certain will be the case, that is likely to be 1.5b shares given the current SP. I am hopeful all of the raise will actually be spent on Zulu and not on other non-productive assets or new assets which we don't have the capital to develop.

You also stated earlier there is no delay with drilling. The 31 March RNS titled 'Initiation of Definitive Feasibility Study at Zulu', stated mobilisation was commencing. Tomorrow marks 10 weeks since the EPO was granted and drilling still hasn't commenced. Mobilisation should only take a few days, 2 weeks at the very most, I know this from previous involvement in large geotechnical programmes of work. I also know that having rigs sitting idle costs quite a lot in downtime costs.

Today's interview was more of the same. There wasn't anything new. GR is still making it up as he goes along and sounds like a broken record. The only positive from todays interview was that he didn't mention RHA or MNH, though I have very little confidence he won't raise for them as part of the Zulu placing. RHA will still be costing money to keep in care and maintenance and those auditors seem to be taking an awful long time to determine whether MNH is actually going to provide a return or not. At best it raises question marks about the transparency of what MNH are doing. At worst, it looks like the investment in MNH was money which was very badly spent.

The adage that PREM will be turning major revenues in 2-3 years is all good in principle but the same principle has been applied here over the last 7-8 years. RHA has been a dog, and a very expensive one at that, and Circum is always a year away.

We are now in a position where raising for Zulu is getting more expensive by the day because of the fall in SP. I am hoping this comes good and we make a decent return but the longer George dawdles the greater the risk of this not happening. Zulu should be a great asset, I am confident with proper management at the helm it would be recognised as such and the SP would in some way reflect this, but he has a track record of non-delivery which takes some beating.

Bickmaster

Realtime,

The difference between drilling a DFS and drilling for oil is the scale. A DFS may consist of 200 - 300 individual bores between 50 and 100m deep which means its best to have quite a few rigs on the ground which need to be moved around a lot. Often you need to get the rigs to hard to reach places to ensure you are getting the right level of coverage for the DFS.

When drilling for oil is it is usually a single well to a much more significant depth. Given it is a single drilling location you can spend the money on access and pad construction. That wouldn't be feasible for numerous smaller harder to reach locations for a DFS. Hence the big push to get everything drilled before rainy season.

The good news on a DFS is you can get more rigs on the ground to help reduce programme risk.

Bickmaster

Chuggley

No it doesn't, because the drill cores have to be analysed which takes time, then the results incorporated into the DFS model, the model verified and then the report has to be written on the back of the modelling. So a 14 month programme (announced in March 2021) should be finished in May 2022. I'd allow 6 months for the back end analysis, modelling and report writing. It isn't the case that the drilling continues up to the May 2022. The logical cut off point is before the start of the rainy season but GR's delays are putting that at risk by missing out on two months already when the drills should have been spinning.

Wednesday will mark two months since the EPO was granted. Since then, not a single metre of drilling has taken place to advance the DFS. The rainy season in Zimbabwe and the delays to date increase the risk of the 14 month timescale proposed by GR not being achieved. It would be good if the RNS due today sets out plans to increase the number of drilling rigs being used as part so the drilling programme. I understand there are 3 rigs mobilised. I can't see any reasons why it would not be possible to double this given it should not need a lot more management. Fundamentally it increases the probability of getting the drilling finished before the rainy season and getting the DFS delivered on time. Perhaps MNH, who according to the previous Bara Report have $20m worth of plant and machinery have a few drilling rigs going spare...

Snowking

The reason the SP has fallen 50% is because of the lack of certainty on funding and the very poorly worded RNS of 18th March.

Almost as crazy as spending a chunk of money on RHA in the hope it will pay for part of the Zulu DFS rather than just spending that money on the DFS. I fear GR will be after looking for more shares by Xmas as the 5b will be gone!!

There’s a first time for everything!! Though I don’t think the company should be spending a penny on RHA until Zulu has DFS. All funds and focus needs to be on Zulu. RHA is nothing more than a distraction from the main prize, and an expensive one at that.

I would be more than happy with a deal to sell RHA now for $5-6m to fund the DFS. It would be akin to getting rid of a weight off our shoulders. The value that an be derived from Zulu far outweighs anything else in PREMs portfolio.

The clock is ticking and every day the drills are not turning adds additional risk to the DFS timescales.

GR needs to get his ducks in a row.

Snowking,

I think they’ll need more than a good report to get RHA moving again!! I am sure the report will be produced by Bara. I wasn’t very happy with the assumptions they used for the plant valuation at MNH to underpin PREMs first investment and my gut feeling is GR will use RHA as a reason to take more of MNH as part of a larger more complex deal. Remember we were told MNH had $20m of plant and didn’t need any more. However when PREM invested it was for additional plant.

