Member Info for besucool

Still a long way to go yet so wouldn't be celebrating yet unless you have sold out on the rise for a profit. I'll hold my hands up and say Honestly, this share really does baffle me. Everything you look at with CPR suggests that it is tremendously overvalued. If anything, even at 3quid it still would be imo.

any thoughts????results were dire from what i read!!

Absolutely agree. Anyone buying this share or thinking about it needs only go into there nearest store and see how empty it is.

...never average down is one of the most important rules i have learnt in trading the hard way as all it does is tie up your capital (and emotions) further when there are other better opportunities. Why anybody would want to buy more shares in HOME is beyond me, it looks like throwing good money after bad. But each to their own. Only way to make money from HOME is shorting this, and I may just jump in at the right levels.

Well I'm glad you are keeping a balanced portfolio mate to hedge against any loses. GL with HOME, you are a braver man than me. Agreed on both accounts, wouldnt be surprised to see a dead cat bounce tomo here and the China effort does seem a bit half hearted, 10 years too late as you say. I'll have a wee snoop on coal of Africa but I tend to stay away from that sector having been badly burnt in the past. GLA

Also deduct goodwill as well if you want a more accurate picture of the NAV speaking as a (former) Accountant. No offense, but no way is it worth intrinsically close to the 329p based on NAV you quoted or wherever you got that source from. Should deduct at least another 1541.3m from that figure as well for Goodwill and as what kline said, the intangibles at 108m (im using figures from FT site). Puts current market cap at fair value imo or slightly undervalued in NAV terms but as everyone has stated there is good reason for that. Results weren't good as expected, Argos was more than just a bad showing and only made up from Homebase. I would not be so confident of this China joint venture as well. Anybody who has been to China will know there are cheap knock offs everywhere of anything and everything. I'm afraid the only sort of thing that would work in China from a British/foreign retailing point of view is high value quality luxurious brand names/goods that target high net worth individuals, the growing upper echelons. In terms of selling middle/lower end electrical goods there is more than enough of that going around China unless you can compete on the price front, and nobody competes better on price than the Chinese which is what most of the Chinese consumer public care about tbh. I lived in Beijing for a year so its my own observation back in 2005-6 anyway. The details they released are not the clearest but this move seems to be a little too little too late and management getting slightly desperate-obviously still early days though for this venture to pan out if it produces anything worthwhile in the long run. GLA to those still holding here, I feel there is more downward to go imo though before it settles. They really need to have an outstanding Christmas to restore confidence imo.

no worries. GL anyway with HOME.

think the price would have been 200 rather than 170 if we are taking today's price at 120 and using it as the 40% drop.

Yes definitely I would take a 40% loss anytime rather than suffer more. Sit tight for 4% dividend and let this decrease to 90p or worse! I know what I would choose, definitely I would take the loss but that's my own opinion. If you didn't see a drop in 40% what makes you confident of this not going to drop a further % over time or it turning back to the levels you bought in at? People tend to forget that when something drops 50% from current levels that it needs to increase 100% to get back to its original levels. "Hoping" for a turnaround is exactly that, just hoping and that is more like gambling than investing/trading. And I definitely would never ever average down on a position. Best to remain unemotional when it comes to stocks you own and view it all objectively and from a neutral point of view. My own general rule of thumb is for large cap stocks I plan for a 20% drop, for mid caps like HOME its 40% from when I buy in at, whilst smaller caps I plan for 50-60% loss. Obviously Stocks and shares can be volatile so its all the amount of capital I am willing to risk in each trade that I am happy with. I always plan for the worse now, not for the best which is a mistake I have learned the very hard way, believe me. Firegazer, this is just my own personal style i trade/invest so each to their own, but as you asked if I had invested HOME at 170 I would definitely get out now and move onto somewhere else or wait for better opportunities. If I get out at a loss and it turns I don't let that bother me because I had a plan and I stuck to it when it comes to the losses I am willing to cope with. GL to your holding here but I've made my views clear on HOME as asked. Its your money at the end of the day and its all imo anway.

I'm expecting an awful set of results. There is no quick fix for CC even with a new man in charge. Big successful turnarounds in companies are rare and I'm not expecting one here. I post more on iii the reasons why I think CC are a business in terminal decline, a product of a once successful family run business that have lifted their foot off the gas for some years now, not coping with increasing competition from better valued supermarkets, local retailers and better customized choices online. High rents, lower footfall in general in the whole retail sector and the stores and choice available are pretty woeful imo. Plus more and more people are just choosing the lazy option of saying a happy birthday on facebook/skype/email/text tetc. rather than the hassle of buying a card hitting CC's market share. Only way to make any money out of CC is to short it imo. I wouldn't buy this share if it went down to 1p.

Each to their own. If someone planned for and can tolerate a 40% loss then fair enough. Think that argument of 4% div back is a bit weak tbh. You are forgetting the obvious risk of the whole holding getting written down in value which defeats the whole dividend payment. Id rather get a guaranteed 1% than face a 40% loss that's for sure. Besides, I thought you said recently that you yourself wish you jumped ship when the directors sold up?

