Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
https://www.boxofficepro.com/early-weekend-report-the-batman-scores-21-6m-from-domestic-previews/
Could indeed be the case
They are clearly lowering exposure into results
Did I miss something except from the overall market sentiment?
AMC numbers were good yday, most was already known, cash generation Q4 was strong,..
Lloyd
Always available on cinemark investor relations website
Net income positive in q4, not a surprise, but positive sign. Clearly also positively looking into the future as they will continue to build new cinemas in 2022 and beyond. Over q4 very strong results for the US operations
@giantsquid
I just got a message from Putin asking if you can share with us your coordinates of location, he wants to drop bombs
Pretty sure Pepsi is covering a big chunk of the missed revenues for tickets because of the lowered pricing in return for full marketing. And indeed, full house = everyone spending lots of money on food/beverages. Massive successful campaign, on top of that, very likely excessive marketing for Batman to be seen in cinemas in order to warm up all attendants to come back around one week later.
@hexam
What interesting from the financials of cinemark and amc will be is the following; 1) we are indeed aware of box office revenues and concession. However, it would be great to get indications on what does that mean in terms of profitability? Do we see over Q4 already attractive profitability levels? Is the higher spend per person also supportive for the margin? What does it imply if revenues go up going forward? Yes, cinema operators were free cash flow positive in Q4, but how strongly? Yes, we know that CINE has a larger drag because of higher interest expenses… but all this could create more comfort already on how (in)supportive the real numbers of q4 are and subsequently can be considered as precedent of what’s about to follow in 2022. We have seen at some smaller cinema operators (eg Everyman) that profitability did develop pretty positive in q4. Now we also need confirmation for the US.
Again, if these aspects are constructive, it will help CINE to leverage all these elements in scenario’s where they might be sitting around the table with lenders.
Next readx is friday 25/2 before market, cinemark publishing q4 / fy results. Good readx how us cinema industry is doing to date since september
Giantsh*t, iparsnip and 77blackbridge tend to be wrong againd and show another time little understanding/knowledge of financial markets.
Exposure to the overall risk of Ukrainecrisis for Cineworld is limited. While general markets are hit caused by this uncertainty, the impact on Cineworld is low. Simply, as described by others, direct exposure of Cineworld is close to zero, cinema in general will not see closures, people might be travelling less and more going to entertainment closer to home. Our share price is already pricing in lots of other uncertainties (court ruling, high leverage) and therefore Putin’s moves is of ‘little importance’ to Cineworld’s investment case at this stage.
As long as I continue to note that the arguments of people being short are that weak (I really hope for K2 they have better reasons to be short than our three friends over here), my comfort on my long position in CINE grows day by day. Not only because fundamentals improve gradually, but shorters become desperate on what should bring down CINE shares.
It continues to surprise me how many stupid people are allowed to write articles and even their articles are being spread. For once and only, Cineworld’s debt pile should be analyzed EXCLUDING lease liabilities…
Over recent weeks we have seen some posts of individuals trying to scare off some of us by stating some questions or remarks and putting them out of context. Here some more flavor:
1) ‘2022 base case scenario: 90% of 2019 levels’. To be clear this is on admissions level and NOT on revenue. Firstly, we need to judge this over a full 2022. Secondly, it is correct YTD22 has not been great so far. Anyhow, bear in mind that January 2019 included strong admissions from Aquaman. Nevertheless, I do agree admissions need to improve further. With strong upcoming movie slate, this will enhance. Lastly, given spend per person on Food & Beverage has been at record high (and don’t forget cinema operators make HUGE margins on this) there is upside from here to the revenue line. Subsequently, it is still relevant to look at admission levels, but in a scenario where we come a bit short this can largely be compensated by F&B sales.
2) ‘Cineworld’s debt pile is extremely high’; mid 2022 Cineworld is undergoing covenant test of 5x Ebitda. The long-term target leverage for Cineworld is 3-3.5x net debt/EBITDA. People are wrongly stating that the debt pile is ‘unmanageable’. If we continue to be generating cash flow positive as from 4q21 going forward, we will see headroom for paying down debt. First major debt redemption only occurs in 2024, but Cineworld will have the ability to early debt redemption. Over the recent 18 months structural cost savings have been realized on close to all cost items; payroll, rent, maintenance,.. we have closed loss-making locations which should support the margin. In addition, deferred rent payments are spread over 3-5 years, implying cineworld will pay 6-7million extra rent per month for the coming 3-5 years, easily solved without harming landlord relationships and CINE liquidity. Even in a scenario where we could face breach of covenants (eg because we still need to pay a fee to cineplex regard the court ruling), Cineworld is in a good position to renegotiate a waiver. The business is clearly improving, and if it would all be that bad, lenders wouldn’t allow Cineworld to continue to invest that significant in the business (eg refurbishments, new projectors, greenfield,..). As a result of structural cost savings, improved sales mix (higher spend per person on F&B), this clearly uplifts EBITDA absolutely and relatively, which is strongly supportive for the covenant test.