All of the focus in the next 18 months needs to be on Zulu. We shouldn’t be diluting for other non proven assets, especially ones which have been a nightmare in the past (RHA). The 14 months for the Zulu DFS will more than likely have been based on 8 months drilling and 6 months analysis, taking the rainy season (Dec - Mar) into account. Keep the financing deal simple at look at Zulu only. The more complicated it gets the longer it takes. We know GRs history in this area is poor. Every day with the drills are sitting idle is a day where we are not drilling. Focus needs to be solely on Zulu DFS and the minimum funding needed for that. Not looking at other megadeals involving Zulu, Circum, MNH and RHA.

AIMHO, Bickmaster

Mugwump

Where am I deramping?

Acker
I concur with your post 100% and also agree with the points made by Steward earlier. I understand the views about a JV at the point in time resulting in giving away more of Zulu than may be necessary but the downside here is that GR dilutes more than is necessary for the development of Zulu. RHA has been a disaster for PREM shareholders and will need $2m+ to get into production. I am not supportive of PREM spending a single additional dollar at RHA. MNH is entirely unproven and the logistics of getting the product to Walvis Bay is challenging.
The risk here is GR issues an RNS which is overly complicated and involves further acquisition of MNH as well as additional funding to for RHA (which could well involved MNH rust assets). When PREM first invested in MNH it was backed up by the Bara report which valued assets on a replacement cost and was based on some very questionable assumptions.
PREM shareholders have been funding both Circum and MNH in the recent past with absolutely no return. My firm view is Zulu needs to be split out from the other assets and funding ringfenced solely for its development. Otherwise GR will lose focus as he so easily does.
Still holding quite a few shares here and worried they will be worth much less in a few days time than they currently are, despite the positive developments of the past 2-3 weeks.
AIMHO, Bickmaster.

Hi all,

Lets have a quick analysis of SP performance during the development of the Pilgangoora Mine in Western Australia by Pilbara Minerals. Pilbara is a 200MT resource, and the information below is based on Phase 1 which targeted 2M TPA (tonnes per annum) run of mill producing 314k TPA concentrate and 320k lbs per annum tantalum.

What I am trying to demonstrate is the difference in value at difference stages in resource/mine development, and the significant increases in SP, particularly during the DFS development stage. I have used three points in time during the development of Pilgangoora (set out below) and applied the outputs to PREM further down.

Pilbara
Stage 1. ~15 months before DFS complete - April/May 2015. ~660m shares in issue. Mcap = $24m AUD. SP = $0.04
Stage 2. DFS (Stage 1) Complete - Sep 2016. ~1250m shares in issue. Mcap = $650m AUD. SP = $0.50
Stage 3. First Production - August 2018. ~1740m shares in issue. Mcap = $1,670m AUD. SP $0.96

So from pre DFS to DFS, SP increased 12.5X. And from pre DFS to first production SP increased 24X.

Applying the same logic to PREM:

Stage 1 (where we are now) - 0.25p
Stage 2 (DFS Complete - assume late 2022) - 3.125p
Stage 3 (First Production) - assume late 2024 - 6p

This demonstrates the significant value available to investors during DFS development and in the period between DSF completion and production of first concentrate.

Hope this helps

Bickmaster

Today's RNS needed to deal with Zulu and nothing else. Instead the paragraph below effectively says the MCap is higher now so dilution will be lower so I can get my shopping list out again.

"Complementing this, Premier and MN Holdings Limited ("MNH") continue to develop our mutual interests in the operating Otjozondu Manganese Mine in Namibia. It is also worth noting that anything that the Board of Premier considers to be of value and in the best interest of the Company will attract an overall lower cost in terms of any existing dilution for Premier shareholders as underpinned by the potential value in Zulu."

PREM needs 100% focus on Zulu, not the other sideshows that GR has ended up getting PREM stuck in down the years.

I cannot fathom how GR could not understand how releasing this RNS would have anything other than a negative impact of share price....

After all of the positivity over the past two weeks around the EPO there was a fantastic opportunity to build on this with a positive update on next steps at Zulu.

Instead we are back to the usual GR jam tomorrow type RNS which is awfully written (e.g. wrong date for EPO confirmation) and doesn't provide anything of note to shareholders or the markets apart from:

1. Further RNS to follow by end of the month (i.e. GR doesn't know what to do next and needs more time).
2. Assessing opportunities with MNH. This is code for GR opening the door for dilution and leaving his ole buddy Stephen Dattels take a stake in PREM on the cheap.

There was a great opportunity here to give the market confidence and bolster the SP rather than cut the legs out from under it. It was also an opportunity to get someone in with experience and cash rather. There will be more dilution here which ever way this moves forward but I would prefer dilution from a JV with a major (which would allow GR move aside) rather than an opaque deal with MNH to leave GR get his buddies involved on the cheap.

Still holding but very disappointed as GR has missed the boat once again.

Bickmaster

Can I get a vowel please Carol. O

Well done Bongoblu. Good to hear you managed to recover the position here. I was down £30k+ at one stage as well. Lets hope GR does a good deal on the back of the EPO now and doesn't do a soft deal to let Dattels in on the action!!

The stars are starting to align. No reason we won’t see 0.2 in the run up to next Friday and 0.5 if we get the EPO confirmation. It’s been a long 7.5 years.