Member Info for belisce6

Yeah.. thats based on the 8 wells going from 100 to 3500 bopd in 18mths time.. So about 400bopd per well would give payback in about 12months.. thats pretty good, cos if at steady flowrate, the production keeps going for another 4 to 5 years.. So the initial well capital would be about 17 to 20% of the total revenue at about 60buck per barrel.. Obviously the farminee would want to make profit on their investment, so am wondering if maybe they only get like 35 to 40% of the project area for which they must fund the capex for wells... on 60buck oil theyd get 100% return within a few years per well, based on the above figues.. I suppose 50/50 wouldnt be bad for rose either.. Effectively revenue of about 4mill usd per yr per well for 4 to 5 yrs for each well, from the second year.. if the first yr is used only for well capex payback.. At 8 wells, thatd be about 32mill usd revenue per yr for 4 to 5 yrs.. opex cost estimates required still.. But could be like about 18mill usd operating profit per yr net to rose on 8 well production (if overall gross opex is say 25 bucks or so per barrel)...

Well if they havenot implemented financing agreements since 2015, i guess they might just drag it out until mid2019 to see how much they could flog off the cai holding for post-pfs perhaps.. better to then plough that money into the mn project with other debt financing.. so without any more dilution.. might make a good story :-) As to me having concerns which i need to take up with management.. well.. i only stated the obvious.. The company is out of cash.. so will have to bring some in kindof nowish :-))

..fair enuff

Yeah.. tanzania also changed theirs recently as well. All has to do with regulating due to bigger foreign companies coming in and taking much of the spoils.. new regs seem to give decdnt freecarry and royalties to the state or its equivalent.. so i think its fai

Chirpycheep.. Yes.. i did consider that.. they could have paid that money directly into the company via a cap raise.. However even that would look silly too.. placing to themselves in order to pay their wages and company admin expenses.. Regardlesd.. they need cash.. very soon.. so will be interesting to see what happens.. Anyone know if the mn project follows the standard 2k dollar or so per tonne mn price, or is it something else ??

I recently came across abm.. It almost looks like a cash shell if one took into account a possible complete failutmre of existing projects.. However.. there will still be some value in thd gold assets and the cobalt ground looks like its in elephant country.. soo.. not a bad specci to get into.. Interesting in them having other potential projects.. although am not to sure if the madini links are really great, seeing that madini could or should possibly just raise capital itself and do the projects themselves if they are all that good... anyways.. with recent local changes to mining industry, things may stabilise over there...

So there isnt enough cash in the bank to cover the payables, but you do not wish to entertain the possibility of a capital raise happening very very soon.. With the director buys possibly being a prelude in ensuring a higher sp for now ? 226mill shares of krs.. you know exactly what i meant :-) I do believe they may cap raise up to that amount very shortly.. at say 0.35p.. Who knows? We shall sooner rather than later, find out.. The more recent announcements mention possible distribution of cai holding to krs holders.. in due course.. whether it is this, or an outright sale later on, matters little.. other than maximising profit potential for each and every krs holder :-) Would like to see real possible solutions to mn project financing.. that could provide a decent amount of cashflow.. although they could conceivably farmout the entire thing, if they couldnt get most of it debt financed, for some kind of freecarry in the resultant cashflow.. thatd be nice :-)

Just seen mention of 100, an average of 200, and then the 8wells that got up to 3500bopd so about 438bopd per well.. Interesting.. Anyways.. they are permitting for the first two wells.. At about 200bopd per well itd need 5 to get 1kbopd total.. Or 5 by 8mill usd about 40mill usd for the drills... At 1kbopd gives 365k oil annually at 60buck some 22mill usd revenues... so this way capital payback is about 2 yrs.. And production, if flowrates are steady, would last about 12 yrs.. But if the flowrate is 400bopd per well, then obviously capital payback is closer to 12 months or so.. and if the production rate is steady, then it produces for about 6 yrs... If one well was to flow 1000bopd, then the well only has 2 to 2.5years of oil to get out... and capital payback for 8mill usd well would take about 4.5mths... Hmmm.. yes.. the closer to this last possibility, the better.. The 400bopd per well seems acceptable too.. at least for me :-) We shall see...

