Member Info for Bickmaster84

The main problem here is that we are unlikely to have a DFS finished until early 2023 and it is much more likely to cost around $10m rather than the $5.1m he has previously quoted. So any delays and additional fundraises will be seen as negative and will take the gloss off any good grades which will hopefully be reported. Whereas if GR published a properly costed programme which was based on drilling Xm per month it would give us all something measurable. It would definitely see the SP dive when the news would first be released but would mean the bad news is out of the way now rather than keeping the handbrake on the SP at a later stage. It would also mean he would be accountable against measurable targets to I have no doubt he wont go down that road.

Bickmaster

Probably quite unrealistic. I’d be expecting end of August for initial unverified results at the earliest.

Bootieone,

Excellent post. It is easy to see why Dattels and Co. want to jump ship from Circum to Zulu.

Bickmaster

Raydaar,

RHA sitting quietly doing nothing is the best thing for us. GR does not need the distraction when Zulu is where the prize is. Any further spending on RHA is throwing good money after bad. I know people will say it would need to be funded by NIEEF (not going to happen) or an off-taker. What off-taker in their right mind would through $1.5 - $2m at a mine which has never produced and has been sitting rusting for 3-4 years. If PREM could get a few $m for RHA and sell it in the morning I would see that as being a very good outcome for shareholders.

Bickmaster

With regards to the post below, the difference between PREM and Pilbara is that Pilbara had a competent management team. They didn't mess around for 3 months when they should have been drilling. They kept shareholders updated rather than putting up a few photos on Twitter and deleting them a few minutes later when they realised they had made a big mistake.

GR needs to pull his socks up and tell us what the plan is. Posting a video of a single rig on Twitter, whilst an improvement, doesn't cut it for me. I'd be much happier if I got a weekly or fortnightly update saying there are now X drills on site and they achieved X metres this week/fortnight. Will we ever get this from George? Not a hope in hell as it would mean he would need to deliver against a target and take some accountability.

Pilbara were also focussed solely on what they were doing - developing a DFS for a major Lithium deposit. They knew the value of their asset. GR on the other hand is continuing to waste time and shareholder's money giving loans to MNH that we will never get back, they will simply be converted to shares in a company which isn't delivering. He is also continuing to look for other assets when he should be focussed on one thing and one thing only - the Zulu EPO. $5.1m has been mentioned in the past as the estimated cost of the EPO. Personally, I think PREM will be doing well to do it for $10m given the size of the area - though that is down to the $5.1m being wrong in the first place. GR knows this himself but doesn't want to announce it as, like most of his updates, it will be taken negatively.

GR needs to fully focus on the task at hand and tighten the purse strings so he is spending on EPO alone. Every $1 spent on the EPO, all going well, should return about $20 in value or potentially more. Every $1 spent on RHA has returned about $0.02. Every $1 spent on MNH has returned a big fat $0.00. Don't get me started on the other assets.

Still holding here but the next few months are crucial to get as much drilling done as possible before the rainy season hits. In an ideal world all the drilling would have been completed by November but I don't thing there's any chance of that happening now.

We need visible progress on the drilling programme and regular updates, at least a minimum of every two weeks to drive the SP up. Initially this will be no of rigs and metres drilled but as samples are analysed it could include highlights of high grades hit at certain intersections.

I am however a realist and I am confident George will continue to keep us in the dark with spurious and vague updates. Lets hope he puts shareholders first for once and doesn't do a soft deal to bring his buddies in on this when he was very much against the premise of a JV just a few months ago.

The SP is starting to slide here again. I can't see it dropping much below about 0.16 but the truth of the matter is the SP should be increasing rather than drifting.

Good luck all,

Here is a post of mine from 21 March.

Hi all,

Lets have a quick analysis of SP performance during the development of the Pilgangoora Mine in Western Australia by Pilbara Minerals. Pilbara is a 200MT resource, and the information below is based on Phase 1 which targeted 2M TPA (tonnes per annum) run of mill producing 314k TPA concentrate and 320k lbs per annum tantalum.

What I am trying to demonstrate is the difference in value at difference stages in resource/mine development, and the significant increases in SP, particularly during the DFS development stage. I have used three points in time during the development of Pilgangoora (set out below) and applied the outputs to PREM further down.

Pilbara
Stage 1. ~15 months before DFS complete - April/May 2015. ~660m shares in issue. Mcap = $24m AUD. SP = $0.04
Stage 2. DFS (Stage 1) Complete - Sep 2016. ~1250m shares in issue. Mcap = $650m AUD. SP = $0.50
Stage 3. First Production - August 2018. ~1740m shares in issue. Mcap = $1,670m AUD. SP $0.96

So from pre DFS to DFS, SP increased 12.5X. And from pre DFS to first production SP increased 24X.

Applying the same logic to PREM:

Stage 1 (where we are now) - 0.25p
Stage 2 (DFS Complete - assume late 2022) - 3.125p
Stage 3 (First Production) - assume late 2024 - 6p

This demonstrates the significant value available to investors during DFS development and in the period between DSF completion and production of first concentrate.