More and more cinema chains report strong H2 results. To name an example; Kinepolis (1.000 screens) generated €70m positive cash flow in 2h21 while in 1h21 this was still -€40m 1h21. Yes, i know, they are not 100% comparable to cineworld (less debt, they own 50% of their real estate, other regions). But the overall conclusion is; cinemas are again generating cash thanks to improved market situation, realized structural cost savings, and this enables them to bring down leverage. It will continue over 2022 (sorry, it will accelerate over 2022) and yes, also cineworld (despite its larger debt pile and the overhang of the court rule with cineplex) will experience these improvements.
Subsequently, it will be able to: 1) renegotiate with its lenders (why? Simply because also they will see that credibility of cineworld improves each month), resulting in potential covenant waiver and restructuring of debt items. I believe cineworld will even be able to already pay down some debt near the end of the year to further lower the drag of financial interest expense) and 2) to continue to invest in the business
@blackbridge
Your comments are so short sighted and meaningless. If russia invades ukraine, the whole stock market will collapse ******. So strange you try to emphasize how largely this would specifically impact cineworld
Box office chief analyst Shawn Robbins says the following on his linkedin:
“ Initial tracking and pre-sales for #TheBatman look very encouraging, well ahead of pandemic era movies not named #SpiderManNoWayHome even when factoring out THE BATMAN's Tuesday and Wednesday previews. Social tracking models remain strong as well.
Premium screens (IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Regal RPX and ScreenX, and the like) are generating the lion's share of interest so far. Regular screens are not seeing a ton of sales yet, but that's expected this early in the cycle with so many showtimes available (which are rivaling NO WAY HOME, due in part to THE BATMAN's near-three-hour length and a drought of late winter releases in theaters).
The Warner Bros. Pictures marketing engine hasn't fully kicked in yet, but it's coming.
Now, to see what kind of momentum the film can build over the next three weeks.”
LOOKING FORWARD TO NEXT WEEK
@giantsh*t
Please stop fooling around. Cinemas are not cyclical/sensitive to economic fluctuations. They are not! I really hope you will lose lots of money with your short in Cineworld.
@giantsh*t
Please stop continuously trying to pinpoint on NAV. Since when are cinema chains valued per NAV?
THIS IS EPIC!
Not only the trailer itself, but it is very clear that movie studios have understood that people are clearly returning to the movie. As such, all blockbusters are up again to a very good, extensive marketing period ahead of the release.
For those ******s that haven’t yet understood what’s happening (uuugh giantsh*t), and why 2022 is going to be a blow out of recovery for the industy;
1) the big screen is returning
2) blockbusters released in movie theatres overall perform better in terms of total revenues generated for movie studios given a release on the big screen goes hand in hand with good marketing and awareness and as such it also performs better afterwards at home/streaming
3) shrinking theatrical window is not an issue (eg Spiderman) because it is proven that the majority of box office revenues is generated within a time frame of 2-4 weeks after release
4) the real threat of cinemas is not streaming. Cinema has survived world wars, introduction of cassette, dvds, downloading, digitalization,.. and also streaming. What is threat of cinema? Historical annual data of box offices has shown that movie attendance competes with: 1) weather conditions and 2) big events (festivals, sporting events,..). In 2022 there are little big sport events beside world championship in november (which ends btw BEFORE the release of aquaman/avatar).
5) there is a major correlation between strength of box office and movie slate. IF you are not yet convinced, please have a look at the historical top 25 movies in terms of box office revenues. History shows that one blockbuster can make the year of a movie operator. Imagine what 5? 7? blockbusters in the same year can do to movie theatres. 2022 will be remembered as an exceptional year in the movie industry history due to the high amount of single blockbusters being released. In addition, plural movies have an earlier movie / sequel being ranked in the top-25 box offices ever (eg. Avatar, Aquaman, Jurassic World,..). AND yes, also Spider man did. I suppose I don’t have to explain you what records Spiderman reached over recent month.
It is pretty clear that if all these strong fundamentals play out, Cineworld is clearly getting out of these more volatile circumstances.
The dispute with Cineplex is unpleasant but solvable. To all these ******s referring to the debt pile of Cineworld and including lease liabilities, I hope so you subsequently also include depreciation right of use assets when you apply a DCF valuation or EBITDA multiple (as such you understand fair value per share is not reflected in today’s price). In addition, we have more than two years before the 1st major debt redemption takes place. In the mean time, generated FCF can be used to pay down debt slightly, which: 1) boost further FCF and 2) eases the negotiation to refinance current debt items in 2 years at more attractive terms. I still strongly believe that we hugely underestimate the upside of realized long-term co
The funny thing, is there any qualified qualitative journalist / freelance writer at Motley. They all describe themselves as devoted ‘value stock’ investors / experts, but none of them (or at least very few) seem to have relevant experience in the finance industry (not that this is a prerequisite, but at least it would give more reliability to their calls).