George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Ok Baserite . I don't aim to convince you , just putting the other side of the argument. Im just not COPL Delusional.
It never ceases to amaze me that someone posts a concern and they have an agenda. someone posts a positive and they are a hero. To some. But there you go?
I have said on a number of occasions I do not even begin to imagine my posts will alter the COPL or any other SP. They are just part of the overall dialogue. If you want to keep on trashing my views , that's fine. Shows you don't have any substance just wishful thinking.
Not to dissapoint anyone:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-08/nigeria-s-tough-decision-former-dictator-or-alleged-kleptocrat
+++Nigeria’s Brutal Decision: Former Dictator or Alleged Kleptocrat
Voters need to choose between a pair of uninspiring presidential candidates, neither offering a fix for its struggling economy.+++
It does seem very successively to bad - slightly negative news , but I suggest that’s the market at the mo . Very jittery .
Some nice consistent rising revenue figures will push the sp back I believe . I can’t honestly see anything bad about this operation
It’s amazing how fast these well organised companies can set up replacement warehouses tho and be back in full action. Yes it’s a bad hit but Act of God rather than poor management . I’m still confident in the company at have topped up at the dropped price .
Dunc . Suggest you take the time to read the BP article . I can find many others . Shell for example .BIG players . Huge players . The point being that the underlying value of the asset at present is unproven it is conjecture . BP paid $1Bn for a licence , did all the seismic and drilled and found nothing economically viable. Sold off the licence for a fraction of that . Hubris is not necessarily a good thing . So what’s the underlying value of that asset , ? 1Bn - nope . So all these calculations that are being bandied about are rubbish until that drill breaks ground and they see what comes up . It’s an educated guess , but not certain, not guaranteed . Anyone else who states look what Essar paid for the licence - they made good decisions and their parent co didn’t they. If you dunc go out and buy a pile of crap for 1Bn and then have it analysed for 50k and pay your team 400k a month for 5 years it’s still a pile of crap . Bad analogy . I dont beleive OPL 226 is a pile of crap , I believe it has significant unproven potential .
Re 20 mill Shorecan money . Why is it people think Kola is a fairy godmother , why would he be paying all that - he wouldn’t . . I wouldn’t - if copl can pay their share great - if not that’s there problem , they default an I get it all.
Also find it continuously hilarious how positive spin is regarded as good and the other side of the argument is trashed . Each spin rinse dump and repeat harms far more people than looking at the True picture and what risks are present . I am suggesting caution . And that’s my perogative. And yes sometimes Im absent from the board posts , but I always reading it .
As I have stated before but you just cannot accept it ... Or don’t want to accept reality, or it doesn’t fit your own Agenda . If the Ministerial approval is given then this is a totally different scenario . A very optimistic one . I know you can’t cope with looking back at the stream of missed Targets and broken promises given by COPL but that’s your choice . “Future Good Past Bad” And as for hidden agendas my agenda is very clear and open . Make sure both sides of the argument are heard . Here it seems I’m cast as the villain - I can live with that. Reality sucks eh Dunc. And as I’ve said before if it hits .15p after the March , Yes IMO March placing ( look at the last Prospectus More money need April or before) I may buy more as a purely speculative gamble , but at the mo I’m underwater on COPl I readily admit partly for believing some of the spin bollocks on here early last year. Not my usual style but My fault I know. ‘Im not the only one . . You carry on with your spin posts matey . I enjoy them and those of your groupies , and I will carry on with mine as and when work time and the inclination takes me.
Track record is one of the most important indicators of potential future success
If you want I can pick out COPL bullet points from the last 3 years reports and target dates when events will happen .
But how about this if you get a moment , have a quick glance at the annual reports from 2007 starting with Velo and up to COPLs last one and see exactly how much shareholder value COPL has created in 11 years . Apart from 2008 when they sold a subsidiary and awarded nearly the whole of the amount gained back in management stock options . Nice one .
