Member Info for belisce6

Asx closed on 3.4c.. I read somewhere current fx to be 1.7737 So thats 1.917 or about 1.92p.. Current level 1.91p

Yes.. there does seem to be confusion on both boards - lse and hc, in regards the artificial lift.. The company has all along said that it is for sucking out the fracc fluid.. which could possibly come out on its own but might take a lot of months based on its potential trickle.. So the AL brought in to speed it up, BUT not too fast, so that they donot dislodge the propant etc... Meaning, once that extra 4000 barrels fracc juice comes out, then the AL stops to allow the well to flow naturally.. The thing is.. as they use the AL and the separators etc, then they will at the same time know what is going on with hydrocarbons coming out etc... So on the ground, each step will somewhat transition into the next one... Too much panic going on.. but i do think there was a purposeful preplanned sell down that was gonna happen anyway.. I believe that many got the got "preflow" interp wrong as well.. It should not have meant before reentry into well and AL fracc fluid recovery.. It should have meant, moment before the representative hydrocarbon flow... so once the fracc fluid AL exercise is at completion :-) Sooo.. everyone can come back now. Its time to play some guessing games again :-) Hahaha...

World cup a out to begin.. Lazy traders bailef outta 88e.. Dont worry.. will spring back up very very soon.. Once all their automatic trades die out :-))

Am not convinced at all that cr dumping causing this sp action at all. Cos as soon as trade halt on asx for cr happened.. there was a large amount of big rounded figure volume trades being sold.. forward selling ?? Who wouldve been dumping such amount of shares in such volume lots ?? The 1/2 and 1mill lots for example... they were a very large % of daily volume.. like 75 to 80 % which did reduce as time went on.. to only 50% then like 25% of daily volume.. to being negligible volume.. There didnt appear to be any dumping on official date of issue.. as seems to be common nowadays across the board.. due to the thing called forward selling.. This mechanism works.. obviously.. especially if the shares to be issued do not need shareholder approval.. so no risk to the actual issue of equity itself..

Cjml.. They went for the hardest first due to the size of the prize.. The massive reward potential even from the onset.. And then being able to hold all the cards, if it comes off.. For me i interpret the list of plans as follows; Plan a = ice2 success and future work as previously discussed; self funded (12mill usd) shorter ice2 horizontal extension (2500ft) OR straight to larger funded pilot production plant 4 to 5 horizontals at 11000ft(?) each (100mill usd or so needed) with western conventionals farmout including hrz vertical components for testing.. Plan b = ice2 not success BUT hrz has all the ingredients for being successful already as we know.. so a possible complete farmout of hrz for the lower rates of 1k to 1.5k usd.. meaning not the best outcome, but still in the game for serious rewards.. cos could still fetch about 100 to 150mill usd of work (5 to 8 drills ? freecarried) from farminee for giving them 33% or about 100k acres of the 309k-odd acres (65% of 475k acres) labelled as good for hrz sweetspot stuff.. Leaving 88e with 42% or so and bex with 25%... preNoic etc.. Plan c = icewine conventional focus Plan d = yukon gold focus In general.. doesnt look like a bad list of options.. still heaps to play for even if ice2 doesnt bring the bacon home.. It is still on course to do it though :-)

*ice3=ice2

I still believe that if ice2 succeeds but only just, that they will grab some new cr money to have for 12mill usd 2500ft horizontal extension.. as soon as operationally possible, then the conventional projects remain as is.. But with the western conventional farmout including hrz drill component.. But if the ice3 comes in an astounding success.. re: 2.5 to 3 times target flowrate, that they then go to planning pilot production setup with 4 or 5 horizontals in the area.. partially farmed out only for that smaller area.. with finance possibly raised or the small area farmout done in an accretive manner.. ie; committment only required based on ongoing success etc.. Who knows what will happen.. We still gotta get thru the current rollercoaster ride...

