Member Info for bendipa1

'Stockopedia has just upgraded this'.

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That's a worry, as so many of their recommendations end up going south. Same for IC.

Alessandro - I bought HFG for the 1st time today mainly for yield. As long as that div holds I'm happy, though not looking for any increase over the next year or so. I don't think they are in major trouble yet although I'm aware they are beset with a few serious headaches presently, which I hope they will resolve.

Current dividend likely to be sustained. A 10% drop in eps would be easily covered, and net gearing (16% June 2025) is relatively low compared to many companies with massive borrowings, making losses, and who still continue to pay unaffordable divs.

Flippin' heck!. I think those shorters must be running for cover. I can't see that much to cheer about in the qtr 3 results, with net debt sharply up and the business pretty flat overall, although parcels and Love2Shop did well. Perhaps it's partly relief that things weren't as bad as expected, but wasn't expecting a severe business downturn myself. The CEO was a bit gushing about how great the results were, but at least the market's happy so not complaining.

Sp remained weak during the first couple of weeks in the new year but strengthened last week. So I rechon the market ignored Barclays downgrade in the end. But until the court judgement is out of the way (why is it taking so long - months so far to reach a decision) it's anybody's guess where this is going.

Its an AIM stock, so with few exceptions there's hardly likely to be big volumes in this with normal trading. However the sp has more or less been in free-fall for 21 months, so I'd expect something of a bounce sooner or later. It certainly looks cheap on most metrics., bur most AIM stocks have been hammered since Covid.

Athough FNX has fared better than most others which have fallen 80%+, I'm still expecting AIM stocks to continue out of favour generally..

Every update sounds great - the paid for Equity Development posts

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ED posts are usually a complete waste of time. As for the updates sounding great it's just gas-lighting. The results over the last 5 years speak for themselves. EBITDA has fallen from 12.4p (2020) to 0.7p (2024). EPS has collapsed from 11.7p to -0.6p for same period, and they finally scrapped the div this year, with net debt at £70.3m last Sept and the CEO finally resigning last month. He should have departed at least 3 years ago.

STRIX are going nowhere while debt remains at this level.

Apart from last year, this has always been a shorter's favourite. At the start of this year shorters held 3% of the shares which was a higher level than it is now. It caused the sp to fall to 676, but it rose again to over 900p, so they don't always get it right. The outcome of the court case was still an unknown factor earlier this year while the sp was considerably higher than it is now. Meanwhile debt is coming down.

The CEO did not buy 'a few' shares. He bought 25000, and that's a fairly significant amount. So unless he's a complete idiot and has little idea what's happening in the company I wouldn't worry too much. Although I would like to see the div reduced by 20%. It's too high at the moment.

Even if the fine is £150 million it is still about half the market cap. That could bring the shares down to £2

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In which case, why would the CEO recently have spent £134,500 for 25000 shares on Nov 21st if what you suggest is true?

Most people carry debit or credit cards, hence term cashless society. It's only less well-off pensioners and unemployed who still tend to pay by cash, neither of whom will be ordering pizzas as they are an expensive and unhealthy meal to say the least. I can afford pizzas, but would never order from these places on principle.

I''m with you Ghengis on this. As I said before this is a high yield trap. ie the sp falls to lower levels each year at the expense of any advantage of that yield. I've seen this fall all the way back from the 40s pre Covid. And the only reason it probably got to that level was IC's frequent plugging of Duke. We haven't had a capital raise so far this year, so expect one next year and thus even more dilution.

'Unfortunately Rishi Sunak also turned out to be anti UK citizens allowing Labour to get in on a protest vote.'

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Aw please! It was the voters who decided on this government, not Sunak. No-one helds gun to their heads and forced them to vote Labour.

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".it's going to be a very painful difficult 4 years for everyone in the UK apart from; left wing scroungers, the WOKE brigade...."

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Really? So who are these 'left wing scroungers' and members of the WOKE brigade, who are apparently financially immune, according to you from ever-rising costs of day-to-day living that are hitting the vast majority of us? Do tell.

The prices being charged at outlets like Papa John and Domino are insane. A pizza is basically dough with a very thin spread of topping like cheese, tomato sauce etc. They must be making at least 300-400% mark-ups, maybe more. I could pop along to Lidl or Aldi and buy similar quality for a fraction of the price charged by these franchises. I love pizza and would happily eat it any time, but would never pay these fancy prices for it.

Tambo:- At interims, net gearing increased from 65.6% to 84.2% . That's heavy debt by any standards, and of course finance charges increased from £9.3m to £10.5m. They paid £19.1m in divs, but if you haven't got the FCF to finance that...well it just adds to the already high debt pile, doesn't it? 'Adjusted' OP is down 18.7%., but O.CF is 5% higher at £69.3m, which is interesting, the only good metric. 'Adjusted' EPS is down by 26.5% (continuing EPS is down by much higher %).

Looking longer term at FY results, over past 4 years (y/e 2021-24), revenue has increased from £950.5m to £1100.7m. But EPS has declined from 27.2p to 25.5p. So increase in turnover not feeding through to bottom line. At the moment it's a company running to stand still or running the wrong way against an escalator. No doubt their debt burden plays a significant part in that.

They've had 2 profit warnings this year, the latest one still showing no sign of improvement., with 19% decline in 1st half operating profit. That's why it's currently trading near its low.

https://tinyurl.com/ekkk7nkz

With UK unemployment still on an uptrend, not a share to be holding right now, although things are improving in US. Could well cut the final div as FY PBT is expected to crash (£25m). It's baffling how STEM is doing far worse than it did during Covid years.

Grateful I sold back in May, after the 1st warning. The sp didn't react too much to it at the time, and I was really surprised it didn't take a big tumble then. But on 2nd thoughts decided not to risk it.

Treatt is on my watchlist again, but not sure if something has gone fundamentally wrong at the company, or it's just a cyclical thing. But the loss of a CEO and CFO 18 months on certainly hinted at trouble brewing The sp as halved since CEO Reeves resigned. And the refusal of the new CEO to take up shares is another strong hint to me that there's more bad news to come. I'm not in a rush to get on board again.

It's been reported recently that Lord Lee. a strong advocate of SUPR has sold his entire holding. This was allegedly revealed in his latest podcast. I have no idea whether this is true, as I'm not privy to the podcast. But another person who supposedly heard the same podcast disputed that. Since so many people tell lies on the internet, who knows what Lee's position is. But if it is true, it would certainly explain the recent weakness as PI parrots panic out.

'And let's be honest, think how happier we would all be with less population. But we keep being told immigration is great.'

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I'm afraid Starmer will do little or nothing to deter immigration, legal or illegal. All you will hear is 'smash the gangs' and similar hollow utterances.

Did you know that in 2023-24 it cost the UK a whopping £5.38bn to house asylum seekers, and that annual figure has probably increased significantly since. It's unsustainable, and Starmer knows it, but hasn't the balls to deal with it. And that's on top of a massive rise in welfare benefits, especially with PIP, which has increased annually from £15bn - 2022 to £21.6bn - 2024.

https://news.sky.com/story/home-office-spent-record-5-38bn-on-asylum-over-past-year-13262335

https://www.independent.co.uk/politics/benefits-pip-welfare-numbers-reeves-spring-statement-b2781198.html

Yes, SUPR really cruising along now and is my biggest holding and bought only for income. I wasn't expecting it to reach this level quite so soon and was planning to ditch at 85p which I took a 2 year view on.. But I'll hold for now. Next target, 95p hopefully, which should happen if we get another interest rate cut this year.