>>>>>
Fast forward to 2014 when BP successfully conducted 3D seismic testing of its lease area about 330 kilometers southeast of Halifax in order to “assist in locating potential hydrocarbon resources.” (Yellow area on map)
Drilling exploratory test wells was the next order of business (yes, drilling is part of the seismic exploration process).
These exploratory wells are targeted where the oil company believes to be, based on seismic testing, the most likely places where oil and gas will be found.
So, the news that came out several weeks ago is extremely telling:
“BP plc BP is downsizing oil and gas exploration plans off Nova Scotia as it intends to return 50% of the area included in the license….In November 2018, BP’s partner in the Scotian Basin exploration drilling project, Hess Corporation HES, announced that its first well did not encounter commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. BP’s plan to downsize operations in Nova Scotia basin came just over a year after Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS.A stated to shut the second of two exploration wells due to unavailability of any commercial hydrocarbons.”
What do we make of the failure of BP and Royal Dutch Shell to find “commercial quantities” of oil and gas after drilling in locations that seismic testing said were the best chances of success?
One or both of these conclusions must be reached.
The estimates of how much oil and gas to be found were way wrong.
Seismic testing is not very accurate.
Solgas had the original licence
• Historically, only 5 wells have been drilled on OPL 226 by previous operators including: Noa-1 drilled by Solgas in 2001 that is an oil and gas discovery; Oyoma-1 (1972) – 27 m net oil and gas pay; Dubagbene-1 (1972) – 8 m net oil pay; Nduri-1 (1973) – 9 m net gas pay; HJ South-1 (1973) – 8.5 m net gas pay.
And yes The mcap is the markets valuation of a company . Including positive and negative sentiment .
Risk V reward including sentiment from private and institutional investors . As I said previously , good signed NNPC approvals will change that if and when they arrive . Common sense Dunc- if investors believed this was a “Slam Dunc” killer stock then the share price would be far greater and reflect COPLs spin view.
I still haven’t seen Ministerial Approval for the change of ownership of Essar by the way , or did I miss that ?
An Appraisal Well is a vertical or deviated well that is drilled so as to understand the economic potential or not of a hydrocarbon reservoir
$50 million project financing and offtake deal from The Mauritius Commercial Bank Limited (MCB) and Trafigura PTE Limited, for the development of Oil Prospecting License (OPL) 226 in the Niger Delta region.
The company (COPL) added that, “Drawing on the Facility is contingent on among other things: ******An additional $20 million to $33 million of funding from ShoreCan***; $100 million funding from an offshore oil services group to deliver the project; a minimum of 6,000 barrels per day production rate averaged over 20 days; and the execution of a formal definitive binding agreement between the parties.” That 20 mill does not come under the FSP
2019 Outlook:
· Project financing for ShoreCan due to be completed by the end of Q2 . How much is going to be required of COPL to fund Shorecan ?
Reuter’s 2007
Nigerian oil regulator sacked amid licence probe
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission last month launched a probe into the award of Oil Prospecting Licence (OPL) 291 to Starcrest Nigeria Energy Ltd after it emerged that the unknown company had been given the licence outside the normal auction process without any official announcement.Starcrest had bid for and won rights to another licence, OPL 226, at the auction in a consortium with Taiwanese state oil company CPC. But CPC later withdrew from the partnership.
And Finally:
Oil companies curtail offshore exploration where natural gas and oil was to be plentiful
SCSBCC Interns January 31, 2019
In 2012 BP bid $1 billion for the oil exploration rights off Canada’s Nova Scotia. It was estimated that the Nova Scotia basin held up to 121 trillion cubic feet of gas and 8 billion barrels of oil.
On its website, BP brags about its oil development expertise. “Exploring offshore Nova Scotia aligns with BP’s significant experience in the exploration and production of oil and gas offshore.”
