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There is no business move or sense (nor ever has been) announcing you are 'unviable'.

It means Mooky is announcing its demise.

Its UK & US

Last time it was an enforced lockdown and supported by furlough.

This time its an internal business decision based on the business no longer being viable.

I highly doubt they will re-open. They have a covenant waiver to discuss long before that. Its highly unlikely those conversations will be supportive. Wouldnt make sense to if the business itself is no longer viable

I think we all know its most likely going to be carnage tomorrow. There is no bottom now really, so all bets are off.

The business is shutting down, they are ladened with debt. Its effectively a 'total closure' and Im not sure why banks and lenders would waive covenants on a shut business. I would seriously doubt it really.

You would have to be brave to stick in this now.

Mooky had banked on Bond and October run up was filled with promotions to gear up footfall.

In the face of the local lockdowns and fears of 2nd wave his October promo fest was unfeasible. Bond delay has just killed it all.

As I said yesterday mothballing is the only option to preserve possibility of a future for the business. In the interim it will mean job losses and a closure of cinemas.

People who want to watch a movie will continue to head the streaming route and it will now give PVOD a massive boost.

People wont want to wait for cinemas to open to watch a film. Entertainmemt cannot be shelved like a commodity.

I would doubt he knew before then as well.

Its a tough one fir him to swallow, a lot was riding on it. Just have to wait until Monday to see the knock on effect now

When Beta died VHS took off, same with HDDVD died bluray took off, same with blockbuster died andcstreaming took off etc etc

If you shut one consumption channel, people turn to the other. People wont wait to want to watch a movie.

Cinemas are a dead duck right now and for the forseeable future. Bond delay has put paid to any 2020 revival, end of

Its not about PVOD on a small screen. Streaming is massive already.

Its a habitual thing and people get used to it. The situation swings increasingly into PVODs hands the longer cinemas are out. People are not going to want to wait for the cinemas to see a film eventually.

Studios have little option but to park major releases.

In the meantime while there are lockdowns and people spend time indoors they all head to Netflix etc

Its given online streaming a massive boost which I think will be hard to come back from anyway. I suspect studios will also be eyeing up vertical integration should Cine and others fail. They will keep all options open

As for sitting at home and watching a film, there maybe no option but to now do that until next year.

You cannot discount PVOD, online streaming has become huge !!!

That marriage is going through a separation at the moment though.....

Make no bones about it this could cause a real paradigm shift in this sector if it continues until the end of the year which is likely now.

There are a number of scenarios and outcomes but they are all fraught with issues.

If cineworld was to fail, the studios may consider vertical integration. While cineworlds finances are precarious at best, lenders may also be reluctant to admit the loss and sink it. Sometimes seeing it out can become a likely path to recover your monies somehow in the hope the business begins to function and generate income once again.

Its unrealistic to think 2021 will spring into life where 2019 left off. Thats highly unlikely to happen really.

PVOD does take time to take off but once it does it mighty hard to stop it. Right now its been given a bit of a leg up with whats going on

There is no escaping the fact that cinema is dead on its feet right now. The concept of cinema still remains but its who will make it through to the other side.

Cineworld is not entirely in control of the debt monkey on its back

Thing is the plan to re-open on the back of Tenet and the eat out scheme was actually a good idea. Also the £4 ticket and free nacho/popcorn promos were good thinking.

Cine's finances are precarious but these were good steps to get going and breathe life back into cinema.

However pulling major releases, the 2nd wave, the possibility of a Biden win and the Brexit talks are now massive factors hampering the outlook.

All of these massively effect sentiment and hospitality and entertainment is all about public sentiment. Its totally reliant on that feel good factor and wanting to go out.

The concept of cinema remains a good one but the fear is Cineworld may not make it into next year in good shape if at all. Its marooned on the rocks

Agree, the real question is if Cine can survive mothballing until next year.

There's no point now keeping cinemas open as its all unnecessary cost. I think the plan was to open up and try encourage people back with £4 tickets and free popcorn but it seems futile now after the Bond pull.

The other problem is after a year peoples viewing habits change. Theres no way of telling people will actually come out week after week to watch successive films next year.

I dont think people will suddenly flood out in the same numbers after what this virus has done. Most probably a very cautious and slow return

I think most people could see that delay coming.

There is no way studios will risk blockbuster income by screening major releases right now. There simply won't be the footfall out there.

Cineworld is likely to be both shaken and stirred by this. Its inevitable.

I think they are trying desperately to increase footfall and encourage people to go to the cinema.

The problem is the Govt restrictions are increasingly going the other way !!

They are now offering free popcorn and nachos to Unlimited card holders during October as well.

They are trying very hard to get footfall going in October !!!

Cineworld have launched a £4 ticket promo for October.

Presumably its to try help drive footfall and get people coming out to the cinema.

There is no surprise that interested parties have baulked at the ESS £500m valuation and poured cold water all over it. That was obvious and have been saying that for a month.....

TPG dropped out 1st round, no surprise there. The parties remaining will most likely have tabled hard ball 'take it or leave it' offers.

As for valuation even £300-400m would be considered toppy in the current times. Capita would be doing exceptionally well given its market cap if they manage to get offers and interest in that ball park.

The problem is even if 'say' they get £400m..... the ESS sale wouldnt serve the purpose it has been put up for sale for?

They dont get the cash they actually needed and they also dispose of a profit making division?

It kind of harks back to the points passingthru and trytobuylow have been making all last month !!!

Schroders upp'd their stake to 10% last week and you've now seen a notification clarifying voting rights.........

@johnnycoder

ESS is one of the more profitable divisions within Capita. Its also the division they are selling off right now, so not sure how this new contract awarded to ESS benefits Capita longer term if at all.......