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Looks like they sold shares and replaced most with a CFD long. Not sure if it was tactical to dip below 10% (however slight).
Any views on how Q1 went for Plus? Also any idea when the update will be? Looks to be either the first or second Tues of the month (so 5th or 12th Apr).
I have them at roughly 180m in customer income, but would be disappointed with less given how volatile the markets have been.
Sports spread betting, perhaps. The FCA launched reviews and increased regulations to major degrees over the past few years - there's literally no chance of it being included in the upcoming gambling review. "Responsibility for spread betting and binary betting lies with the Financial Conduct Authority."
There's always going to be regulatory risks with CFD/SB providers (a legitimate reason to not invest), but there's no way they'd let the gambling commission have any oversight of financial products, this is what the FCA is for.
Equally, not convinced on the PwC argument. The share price is back to the same level as one week ago, it's hardly a panic. Imo most likely is a lightly trade stock, on final day of tax year, stock was significantly below 52-week high (48% below) yet 37% above the lows from only last month. Maybe the market was slightly skeptical of the share buyback program. For example, if CMC's share price had continued falling, it'd likely have been dropped from the FTSE250 at roughly 190p a share (roughly 10% further from the lows).
Strange if it's your only reason to not invest. I'm fairly sure that financial spread betting doesn't come under the remit of the gambling review. Spread betting isn't covered by the Gambling Act 2005. Any regulatory framework for SB is in the perimeter of the FCA, and I doubt they will tighten regulations after already doing so in 2018... Happy to be corrected.
"due to on-going investment in strategic markets to attract high value customers"
The market values the overall CMC business as a spread-bet / CFD provider as only 15-20% of revenues are from the non-leveraged or stockbroking segment.
In the most recent half-year update, CMC generated £24.2m revenue from non-leveraged. Compare this with the most recent half-year update from interactive investor which had net revenue of £76.1m. So CMC is basically 1/3 of the size and about to enter the UK market, which could lead to substantial growth. Abrdn just acquired ii for £1.5bn (which is called a "no-brainer" by the Abrdn CEO in FT today). OK... well CMC's market cap is only £670m and has £370m in net cash. Splitting the company *could* unlock shareholder value.
TCMI have sold at a huge discount... a US tech centric PE firm whose portfolio has been wrecked YTD. e.g. They were early investors in firms like Peloton and even bought more Peloton as recently as Dec 2021...
18, this is nothing to do with exit liquidity, sure there's now an overhang of supply of IG shares bought at 780p, but it's a discount that makes no sense fundamentally.
Easy buy on this sell-off. TCMI were an early investor in tastytrade, and want to cash-out since IG have acquired. They will have seen the bad RobinHood earnings last night and wrongly thought that IG is a similar business. Their portfolio will also be down heavily YTD so it makes some sense that they'd want/need to raise some liquidity on a position that shows profit.
I understand the concerns about rising costs - tastytrade is loss making still and in early growth stages, which is in complete contrast to the IG business. I also don't like the acquisition as I'm sure it destroyed shareholder value, but these results look good... we've now had 7 consecutive quarters of revenue above £200m for IG (ex. tt). Pre-covid quarterly revenues were averaging £130m or so.
"Excluding tastytrade, operating costs were down 1% on H1 FY21."
The 22% increase in operating costs is due to tastytrade acquisition though. It's not a like-for-like comparison, as far as I can tell.
No new information in the update apart from the statement about launching the UK investment platform in first half of the year. Slightly disappointed about the reiteration of income guidance, but they do like to sandbag results (i.e. Q3 update last year, they guided upper end of market consensus which was £370-387.5m, and they ultimately did £399.6m).
I think current analyst consensus is for a 10p dividend per share for FY22, based on 263m for revenue. This would give a dividend yield of 4.3%, so not exactly high. I'm personally expecting close to 300m for revenue, giving a dividend per share of 14-15p... still not an insanely high yield, but I'm not invested in CMC for the divi.
Whole market is down... FTSE250 down 2.6%.
I'm expecting them to revise full year revenue expectations upwards. Last update they were at 250-280m and I'll be disappointed if that doesn't get revised upwards to 270-300m. I presume the market is thinking along the same lines? So if they reiterate at 250-280m then share price will fall.
I mean, yes, THG wrote Softbank a call option on the ingenuity business (it's nothing to do with dealers, THG is the other side as far as I understand it), which is hardly an options market as it's not tradeable and irrelevant to what the post was trying to claim about option expiry.
@Mando Are you in the right forum? Not sure any UK stocks have an options market. I'm also fairly unconvinced that the short interest is relevant in this case (it's around 3% of float according to various sources).
Anyone have an estimate for Q4 results? Looks like analyst consensus is for slightly below 100m in total revenue, but I imagine the market is pricing a decent chunk higher than that.
How so? The market was roughly 50/50 on rate rise or unch.
71% of traders on Plus are long GBP/USD.