Hope this helps

Bickmaster

Does anyone know why FFWD haven't RNS their involvement with Ciitech, as set out in FPP's RNS yesterday? FFWD RNS everything they can, generally as soon as they can, so I am struggling to understand why they didn't not release a RNS in relation to the Ciitech CLNs. Or has it been RNS'd and I missed it?

Bickmaster

Shareholder19,

You’ve got that completely wrong. They’re predicting inflation of 3%, not interest rates, which are at an all time low, meaning money is cheap for developers etc.

You will see from my posts in the past few days that I am sceptical about the value of a merger to PREM shareholders. Instead I believe GR is seeking to get his mates in on Zulu given that nothing is likely to happen with Circum for some time.

If there is any substance to the rumours and it is not the usual pump and dump (though the large buys would suggest otherwise) it will be very interesting to understand why there has been a fundamental change in strategy in less than 3 months regarding PREM's willingness to enter into a JV or similar.

Do I think George will clearly set out what has changed and how this now makes sense when it wasn't attractive just 12 weeks ago? Absolutely not, as he has never been capable or willing to provide clarity in any RNS, apart from those where he is announcing a placing.

Bickmaster

Snowking

You stated below 'Circum , I suspect the developments are better than the market expects . Perhaps a circum liquidity event is closer than we think , but I agree again with your comments.'

Your comments are getting looser and looser as time goes on. The use of 'perhaps', 'suspect' and 'expect' are becoming much more regular. Make sure you social distance from GR, the BS may be contagious!!

Bickmaster

mppotus

Perhaps a merger would be sold on the basis of an 'imminent' Circum liquidity event to get shareholders on board? If that is the case I would be very sceptical on whether a merger is in the best interests of PREM shareholders.

We all know Circum's liquidity event has been 'imminent' for a number of years. The region in which Circum is located is in the middle of a civil war and famine. All you have to do is run a search for 'Tigray War' or 'Adigrat massacres' and you will have a choice of numerous articles from the past few days about incidents which have taken place in the area, including in Adigrat and Hawzen which are less than 100km from Circum's base in the Danakil Desert.

Some may call this deramping but I couldn't see an IPO coming along too quickly for an asset in this area. If anything it would provide clear underpinning why the Circum team want to get in on Zulu now as there is little change in them being able to do anything with Circum for a number of years until the political situation is sorted.

Bickmaster

Snowking,

Hopefully that is the case (i.e. MNH is not a runner). Shaw River couldn't make Otjozondu work before MNH and I cant see any reason why things would have changed substantially since then. My worry has always been that it is too far from market without having suitable rail infrastructure in place and the logistics costs make running a profitable mine difficult if not impossible.

That would mean PREM have only wasted $1.9m on acquiring the 19% interest in MNH to date over the past 18 months, plus the additional costs of legal advice, due diligence (Bara report etc. which was shown to be written on very questionable assumptions) whilst also distracting management from value generating activities. Imagine is the $1.9m had been spent to a DFS for the area which was under licence at Zulu...

I sincerely hope PREM doesn't spend another penny on MNH (or RHA) and focusses entirely on Zulu. However I fear the worst, that MNH and RHA will be used as part of a deal with Circum when they have very little, if any, worth.

Bickmaster

Just playing devil's advocate here but can anyone give me a reason why Circum merging with PREM is a good thing for PREM?

Circum are not listed and have a resource which they haven't been able to do anything with for the past number of years because of economic and political stability issues, whereas PREM (since the EPO) have a very attractive asset which they can DFS ( my estimate is by end of 2022) and bring to a market where investors are very keen to acquire such assets (Ganfeng's offer for Bacanora demonstrates this).

We need to leave RHA and MNH out of this. They are like Cinderella's ugly stepsisters in the equation. We cannot be sold a deal with Circum based on the benefits they can bring to RHA/MNH when 95% of PREM's value is in Zulu. What benefits do they bring to Zulu? And more importantly why have they waited for the assets to be derisked through the granting of the EPO before coming onboard?

If the rise is on the back of a PREM Circum merger then something doesn't feel quite right to me... especially given the amount of time the auditors have spend at MNH... We also know RHA is a dud from the previous $20m spent on it and there is no point in throwing good money after bad. We also need to remember than PREM shareholders have funded a lot of Circum's costs over the past few years, buying back shares which were originally owned by PREM at a substantial premium to what they were sold for.

Glad to get everyone's views.

Bickmaster

Snowking,

In response to your post of 19.56 from yesterday stating 'the spodumene is really special at zulu and is higher grade than 6% so will get a premium price , prem confirmed that to me.'

That is incredibly reassuring to know. However until it is provided in a RNS I will stick to the 1.06% provided in previous RNSs. If *************** had told us in the past had come to pass, I think there is a good chance we would all be retired by now.

Given the spodumene is so special its an absolute shame GR can't get a drilling programme in place to progress the DFS, let along get some lithium out of the ground.

Bickmaster

Very positive and unexpected price movements on Friday. Let's hope there's some substance behind it and we get further news in a timely manner to keep the momentum going.