Hmm.. if that is 1000bopd for one well then that would be great.. cos within one year they would get revenues at 2.5 x well cost.. However i would think that figure may be for more than one well... will look back over rose presentations to see if theyve previously outlined it... This is key to the funding issue.. Cos if the flowrate per well is really good for the initial year, then they wouldnt need much to get going, cos once a few wells are pumping out the oil, then after the profts from that go into successive new wells.. some debt financing will or should also be possible...

226mill shares at 0.35p would give 790k gbp before costs.. I reckon that could happen rather soon, at a maximum.. (If i have any of my facts wrong, please feel free to correct me :-) )

So a couple wells would be 16mill usd But the oil per well is about 717k barrels.. Going from 53wells into 38mmbo.. 717k barrels at say 60usd is about 43mill usd revenue.. With an 8mill usd well cost... The return looks good.. The question though is, what will the flowrate be? ie; how much time will it require to realise the 43mill usd revenue (@$60 oil base) for each 8mill usd well that is drilled.. If the results are decent, then this story may really be a good one :-)

Thanks wonderer.. So if all things were equal.. possibly a 200mbo risked contingent resource in the 1.1bill unrisked prospective.. That doesnt look bad... Its just a question of how they fund the initial wells...

Why is krs not looking at selling out the cai share to a bigger company, then pouring that cash into newer projects? I guess that the main reason would be is that if it gets distributed to krs shareholders, then the individual per share value realised over time, will probably end up much greater... cos krs would be unlikely to be able to offload cai at the top of a spike in underlying sp value... as individual shareholders, the possibility is better...

Just came onto krs and had look at rns's.. Seems like a capital rasie needed by looking at the cash and payables levels in the interims.. Anyone else think that maybe the recent director buys are a prelude.. they have increased holdings by about 10% on average.. so maybe a capital raise coming for 10% dilution or so... Am impressed with the calidus project.. think it might be anything up to 2 to 3mill oz resources by end 2018 (with much of the new stuff being inferred perhaps. But it all counts..) when looking at the klondike extensions and the parallel prospect... :-)) I have the mn project or 8.48milltonnes at 14% giving 1.19milltonnes mn at 90% recovery and $2k per tonne gives a value for the reserves of about $2.14billion.. at 1% thats about 21mill on top of current market cap.. (If i have any of the figures wrong, please feel free to correct)

Based on last trade.. should be 2.66p

Yeah.. another way to look at it.. the bhp figures indicates 8k to 15k dollars per acre or so.. 88e 65% acreage good for hrz sweetspot in net 300k acres is about 195k acres.. At 8k to 15k usd thats about 1.6bill usd to about 2.9bill usd or 2bill aud to 3.75bill aud.. Without adding any of the conventional projects.. I believe that hartleys in their last report had to 10k usd per acre value at the post first horizontal stage... so we probably need that first ice horizontal to get us there.. While they extend the upcoming farmedout western icewine conventonals also into the hrz with a vertical flowtest... :-) I reckon we are probably about a year away from getting to such a level, then some months for an offer to come in.. so end 2019... However, some company may say, after a successful ice2 flowtest, here is 1.5bill usd for everything so please bugger off.. at 2bill aud thatd be close to 35c aud or 20p gbp... Am not sure that many wouldnt be tempted by something like that, say in about 6mths from now...

Am just looking at this and i have a question in regards resource figures.. It is stated as 1.1bill recoverable prospective oil for entire acreage.. Yet after the 3d covering almost 1/5 th of acreage (?) , it is mentioned some 30odd mill recoverable oil.. Have i read something wrong or are there some discrepancies somewhere.. Perhaps something to do with conventional vs unconventional or whatever..

Within 10 to 14 days is official company blurb.. then flow to continue to see decline rates etc...

*fw =dw

It was just a premonition on fw behalf :-) We know how he likes to frontrun everything :-) So 26th june it is... hahaha or was that 25th ?? Cant remember at this moment..