Fast forward to 2014 when BP successfully conducted 3D seism
I take your point. Encountered Hydrocarbons doesn’t mean a constant gusher tho does it . I can think of a couple of instances ( other companies ) with great seismic reports and hydrocarbon evidence that weren’t commmercially viable when the well was sunk proper. I spent half an hour this afternoon looking back over media relating to COPL again for the last 4 years and OPL226 as well . OPL 226 has been handed around like a hot potato and wasnt it initially at the centre of curruption allegations against an ex NNPC senior official.
First Arthur has repeatedly made promises and failed to deliver . It’s quite a record of non delivery . Second if there was any appreciable Net present Value in COPL it would have been snapped up by someone . £5 mill and it’s yours .
That’s why it’s where it is at present and the share price reflects doubts, sentiment, past sizeable losses in shareholder value, failed promises, placings , Agamore dispute, Essar dispute, lack of Ministerial approvals, FDC official approvals lack of and no desire to reign in costs by ART and finally an unproven resource. IMO finger in the air I stand by placing March with a stock price 0.21 and placing at 0.15 . Unless the rampers have another concerted effort . At 0.15p I’d buy more but not willing to commit any more for the moment with lack of Signed Documented Approvals in an RNS stating all barriers are removed . In which case yes I would be paying more but the risk would be mitigated somewhat.
And don’t get me onto was it £20 mill that needs to be found for the rig
Apart from someone else / institution owning a majority position or significant % then Arthur’s going nowhere . I can’t be arsed to do the calculation but maybe someone already knows - how much has been spent by COPL getting to this position . I believe Kola is very shrewd and that’s what gives me hope .
Art doesn’t impress me at all , but I am sure that doesn’t cause him any sleepless nights.
can anyone point me to the NNPC official approval/confirmation of the shoreline / Essar deal for OPL . Because I haven’t seen it and without that we own 40% of nothing except the cash in the bank .
A real NNPC release about OPL and Essar/Shoreline deal would change my mind dramatically.
Rdunc- the price is what the markets willing to pay based upon many factors . At this moment it’s .23 . Circa 4mill
If it was worth what Essar paid 37Mill then I suggest the price would not be that low . Shoreline would have bought all the copl shares as would have many entrepreneurs . It’s still a huge gamble and I’m ok with that . I look at the good and the bad Information . At the moment we are lacking in any FIRM data . So yes I could bung 10k in and get a good deal or it could go to crap and end up worthless . The same spin is being given now as when the price was 1p, 3p, 5p
It’s not a huge dis-service at all . Until the first well is sunk and they see what it produces it’s speculative .
Yes the data does suggest that there oil there , but anybody who invests in any sort of oil exploration knows that’s not a 100% certainty .
Hence why I question the logic in moving from one to four wells right off the bat when copl could have funded one on its own .
I’m not saying you are wrong , just that their are other opinions.
I also strongly question the “ oh we have approvals but have been asked to be quiet” approach to leaking positive spins which is what they are.
Any company who resorts to handling their investors sentiment in this way isnot professional in my view but is getting some dpi. Out there without the controls of RNS .
Track record says a lot .
When NNPC make a release I will believe it . I don’t subscribe to he says she says and we have been asked to keep quiet but it’s ok to post it online .
I’m not sure I agree with Arts Positive Podcast . It’s a rehash with a none to convincing Arthur. What I do t understand is why they didn’t pursue 1 well strategy at a lower cost to prove the project and then add in more wells . Unless there is doubt on hitting oil with one well and they are using Closest technology .
Re placing speculation . It doesn’t make sense to place at this value Correct . If he has a positive RNS then it will help the price .
You don’t however wait until you can’t pay the bills until you raise . What’s the raise cycle 4 weeks est. so Speculatively that’s beg March latest for announcement. I’m not sure Copl will have any positive news by then .
Unfortunately also some posters use this forum to spout their outright optimism in the face of a tragic history of failure to hit targets .
