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@madstork
Your arguments are weak, which makes your short investment case also. You compare YTD22 data with 2019 of course. Bear in mind that early 2019 included Aquaman over beginning of January which did pretty well. You can argue this year includes spider man, but not to the same extent as 2019 ytd data includes aquaman.
So, please stop spreading some speculation. Coming Friday we will see how bad the situation at Cineplex will be and as such the stronger the negotiation positin for cineworld becomes. You should evaluate the situation over 1H22, and there is sufficient strong film slate to come to support the financials. In addition, the potential of structural cost savings (lower amount of fte, rent reduction, cost cutting on overhead) is heavily underestimated which should come at the benefit of better free cash flow generation.
The fact that High Bridge and Whitebox are increasing their position in CINE’s convertible bond (and simply hedge their position by shorting the shares) confirms that these guys believe the equity will jump dramatically higher and convert later on debt to equity when applicable.
I want to flag that we have seen indeed shorters in the shares (eg whitebox advisors & high bridge) to increase their position over recent week. However, i believe it doesn’t look as negative as perceived. These type of alternative institutional investors are typically involved in convertible bonds and they hedge their position by shorting the shares. Having increased their short in the shares they rather likely increased their position in the convertible bond of CINEWORLD.
I read that rather as a positive instead of assuming these guys are simply shorting the shares.
Whitebox advisors did this already earlier with AMC : https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2A522A
Btw; i am long cineworld heavily.
Some short positions should be reviewed from the sense that it could be a hedge for these institutionals being holders of Cineworld’s convertible bond. So not sure what the case is for high bridge
For some reason, some links are blocked. But go to website of short tracker.co.uk or research-three.com and there you will see it. Reduction of 0.14%.
Apologies guys, LSE is blocking my links.
But this one should work. https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15FWH70/ You can see they further reduced position from 1.68% to 1.54% (filing on 18th). There is more to come, they are close to their average price here and we continue to move upwards.
https://*********************/ShortInterestTracker/CompanyData?companyId=GB00B15FWH70&viewOnMobile=True
https://*********************/ShortInterestTracker/CompanyData?companyId=GB00B15FWH70&viewOnMobile=True
DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE?!
Indeed, k2 associates further reduces short position… as one of my previous posts stated these guys are nearing their average price position. They are getting afraid and in imminent need to cover position. This is only starting of further short coverage.
@hexam
It was already included under contingent liability at 1H21 reporting, but the question is do you record a provision or not. So far, they didn’t do it which is normal because before the court judgement cineworld concluded they didn’t do anything wrong by pulling the deal (which i fully support) because if you record a provision you already admit your fault.
The question is ofcourse now if they need to record a provision after the court ruling. If they need to do it, it will hit ebitda (only in the P&L, not in cash flow). But i assume, given their view is unchanged nevertheless the court ruling, it can be they still mention it under contingent liabilities without any accounting for it.
Btw; i am long cineworld to be clear
@Giantsquid
Please stop trying to fool people. We all know the risk/return profile of cineworld. The motley articles you are referring are worthless, just like the numbers you are mentioning. Leasing liabilities aren’t some debt facilities you need to repay at once. They are spread over a very long period. So please stop trying to confuse or scare off people with wrong arguments
K2 associates firstly reported short positionof 1.04% on Nov 26. Share price stood at that moment at 48gbp. They further boosted short position on 12 dec (share price stood at 44gbp) to 1.6%. On dec 16 they further increased short position to 1.77% (share price stood at 31.13 gbp). I think some of these shorters like K2 are getting near their average price and will be in need of covering position if you ask me
https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/01/17/will-the-cineworld-share-price-double-in-2022/
They already sound less bearish. Can someone pls call those ******s and explain them cineworld’s debt pile isn’t $8bn… they always include leasing liabilities which is WRONG
Can someone pls explain how a dual listing (via ADRs)? How do you raise money? And do you dilute shareholders? Thx
https://*********************/ShortInterestTracker/CompanyData?companyId=GB00B15FWH70&viewOnMobile=True
K2 has started to cover position since 12th of January
https://*********************/ShortInterestTracker/CompanyData?companyId=GB00B15FWH70&viewOnMobile=True