Member Info for belisce6

urzz..
The other day cperkin or doneone else posted link on anslyst article for aaog..
In there is the COS breakdown..

Effectively COS is the geological chance of success..
Made up of four variables rated at 0 to 100% each then multiplied by each other..
So for example;
90%×90%×90%×90%= 65.6% COS
80%×80%×80%×80%= 41% COS
75%×75%×75%×75%= 32% COS
70%×70%×70%×70%= 24% COS

So a COS of 25% is VERY good :-)

Breaking down the real djeno figures.. they had
70% (trap geometry) x 80% (reservior) x 90% (seal) x 50% (charge) = 25% COS
So the main issue with djeno is whether the oil rim exists down there in the 104 location like it does in nearby producing fields :-)
Its a fifty/fifty..
But if you just looked at COS youd be saying 75% chance of failure..

Each to their own, what interpretations they make :-)

I only stated by end sept.. cos i factored in a delay.. almost everything gets delayed..

Needless to say... the ceo states service contract (for 100mill) to be sorted within the month.. then gets the sp pushed down for a cap raise by also announcing a Disagreement with essar nigeria sholders.. haha..
Am just hoping this comes back with the original promised statement :-)

As i stated myself.. i got in yesterday.. took the gamble.. cant see why so would or should go lower for now.. i think if the service contract comes.. then 1 to 1.2p is on the cards :-)
(On a spikeup of course...)

As for the nnpc signing off the project.. me thinks they just waiting for the previous service group who got turfed out to accept loss at litigation.. once that happens the cost is entirely clear.. key factor is this.. appears as though nnpc and shorecan are working well together :-)
So even if essar mauritius is trying to shaft them,. 80% shorecan is half locals and in with the nnpc already :-)
Essar mauritius would have to shaft them very well but at same time get in with nnpc on better level than what shorecan is with nnpc...

I will just go back to waiting over next couple wks to maybe even end sept.. for that service contract.. wouldnt think the ceo would be that much of a barsteward.. haha

Hmm. So news on service deal within the nxt 6wks or so ??

I have a feeling that nnpc signs off the leases once that litigation series finally ends.. anyone know when that could be ??

Back to the service contract thing.. if gets announced soon.. think a 1.1 to 1.2p level on a spikeup could happen..
Seeing that the current sentiment is very very negative.. i took a gamble yesterday...
Am just looking a 50% return for starters.. but hoping for the triple come end of sept...

Good luck to all other holders :-)

Patience.. patience... we saw how quick it spiked up couple weeks ago...
So.. itll happen again.. just gotta sit tight:-)
Char is either gonna be drilling for circa 300mbo very soon..
Or its gonna be 8pence/share medium cash-based and drilling for 100mmbo very soon..
Thats how i see it anyways :-)

Decent close to the week.. looking at weekly charts.. the past two wks negative action versus previous few wks positive action now somewhat balance out..

Nxt wk may be somewhat neutral.. hugging this 11p +/- area... then FOMO should kick in just b4 the R1R2 or so...

Good luck to those that are in.. :-)

Farmout possibilities are much more immense than what some are thinking about :-(
Forget about the series of last hrz rns's.. its now onto the next game :-)

Forgot to mention.. cash backcosts on the hrz farmout :-)
Imagine 88e getting 20 to 30% odd of the historical costs on the hrz paid in cash :-)..
There is a real possibility.. sometime between end of 2018 to about nxt easter :-)

No need to panic...

Brom.. i do think dave will pull of a deal like the second version i stated..
Or potentially one with a 33% premium for the 2 drills plus two appraisals.. leaving them completely freecarried for that but with neutral cash out of it.. meaning only a 5 to 7% equity dilution via cap raise still needed..

It would be nice that come q1 we sit back and watch two serious attempts.. horseshoe then stellar drills.. at getting sp to a 12 to 15cent aud level or 7 to 9p... :-)

Hrz farmout could also easily be done if its not for less than 1k usd per acre.. and that they only grab about 100mill worth in the first part.. cos then if using the 475k number, itd mean giving away 21% of total hrz with freecarry on about 4 big horizontals into the hrz... or if they have to use 65% of 475k =309k acres.. then for 100mill usd theyd have to give away about 33% or one third of total hrz...

Either way.. i think that both conventional and unconventional deals are doable.. and not too much pieinthesky etc..
Looking foward to what they come up with :-)
I just hope any deal is very commital.. where farminee must perform work or lose its stake etc...

Its a shame some people cant do some easy thinking..