ACHL seems a decent buy imo but there are still some issues to be dealt with surrounding a majority shareholder with fraud allegations. Best to let that die over first before jumping in, but if the last RNS is correct it is an outstanding growth company. Only problem is, is that it could be too good to be true so best DYOR and have some healthy skepticism. CW looks really cheap but seems to be out of fashion with the market. WMH could also be a decent buy with some more legs in it yet and also Euro championship and Olympics coming up next year, but maybe wait for a dip in the general market to get it at a more decent level. BP & SBRY are also decent to add in any portfolio at these levels. And there's always gold of course. All imo and DYOR and there could always be another crash around the corner with high inflation (figures out tomo), low growth, Euro Crisis, possible slowdown in China & US etc. All being reported daily in the world media adding to the fear for investors. Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy as the old saying goes. Easier said than done of course, otherwise we all would have Warren Buffet style wealth. GL wobbly anyway, hope it turns for you at HOME. Believe me I've done the same thing before as well, hoping for a turn that will never come and only extending my losses thinking that I only lose when I press the sell button or that its "only a paper loss". Its very easy to only see the positives/upside when you sitting on a loss. This is a very good book if you have the time to read it: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Mind-Trader-Lessons-Trading-Strategy/dp/0273630067/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1318892124&sr=8-1 Definitely gets into the mindset of coping with your losses, having a plan, being decisive when things don't go to plan and sticking to it and what you can afford to lose in your initial investment. I highly recommend it. Richard Farleigh's book is also a good read (the Aussie who use to be on Dragon's Den).

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/oct/16/mothercare-ben-gordon-alan-parker-crisis?newsfeed=true

*2008 should have been 2009 the year of negative net income. Apologies.

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Financials?s=AMZN:NSQ http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=97664&p=irol-reportsannual Wobbly, not having a go or anything, but have a look. Also as a qualified Accountant (now retired) I think I would know the difference between the two. I examine any companies accounts in detail before I invest. Have a look at the net income of HOME and it has decreased year on year for the past 5 years (exception being 2008 where net income was actually negative). Also take a look at their Goodwill in their balance sheet which has stayed the exact same level the last 3 years. Always a warning sign in a company. Also it is very difficult to measure and in addition to the fact that it forms such a large part of the company's total equity. Take a look at HOME's ROE and ROA year on year, margins are wafer thin especially when overall turnover is not increasing. It would not take much for HOME to be pushed into negative net income again. Yes I recognize they do have cash reserves and I am certainly not saying they will go the way of HMV or anything like that. And I don't deny that people will shop at the stores, but make no mistake it is less and less with market share ever decreasing. I don't see where there growth is going to come from in the future and given the other macro factor pressuring the average customer. Anyway, each to their own and its your own money. All I'm saying is that imo this is definitely not a strong buy even at these levels. I think there is more downside to come and pain for anybody holding here. GL anyway wobbly in your holdings, hope it turns for you. Right I'm off to catch up on some wknd telly.

Mis-read my calendar, as far as I know yes it is Thursday the 27th October and website says so as well. Looked at calender and thought it was Thursday 13th October when i quickly glanced at it. Really Sorry about that.

Amazon keep losing money!?!? That is some statement!! Have you actually looked at their accounts??? There is a reason why HOME SP has plummeted over the past 5 years and AMZN soared in that time. AMZN are more convenient, better value & range, and now much more innovative with the Kindle and the new Kindle Fire (yes, they will lose money on these products, but its actually selling the books that they will make massive amounts of money on). The market is usually not wrong. There is a good reason why shares of AMZN have increased over 600% over 5 years whilst HOME has decreased nearly 50% over the same period. Think you are seeing only what you want to see here imo. First cut is the best cut I find when it comes to losses. Cut your losses quick as they say. I am not holding here, just making observations. Anybody can see it is struggling. You just have to ask yourself honestly, would you yourself shop in Argos now??? Fair enough if its a yes but If the answer is a no, then I seriously would re-consider your own holding here. I mean, it only makes sense.

Yeah I do regularly walk past at least two Black's in the middle of London and its just completely empty most of the time and the staff seem really uninterested, though they can hardly be blamed for that if hardly anyone is coming in. Now I dont want to be a total bear on this and welcome anyone with opposing views out there. The only thing that I can see to make the SP move north is a bid from Ashely, but again as I said earlier, why would he buy now when he has plenty of time to purchase at a much cheaper price as he had done with other businesses in the past.

Could be, certainly a significant uptrend in the past 30 days, but FTSE has also had a strong rally in the past 14 days as well. Anyway, I'm still on the strong sell side with regards to HOME and will wait till the RNS to change my stance. Will need a number of positive RNS and change of strategy to compete in the changing retail markets. Need to concentrate more on the online market as well imo and less reliance on the traditional brick s and mortars, and would agree that they could have reached a saturation point with wobbly. Competition online certainly cannot be ignored. Time will tell I guess. GLA

Doubt it myself for next week. If I bought in here I'd get out on any bounce if I can. I expect a big drop come the RNS, doubt you will ever see this hit 2quid again, unless there is big changes. I could be wrong of course and the results could be surprisingly good. Argos and Home retail definitely do not offer value for money for the average customer. Could go into more detail, but i post more on iii if you want to check my views on this. Anyway, STRONG SELL for me unless I see big changes from HOME.