In reality Arts letters on intent etc etc etc mean diddlysquat until approval given for the Essar Deal which it hasn’t been yet . Or have I missed an NNPC announcement . Nope . The price is right for the risk and actual assets
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/01/13/loyal-to-the-bone-why-kola-karim-is-supporting-atiku-abubakar
Kola feels beholden to PDP under which he made a killing
Courtesy of his relationship with former oil minister of Petroleum .
It’s alleged he donated to both candidates , but I’ve not seen evidence of that.
Suggest Kolas bigger objective is to get a slice of the NNPC if his candidate wins and it is privatised .
How that affects COPL if Kolas candidate doesn’t win ?
Atiku, who says NNPC should not be run by the government, said the organisation has become a “mafia organisation”, that’s why it must be privatized to ensure proper running.
The former vice president said this, while speaking in Lagos during an interactive session with the business community on Wednesday, January 24.
News does drive it significantly and also sentiment . Shells up today and so are a lot of oil stocks , may have made the Rope so hit less extreme.
All stocks there’s also a ton of nods and winks among those in the know which can dramatically change the sp . Amazes me when results come out from a company , they beat targets , fundamentals unchanged and then the sp dumps £&@£&. Many many things we will never get to hear of . I believe we only see/hear the tip of the iceberg and then only when it’s about to hit the ship . Metaphorically speaking of course.
I beleive good long term fundamentals . But sometimes that doesn’t help either . It’s a matter of if you are pressured to sell at any given time . My portfolios down a fair bit over the last 6 months but if I convert to cash then will never get it back . No risk no gain .
top up from me this morning to average down a little . Can’t say I’m worried about a rope breaking . Just glad no injuries .
Don’t know what the weather was like during the operation but I wouldn’t be first in line to do that job . IMHO
Minor hiccup. Rarely does anything in oil and exploration go 100% to plan . Fundamentals are all still there and Bluewater take the hit .
And that comment is delusional . Panic sell , yup they are obviously without any knowledge of stock markets at all !!!!. Probably inside knowledge that the disputes have just shafted the company . Or it’s someone who had the 0.1p options dumping them as this stocks going nowhere fast and better to make .15p profit than nothing at all .
Am I the only one who is a tad concerned about these email responses Arthur doles out , which may or may not be released to the wider public depending on how he feels. A professional company would send out a press release , not may I add an RNS but Press release and update the world. Instead Arthur feeds our vague scraps on which he has no checks or balances as they are distributed via third parties . As far as Arthur’s not in the driving seat then WTF is he doing , is he basically sitting on his backside and letting Kola run the show . If that’s the case , excellent job , wish I could find one like that . No tangible progress in 12 months . No sign off NNPC , no renewal of licence OPL226 , dispute with Essar , dispute with Agamore. Plus If this isn’t resolved before Dec 31st $2Mill due to NNPC for licence renewal as if 1st Jan 2019- Another placing Id guess. Finally on my rant there’s a difference between shit and shinola . The delist - Move on the Canadian stock market is to where the Mickey Mouse companies go because they have Biilions of shares and they are basically worthless. Sub Penny Stocks . Arthur has diluted share volume to such an extent that was his only option - NOT a strategic move . So ladies and gentleman I understand why many are trying to put a positive spin on this , probably in desperation while some others are clearly manipulating , but actually it’s in a downward death spiral and hopes are fading fast as are the cash reserves which the last placement gave COPL to keep paying the bills . November tomorrow and in effect we have shares in a company which has F&£#k all as assets . Not even the OPL 226 Licence . Plenty of faith being put in Kola I hear , but even on the slim chance all the above is sorted what do you think this Business genius will do if COPL can’t pay their fare share ....... it will have to be a big placing . Finally so if Arthur’s not in the driving seat , just COO on Shorecan , not attending court , not meeting with Essar as if I understand it correctly they have JUST written letters to each other . So unproven well which is in dispute . Prediction 0.21p within a week , if not less