Tedoby, you state below that ''Zulu's Spodumene has been tested .to show it's higher than 7% grade. It should therefore be more attractive and command a premium to the normal market prices.'' Can you let me know where this was RNSd is as I must have missed it previously. I am aware certain samples showed up to 4% Lithium concentrations for certain strike intersections but lets not forget these intersections are for short distanced and the inferred resource at the moment is 20.1 million tonnes grading 1.06% Li2O. The current DFS programme will not doubt increase the size of the resources and if the grading can also be improved that would be a major bonus. Notwithstanding this, my understanding is PREM will still have to run and refine its material to get it to the 6% suitable to sell on to third parties. At the end of the day the 6% market is the 6% market and I do not see buyers paying a premium above market rates. The benefit for PREM would be lower production costs rather than achieve a higher sales price.

Let's hope the news that will hopefully be forthcoming in the next 2 weeks (my expectation is early July) is actually some proper news and not some type of corporate restructuring which doesn't provide any transparency or benefit to shareholders. We need real news, not a moving of the goalposts to try to paint over the lack of delivery on the current drilling programme. I am still wary of GRs ties to Circum and MNH and would not want to see a deal where PREM gives away a percentage of Zulu as part of a larger deal involving Dattels rather than doing something competitively via the market. I've said it before and I will say it again, PREM shareholders have been funding Circum and MNH for some time now with absolutely no benefit when the money should have been spent on progressing the Zulu DFS.

Fingers crossed for the near term future and I may even take another 10m of these this week or early next week, depending on price.

Bickmaster

Those photos on Twitter (which have now been removed) show why GR's RNSs cannot be trusted. One of the best pieces of advice I ever received was to under-promise and over-deliver. Unfortunately for us GR has been over-promising and under-delivering (or not delivering at all) for about 8 years now. Time for him to hand this over to someone reputable as he is not the right person to take PREM forward. There is too much at stake with Zulu for him to be allowed mess it up.

Bickmaster

Those photos on Twitter (which have now been removed) show why GR's RNSs cannot be trusted. One of the best pieces of advice I ever received was to under-promise and over-deliver. Unfortunately for us GR HAS

Yes, if you are expecting £4-£5 you are barking up the wrong tree.

The new shares in the company are being issued at 5.25p. I am expecting 12-15p as a minimum once it comes out of suspension. It will be driven by sentiment (other CBD players like KNB have done very well) but more important is the update we will get from the new Board when it relists, setting out opportunities etc.

Snowking,

If its the same crystal ball which has been around for the last few years I would give Mystic Meg a call to check whether it is still within warranty as it clearly isn't working.

Another podcast and another opportunity missed to provide a substantive update to shareholders and the market. Nowhere in the podcast did GR actually say drilling is now taking place. He said they are finishing opening up the last piece of road. Why would you not start drilling in other locations while that work on the road is being undertaken. Its not like the DFS area is small and he is limited to drilling locations.

So it will be the end of the month before we get another update and we are still none the wiser about the end of mobilisation and the start of drilling. I was involved in a large geotechnical programme in the UK a few years ago and we got all of the drilling done in 4 months. Mobilisation took a week.

EPO was 12th March. It is looking like it will be at least 3 months to get work underway which just isn't acceptable. It isn't as if drilling rigs are short on the ground in Zimbabwe.

He also said the raise would ensure there would be 'no delay at any point in time with the DFS at Zulu'. That is clearly wrong. He said camp construction is underway. This was supposed to have been done already based on previous RNS. GR needs to be reminded the heading of the 31 March RNS was 'Initiation of Definitive Feasibility Study at Zulu.' It doesn't appear there has been much progress.

Timeframe of 14 months - 'this hasn't changed at this time'. 'I am not a fan of his emphasis of 'at this time'.

No update on anything else. I strongly think GR is still making it up as he goes along, the same as he has been doing for the last 8 years.

Those unfamiliar with my posts will see this as a negative post. I would call it sceptical rather than negative as unfortunately I am all too familiar with GR and his ways of doing (or not doing) business.

Bickmaster

Snowking,

I am hoping you are right that this week is the week we get news.

I think one of the main questions we need to ask is whether raising funds by any means other than placing is beneficial to shareholders. GR has shown on multiple occasions that he is incapable of doing a good deal. Just look at Circum, TCT, MNH, RHA. Placings comes with a cost in terms of dilution but there is less commercial risk attached. My fear is GR produces a RNS which outlines a deal so complex he doesn't understanding it himself and it doesn't do what is was supposed to. I would be even more suspicious if his mate Dattels is on the other side. He has a reputation as a superstar in the mining world but GR's links to him have not had any benefits whatsoever for PREM shareholders. Indeed, we have been funding Circum for a few years and seem to be taking the same approach with MNH (I wonder how those auditors are getting on, they seem to be taking a long time to let us know whether MNH is profitable or otherwise, despite the assurances they have more plant than the rest of Africa put together).

The clock is still ticking and we are 6 months from rainy season. The prospects of getting a timely DFS are reducing day by day so the sooner some affirmative action is taken the better.

A RNS clearly setting out the structure of a deal is needed. We have had enough fluff down the years.

Good luck.

Bickmaster