I do agree with you garrym.. Just that there is the other side of the 50/50 even though i have a feeling the odds are possibly better than that :-) Plan a is still on course.. and probably the most difficult of all, yet the most rewarding if it cones thru.. but plan b c and d look almost like dead certainties... So one can chill while plan a takes its course :-)

If ice2 was to fail.. They will have 3d prelim results covering 2d couple billion barrels prospective in june. with the final interp in aug/sept As well as the yukon 120mmbo 3d seismic prelim, with final interp in q4.. Yukon could easily be farmed out for 2 drill appraisal wells for about 50% freecarry.. and those 3 wells could probably be enuff to fetch a good deal per barrel oil >3 bucks unless it goes to production.. Similar with western conventional.. farmout 52% for full freecarry on the first 2 drills and then some, which would be going for like 800 to 1400mmbo mean gross prospective (based on 2d) at 30% 88e share would be 240 to 420mmbo.. So great plan b and c ahead, if plan a dont work.. Although dw did say that yukon was plan d.. Hmmm.. so perhaps plan a and b were the hrz based on flow results ;-) Cos even if ice2 was to fail dismally, they could still farmout hrz at lowly rate of 1k to 1.5k usd or so, cos it could easily work elsewhere.. think eagleford.. distribution of oil vs dry gas vs wet gas/condensates wells... :-)

Todays trades do look like pointing to possible sp suppression tactics.. Cos initially when the buys were going thru ok, then the whopping sell volume order comes thru.. those 1mill or 1/2 mill trades... I doubt its the latest cr recipients cos they had higher opportunities to get out at... Similarly on asx.. these type of volume orders are on the sell side keeping it looking like there is way more pressure from the sellside... In all fairness ice2 has not reached its potential yet.. But at the same time, the operations are going along completely fine..

You may be onto some truth there punk.. Apart from possibly the last bit... Consistently raising cash will mean these finance houses wanna be in on some profit here and there.. so another crappy rns at a time the sp was looking to be pushed down, shouldnt surprise us at all.. In fact, if the next rns comes out like this one.. operationally A ok but no definitive oil flow (cos they are maybe in the middle of the artificial lift) then possibly they push the sp down even further knowing that it creates cheaper entry into a very well run operation..

Most likely due to glencore having to give up so much to continue in drc.. I see no problem with it.. but maybe the market thinks otherwise...

*0.5tp = 0.55p

The plan was to open the well then do nitrogen lift within a day or so.. The RNS effectively states that this is happening :-) So absolutely nothing negative in the RNS.. The sp was severely dragged down just before ice1 results.. the 0.29p level if anyone can recall.. just after the share purchase plan was closed for 1c level or about 0.5tp level.. Then the ice1 results interp rns's came rolling out, and the sp rise to an intraday high of some 4.25p-ish.. So time to chill :-)

Not 21% but 18.6%...

Conventional 3d final interp due in aug/sept time.. But prelim interp was due in june :-) Once it was also stated that yukon 3d prelim would be due in june, but it has always been stated that final interp due in q4.. So conventional prelim 3d interp could come out this month.. based on dw previous clear statements.. The last one simply stated midyear..

2.38 close on ig.. hmm... They dragged it down severely before ice1 initial results.. So without any rns coming thru.. no panic :-)

The may17 report effectively said the hrz was priced in at about 4p or 7c-ish aud level... back then... Oil price brent was closer to 50buck level then.. There has been about 20% or so dilution since then (oppies and cap. raise), but oil price above 70bucks.. It was also based on net 271k acres and not the current net 300k acres or so.. Surely there is more upside with the greater than 20 bucks going to your bottom line, and 10% increase in net acreage, versus 20% equity dilution.. So at previous 4p.. maybe it should be a couple pence higher at the very least... say 6p or so.. (for a successful ice2 flow.. depending on level of success as well :-) ) However the report mentioned a value for conventional after farmout of about 8c back then ( in its graph)... After 20% equity dilution but with oil price much much higher..just leave it at 8c level.. which back then gave about 370mill aud or about 210mill gbp... which would be just under 4p value... Sooo.. with ice2 success.. if really really good.. would be surprised if doesnt get to 7p+, then if conventional farmout comes in good, before yearend... 10p or so would be on the cards... No mention of the yukon :-)))

Only need farmin partner for initial 8 to 15 wells.. if they get 50% stake in that, then at 60buck oil the partner gets 3 times their investment back (or 2 times investment back as profit), over 4 to 5 yrs if the flowrate is steady.. So a 7.5% to 15% stake kn the total 3d area to farmin partner may be ok.. If the project has been modelled at lower oil price then possibly those % will be a fair bit higher.. But in general, i do believe that a relative 50% stake in the returns after capex payback, for each well that is financed, would be a relatively decent and fair deal..

A 50% slice of a smaller area perhaps.. like only a portion of the 3d area.. covering first 8 wells.. 8 into 53 is 15% of the 3d area.. half of that is 7.5% so something like 50% of directly drilled area with the farminee funds.. or 7.5% interest in entire area that has been 3d'ed.. Looks even better from this angle :-)