2 drills at up to 18mill each.. so 36mill usd total needed..
Current 75/25 88e/bex split..
To have 88e at 30% post farmout means 88e/bex can go down to 30/10, so can give away total of 60%...
Using a premium of 33% on the drill part..
Thatd be 60% x 1.33 = 80% of the 36mill total or about 29mill usd..
On top of that, cash payment for backcosts, which i think could be gross 15mill usd or so.. (ie; licence costs, 2d and 3d etc)..
60% (without any premium) of the 15mill is about 9mill usd cash to 88e/bex..
Which easily covers the 36-29=7mill usd remaining from the above drills calculation..
Hence.. 2 drills -stellar etal and bravo et al.. fully freecarried :-)
Maybe stellar in this winter season but bravo in the next..

Going further, if the premium on the drills is 50% and not 33%.. ( i have seen both sets used here and there in recent times).. then the farminee would be up for 60% x 1.5 = 90% of 36mill = 32.5mill plus the 60% of circa 15mill backcosts = +9mill equating to total of 41.5mill usd...
So about 5.5mill usd cash to 88e/bex over the fully freecarried 2 drills.. albiet leaving them with 30/10 split...

Considering the magnitude of prospective resources.. am hopefull they could even go better and get some free carry on couple appraisal wells or more 3d after that...

But would be ok with first scenario i described...
quite pleased with second possibility..
Yet very very happy with the third :-)

The farmout covers financing of the 3 appraisal wells only.. right ?
The purpose is to book "reserves" ? As opposed to 2c resources.. meaning they appraise and do flowtesting..

Anyone know what expected production should be or what they generally expect as daily flowrate for full production in a number of yrs time ?

I would expect after next appraisal 3 drill program that pvr logp farms down even further of does an outright sale.. not having other production assets on line may mean just another farmdown possibly for half of their current stake.. meaning they could get some partial freecarry on direct development costs while using debt for remainder (seeing that financing usually always involves debt and equity raisings)..

Q1drill ? Guyana or namibia ?
I didnt think tullow were going to do a guyana drill until h22019.. and whether its in this jv or on their other ground is questionable..

Osprey is getting ready for drill ?

3d or cpr should be out this mnth.. the md or ceo stated that final report to total this mnth and the market will then be informed.. i just hope they then release some figures :-)

Well if first target zone is about 15days from spud..
Thatd mean middle of week after next week..
So possibly some FOMO or similar kicks in by about next friday..
So maybe the next 4 or 5 trading days are where the sp sits in a lull.. 11p to low 10p area.. perfect for lastminute accumulations :-)

I believe they will probably only announce 3d results once tullow and total have signed off on their own interps.. then eco officially sets the clock on total farmin option..

That way.. eco just goes with the jv accepted final figures..
I dont think there is much else to it :-)

Tis very likely that the other companies corporate style is dragging it along... at the end of the day eco doesnt really want to announce something if all 3 parties havent agreed to the detail..

Although eco couldve said something by now.. who knows?? Maybe some jv party pressure not to.. but why ?

Curious99..
I know what the odds are.. and i have clearly stated my position..
No rosetinted glasses..

Bordeine chance of 900% gain..
Very good chance of minimum 100% gain..
Very slim chance of 100% loss..

Stick to your geological chances of success figures, if you feel that is the only metric that should be used :-)

Soundingoff..
Am in now.. so would like to 30p on mengo alone to happen :-)

I will rephrase the gamble ( as i see it )...

If all 3 horizons fail = 100% loss.
Chance of occurring = quite slim.

If only R1R2 succeeds = circa 75% loss.
Chance of occurring = slim.

If only R1R2 and Mengo succeed = minimum 100% gain.
Chance of occurring = very good.

If all 3 horizons succeed = circa 900% gain at some point.
Chance of occurring = relatively balanced/close to borderline...

Before the great financial crisi of 08/09 there was serious "buy on spud" rampup... those were 100buck + oil days...
Since then.. it certainly seems like " sell on spud" is the go...
Much much more risk averse...
But it also provides opportunities.. its a matter of being realistic..
Calling out a gamble for what it is :-)

The risk is as follows...
You lose 100% if all three horizons fail..
Chances of that are slim..

If mengo djeno fail then maybe lose 75%

If only djeno fails then maybe gain 100%

If all three succeed then maybe gain 900% on a spike up..

I am gambling on a 9 times gain and willing to lose what i put in, for that potential gain :-)

Much better than just chucking that cash at lottery tickets :-)

Once R1R2 is confirmed.. then sp stability kicks in..
Once mengo is confirmed.. would expect a base sp of 15p or so.. spikeup to whatever level...
Me thinks such a base should hold based on overall valuations etc..
(I did state "base" not top of spike :-) )
Djeno as most riskiest will push it sky high.. so i wont state anything in regards to sp base for that one :-)

Might doubleup if sp gets as low as into the 9s though :-)
I think its worth a gamble.. particularly looking at managements compensation tied in with success...
Dont see such opportunities around .
I would say that while djeno is in play, this one is waiting to erupt..
Lovely step by step plays though.. this one should have all traders all over it :-)