Member Info for Berrin

In accordance with the Brandolini law, I don’t have the slightest intention to reply.

10% x 5 years = 100% ?? That’s good enough. Closed.

Excellent post, AML_007 Paul.

10% x 5 years = double ? That's very impressive, funboy ! As usual.

Oops another FALSE information & assumptions by that maggot.

What an impressive record he's got in there, feels like 100%.

"Gross debt is now £1.5bn" is another FALSE information if not lie, adding to his 'record'.

Hope the idiot filtered me as I won't reply, anyway.

Impressive, AML_007 . Off the top of my head I would add to the list the Q2/2024 results that were going to be the WORST EVER in history. He's been misleading, lying, give false information, for his purpose - whatever that is. The fella reminds me of a pickpocket and I doubt he'd hesitate with a 90 year old granny's wallet. If he could not hide in internet anonymity, in earlier times he'd probably be helped with a few strokes of the cane not to talk the practice of cutting fingers.

Outstanding, AML_007 . Add to that your Brandolini's law - perfect !

False alarm again by cry-wolf-man (does he lie on daily basis now?): "... they are in more debt now than they ever were."

Gross debt/net debt was much higher in 2022 by about 400-450m compared to Q4/2004. There is no doubt the refinancing will cost a significant amount i.e. a three-digit million amount in my opinion and for good reasons, but definitely not as much as 400-450m for refinancing $1.365b . No way.

Why do people lie?

https://www.paulekman.com/blog/why-do-people-lie-motives/

The clown is back and crying wolf again. If you ask him on pistonheads to name his dealer or share some photos about the software issues, what you may get back is the same what we are used to from the cry-wolf-man ... nothing.

No Africa, no wolves, it’s a royal coastal town too small to mention.

Jon39 "any comparison of aml with ferrari [in term of business] is for dreamers". Again, this is all too simple a logic it's not and never going to work for the reason it didn't work the 110 years before. I don't buy this in perpetuum.

John39 "Ebitda it is nonsense". This is very blunt, not to say ignorant. It is there. It is fact. It is commonly reported. Hence it's a matter to understand what it is and then you can use it or not and I do use it where it makes sense. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/ev-ebitda/#:~:text=EV%2FEBITDA%20is%20a%20ratio,relative%20value%20of%20different%20businesses.

What you're implicitly saying is Geely should divest their 16% stake immediately because it's been a poor business decision on the ground that AML will never be profitable and Mr Stroll is unlikely to hand over to them if this is what they wanted. Oh my, did Geely use Ebitda….? :>)

Jon39 "You also need to be clear about the current debt refinancing. No extra money was raised for continuing commercial activities, so if the negative cash flow does continue, further fund raising ... will be needed." It's no doubt too premature to say this unless you know and understand all the details of the refinancing, already. If you expect further fund raising will be needed, I'd love to see your quarterly revenue and cash flow projection vis a vis AML's guidance and where/when you think it will be needed if you could.

I won't get back in the short term though... on holiday starting 5am tomorrow morning... ;>)

Jon39, Generally, in absolute terms the current market cap of just £1.38b is low. Ferrari's got a market cap of EUR 70b and even Lamborghini is (potentially) worth ten times more than AML, currently. In relative terms, AML is a low 7.65 EV/Ebitda (expect to decrease further) and also a low 1.43 price-to-book ratio. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-07/lamborghini-worked-on-ipo-pitch-well-before-volkswagen-ceo-asked

The starting point from here is attractive with an all-around refreshed product line-up. "... do you expect the number of new AM buyers will increase, or decrease?" I do expect it will increase, yes. The pool of HNWI is ever growing. The price increase for the DB12 over DB11 is around £20-25k and that's not too excessive, given the massive upgrade.

Some side points to watch: They might want to upscale/upgrade their distribution in China and explore SKD production with Geely/Lotus in Wuhan for PHEV, if not for the EVs, later. Keep in watch (no source for that). Then, Lagonda is dead. Can you license the brand to Lucid and potentially develop a car for them on contract, same powertrain anyway? Remotely, but watch. Prepare St. Athan for contract manufacturing - Lotus, Lucid, Maybach or potentially sell it altogether? Watch.

Sure, the alliances are crucial. If Geely want a (much) higher share, then find ways to do it one way or the other and Mr Stroll bows out, slowly... If Geely want more, perhaps MB will follow.

AML say "FCF is expected to materially improve in 2024 compared with the prior year, achieving our targeted inflection point for positive FCF generation in H2’24, primarily driven by the timing of wholesale volumes." So, coming back to your key point yes, cash flow this year is clearly negative, debt eats cash, but debt is shrinking in relative terms if you can grow the business, profitably and that's the challenge.

Correct, psycho. Did you also mention my post on March 5th “I reduced my holding yesterday and bought back lower.” But that’s none of your business, anyway. You don’t deserve any attention. Closed!

Jon39, History is very important and to learn from it. Yet, I'd be more interested here in critical, contrarian views with concrete substance instead of the all too simple logic it's not going to work now because it didn't the 110 years before.

There are many wolves in Africa, that's why... But you are right Astonbroomes, on the use of rhetoric. I'll stop the wolf thing now unless there is false alarm or information, again. I'm sure critical, contrarian views are always welcome here.

Let him cry wolf in Africa.

He’s got better chances, there.

Noah: “First, I was wrong.” Well you can’t be right every time.

You wouldn’t see such a statement from the cry-wolf-man when he’s working for a syndicate. His colleagues not to mention bosses will laugh at him so he’ll not stop with false information.

TheAnswerIsNo, then let me add to it: It's been another false alarm by cry-wolf-man

In terms of "write properly", you may refer to your own messages. Closed !

AML_007, thanks for the clarification - it's been another false alarm.

Don't know about that 638, but to me the cry-wolf-man is lying. If now he says you can work it out (calculate) when they will need a cash raise and it would be within four months, why did he earlier cry wolf and said there were rumours? If you ask him for a substantiated cash flow forecast, you know what comes back.... nothing!

You better read again and don't cite me incorrectly, I said "Any cash raise should it come or not is INCREASINGLY priced in." and this will most certainly apply when the shareprice is falling. You don't qualify for a cultured exchange of information, ideas and opinions.

Actually, I'm quite sure there are cases where you cried wolf before or posted wrong information, so even when you are right next time, you lost it, cry-wolf-man. You are uncultivated, so I won't entertain you. Closed.