Member Info for Bertles

It looks to have had a good lift today.

If they are as busy as people say this could he a good recovery play. Im a bit nervous at these prices though because any news of a 2nd wave will probably hit pubs really hard ! Its tempting but loaded with risk !!!!!

@Owls

I got last years H1 results from this page

https://www.capita.com/news/capita-plc-half-year-results-2019

Ive just read it again and cant make sense of thevtransformation comments. In Aug last year the statement was the transformation was into the 2nd year and going great. Very positive.

By March 6mths later they announced it was not going so great and far more complicated !!!

Any idea why the sudden change and what has happened in those 6mths? Its really confusing to tie up the comments to what has actually happened in the company !!

If your in at 1.01 average then you probably held on for too long. Not worth selling up now. May as well just hang on.

Yeah they defo need to downsize but get rid of the chaff. Keep the good ones.

I cant see how those 10,000 jobs can come back now. It doesnt make financial sense to bring them back !!!

Lets hope they report results tomorrow !

Sorry to hear of your predicament, thats a huge loss to bear and you are right to hang on at this stage. Hopefully you didnt have too much tied in but its astonishing how much this company has dropped off.

Ive read a few articles that feel its too large and needs to downsize. My gut feel from that is theres a £2-2.5bn size company at the core of it all and the rest of it is chaff making it unmanageable.

The full year £60m loss last year was after exceptionals which wont hit again this year.

At 2019 H1 they had made £126m profit. I think they need to be at the £150-200m this 2020 H1. Ideally at £250m because they should really be making some HUGE savings in costs this H1 !!!

Dave, I don't disagree with what you say. All of that was in play last year as well ? My numbers are based off last year.

For me H1 £1.7Bn turnover and anything between £150-200m to indicate the company is in some sort of shape. £250m is where it needs to be though.

Breakeven would be catastrophic results. There are huge and easy savings to be had for this company this year. If they dont make savings this year then fundamentally something is going wrong internally.

Also this is paper profit. The second focus is on cash and if they have enough liquid capital in play to be able to service debt.

If the numbers are crap then this is headed into the 20s. I dont understand why they havent announced the results yet. H1 shoukdnt be too bad and you would think they wouldnt hang about getting some good news out !

Dave I skimmed the reports, I dont think it matters at the macro level.

I cant see why they should be below £1.7Bn revenue. Profit I think they should actually really be coming in at around £250m.

During lockdown, travel, staff, expenses, office costs etc would be next to nothing. You would hope they have made savings to flow through to profit.

If they come in nearer to £100m profit then it means they cant control costs and manage projects properly !!!!

Done somemore fag pack calculations

Lasy year H1 was £1.85Bn and £126m profit.

This year they have said turnover is 10% down so overall it should come in at around £1.66Bn. Covid is 5% of that but they have also saved a shed load of staff costs from the furlough scheme.

That means profit should be £120m

On top of that, they should have made heaps of other savings like redundancies, contractors, travel etc Last year they also had exceptionals hit them so they wont affect them this year.

I reckon H1 2020 they need to come in with £1.7Bn turnover and at least £150-200m profit

Also their announcments dont make sense or back up the published results.

Its almost like the management of the company is speaking another language to the results ! Its all very odd !!!

Dave_1 @ I understand that process but I imagine the margins on Govt contracts to be thin. If capita cant control costs well then profit is going to come under pressure every year.

I'm thinking its that coupled with cashflow thats part of the problem here.

It doesnt help they are not announcing half year results on time. That is plain weird. I am thinking talk of revovery maybe premature until people can find out what is actually going on inside this company.

If they take those 10,000 furloughed staff back, I have reservations they have the cashflow to sustain them. A lot of large organisations are shedding a tin of staff, HSBC, IAG etc etc. I think Capita may now need to do the same.

Do they make money on govt contracts or is it all just work in hand?

No results, no detail, the share price keeps slipping. Its very difficult to understand this company and where it stands. Is this actually a revovery stock or just a stricken company !

Still no results !!! Are they actually going to publish anything this time round ?

Any news today ? Whats happened about the announcement !!!

Any news today ? Whats happened about the announcement !!!

Do you think now pubs have re-opened this will be a recovery stock? Are pubs now over the worst of it?

It feels a bit pricey but will it get much worse you think?

It seems to slide away everyday since. All the factors have been out in the open for ages.

It keeps sliding which is making me think maybe not everything or all the bad news is out yet.

Lets see what happens tomorrow but its all too fishy !!!

Basically the share price has been factored already. You cannot apply the same factors twice!!

Hopefully interims results will be out tomorrow? Someone here said they would come out today? No idea why Sunday?

In the meantime I cant work out if 34p is cheap or too expensive !!!

Dave_1 you are right. Only that they have said they are only 5% down not 10%.

Basically, covid isnt really directly affecting capita! They are not in those industries that have been hit badly. In fact with furlough and new govt contracts they should be performing ok if not better.

I think they badly need cash. ESS is up for sale and they got a big salary bill coming back this month.

Otherwise, their announcements dont stack up with the numbers !!!

Dave_1, I'm just doing some basic fag pack calculations to try understand why this share is going backwards. Two weeks ago it was classed as recovery but its just gone backwards since !

Outsourcing hasnt been hit by Covid like other industries. Capita said revenue was only 5% down and they have been awarded a lot of contracts in this time. It doesnt make sense why the share would continue to slide !

5% of 3BN t/o is approx £150m down but they futloughed 10,000 staff so have saved approx £120m in costs. The net effect profit of Covid is basically negligible on Capita.

This share should just be holding in and around its collapsed point right now. Its dropped 30% in 2 weeks? Its not in line with the macro situation.

Even at 34p it might fall to into the 20s this week. In 30s sounds cgeap until you realise you can lose another 10-20% if it continues its drop into 20s. This company shouldnt even be this low anyway. There is something defo fishy. Why are Capita not publishing interim results ?Something doesnt sound right !!!!

Following its main collapse, it shoudn't drift too much. Revovery stock should just hold +/-5% ?

Its down 30% in a couple of weeks from a low base anyway !!!!

I think to see out this year they need to sell ESS to get £500m cash + another £120m to pay returning staff. Quick calculation thats approx £700m in the next 6mths and thats if they can sell ESS! And they get rid of 10,000+ staff asap

For sure there is something weird going on in this company. It sounds like they are hiding some major news. Its not looking a traditional revovery stock at this moment.

But all those staff savings would have already factored in earlier trading announcements surely?

10,000 additional salaries is going to stress cashflow big time. Are all those staff actually going to increase revenue and profits as well ? The company has been doing better without them !!

Some thing is not quite right. This share should at least be holding steady. It keeps drifting down !!!