RE: Advice use the car13 May 2020 11:23
AA
On the most recent occasions that Tempus has looked at the AA — in December 2018 and November 2019 — it has recommended buying the shares.
Despite strong evidence that a turnaround at the roadside recovery group and insurer has been bearing fruit, the stock has continued to drop. It has fallen even further as the onset of coronavirus reduced both the number of drivers on the roads and emergency callouts.
An AA road service scout finds time to give some first aid in 1949
An AA road service scout finds time to give some first aid in 1949
PA
The shares, down 1¾p or 6.5 per cent at 26p, have lost just under 90 per cent since being listed for 250p in 2014. Yet while Covid-19 might complicate life for the AA, it doesn’t alter the investment proposition. The simple truth may be that for many investors the company’s debt burden of £2.6 billion is just too high.
The AA was founded in 1905 to serve motorists. It has just over 3.2 million individual members who pay by subscription and a further nine million business customers.
Despite the crisis, the group has experienced some benefits. It replaced 27,000 flat or burnt-out batteries last month, way above its average run rate of 17,000, boosting its sale of parts. Having to tow away and store fewer vehicles has also reduced the AA’s garage bill.
Having managed to increase its membership last year, albeit by a meagre 0.2 per cent, the company reckons that the number will fall over the six months to the end of July before recovering. Assuming a staged return to normality, performance this year will be only slightly down on last.
Simon Breakwell, 54, chief executive, has delivered on all of his promises, increasing membership, raising profit and improving cashflow and insurance sales. The £2.6 billion debt burden, at just under nine times trading profits, is way too high, but the AA is slowly bringing it down and refinancing tranches. Thankfully it has no capital to repay until 2022. It states that it is in no danger of breaching its debt covenants and has just over £220 million in available credit facilities.
With the dividend suspended the shares have no yield, but they trade at a rock bottom valuation of 2.4 times Citigroup’s forecast earnings. The case stands.
Advice Buy
Why It should trade through this and bring debts down