Member Info for belisce6

Yes.. but we want them to reveal 3d results..
Am expecting at least double the old 2d results.. potentially 2.5times the previous results.. seeing that they 3d'd the entire acreage yet the 2d was only a part of it...

Taking ages and ages.. but it does appear that they are completing documentation on material that has been agreed by all parties etc.. would be silly if all 3 companies had slightly different results announced for the same thing.. the other 2 companies will have laborious corporate processes for everything.. so.. soon we get the results.. it was stated that itll happen this month :-))

Got my double up... eventually the ask dipped enuff to activate my order..
Onwards and upwards now please ;-)

Rns has been posted on the website.. but no prospectus.. haha..

Keep flippin mr flipper.. want to double up if you let the Ask drop into mid11p area intraday :-))

Rockie.. no problem..
Please do your own research.. dont let the hype suck you in..
The last co. presentation and the last Analyst report have most of the info in it.. :-))
Good luck :-))

Just mentioned it.. cos if someone is bored in the summer doldrums but wants to put a small wager on something "live".. this is a possible goodie :-)))

Offtopic cross-ramp.. (also for those of you that are bored :-) )
Aaog is bout 2 or 3 trading days away from hitting first drill target (=1ish mmbo net, circa 100bopd equivalent, 90% COS), then in 2 weeks gets to second target (4.5ish mmbo net, circa 500bopd equivalent, 70% COS), then 2weeks after the third target (30ish mmbo net, circa 5000 bopd equivalent, 25% COS).. theres a fourth deeper target without details but will be played by ear..
First two targets will probably may double current sp.. but third target much much more( many think)..

Good luck if you join in.. :-)))

If not.. see you later on here soon :-))

Just realised that with mobe and demobe costs covered probably by drill 103 budget.. as soon as r1r2 and mengo come thru, then they will probably immediately give the green light for drill 104 etc..
On top of this the cost would probably be almost half of 103 if only down to mengo as well.. annddd, this is effectively covered by the governments 44% of the 8mill for drill 103...
So with r1r2 and mengo appraised etc.. perhaps any cash needed comes from a small loan against thd money owed by the government or the production resource itself..

If djeno comes in, then most of the above just follows on, however they could also do a cap raise at much higher sp..

Would prefer loan system cos they will have oil very soon to have cash to pay it back asap..

When considering 2 or 3 wells into mengo.. meaning bout 1500bopd (3wells at 500bopd) for about 547,590 barrels per yr (so about 15yrs production)..
At 56% thats 306,600 barrels to aaog.. at 65 bucks gross profit.. thats about 15 5mill gbp per year in cash.. before admin taxes etc.. if left with 10mill cash.. and 75% is for divis.. thats like 7.5/162= 4.6p per share dividend..
Not bad :-) add a fourth drill and increase all by a third.. still having production for 10 to 11 yrs... :-))
I can understand why the Analyst notes give a decent sp level for the Mengo :-)
As for djeno.. will leave that for later :-))

Keep talking... :-)

Believe me someones listening :-)

Historically.. it hit 65ish mill marketcap before the last drill..
Thatd be about 17+ pence... not bad from the recent 8p start :-)
If it happens again..

Was looking at increasing my stake here to double at close to 11p area.. so could do a partial offload after first couple targets are hit.
But the sp has moved a bit too fast away from me :-(
Oh well.. :-)

Strange essar mauritius situation..
Cos if they want out, why not put themselves up for sale to an external party??
Easy peasy..
Instead they offer it to Shorecan, then dck them about just before they get the contingent financing in place for the final nnpc approval..
It makes no sense either way..
The thing bout rosneft being big.. yes.. but is this project wortg them flaffibg about with? Maybe .. maybe not..
On top of that Shorecan is in bed with nnpc.. i think if essar mauritius fcks up Shorecan they fck up nnpc.. cos Shorecan is representing themselves(?) and nnpc against the previous turfed out service provider tenement holder.
On top of this again.. only reason such quick step development is allowed by nnpc is cos of underfunded large local group thats in on the project..
So whats rosneft gonna do with all that ? Not much...
They can only end up bumping off copl.. not the local shoreline group otherwise they gonna have to be very generous to the nnpc...
Just doesnt look likes its worth that hassle, for such a large entity..

Having said that.. if total development costs are circa 200mill usd and you still need 33mill or so..
Thatd only be about 16.5% of the total required... so would make the giving up a work interest in Shorecan much much more viable :-))
And the figures i already posted much better..
Ie; for 16.5% of total project.. you give them 21% of Shorecan etc..
Itd mean with the 16.5 and 10 for service co.. the copl 40% net is only reduced by 13.25 (half the 16.5 plus 10)... so then one applies 26.75% to the bopd etcetc... as i already did for the 35% and 25% possibilities..
Final result in this case cones out at 12p... :-)
So i was close just before :-)

*i made a mistake at the end.. in second part of possibility.. copl has 25% net of entire project.. (not 20).. so 25% of 15kopd at 25buck profit is about 27mill gbp.. at 10pe is about 270mill gbp.. no raisings.. so into 2.4bill shares.. is about 11.4p..
Versus the first possibility giving 9p..
So would very very much prefer that Shorecan actually gives about 25% direct working interest in itself to a new company which will hand over the needed 33mill usd or so...

What % for what usd? Is an unkown.. i dont know how to value it.. but nevertheless.. looks better than copl raising half the 33mill in cash..
Unless it can do it at much higher than 0.5p level...

Interesting times ahead :-))))

From what i understand..
Shorecan (50% copl) has an initial 30 to 50mill loan, contingent on 6kbopd, putting their own 20 to 33mill into the project, and 100mill service deal...
The 20 to 30mill can be from debt or dilution in terms of direct equity in themselves separately or pethaps in shorecan..
Also the service provider will get small financial interest in? Not opl226.. not allowed by EM.. so probably in Shorecan itself.. administratively etc..

So...
Shorecan needs to close the service contract and give the financial interest.. maybe like 12.5% of sharecan given to Service company so with opl226 at 80% Shorecan, the Service company gets 10% of opl226 via this method..

Going further.. Shorecan gotta raise 20 to 33mill.. half is for copl..
Looking at it as no more debt due to fact everything else is effectively a debt arrangement.. then either they go and raise 10 to 14mill usd each on the market... maybe copl does and shoreline uses this to raise debt from their side... however.. dilution of project via Shorecan holding or via capital raise will be done (i think).. 14mill usd is about 11mill gbp... at 0.5p thatd be about 2.2bill new shares... so possibly 4.6bill shares by time oil flows...
(It could be done at current levels or even later much higher at 1p?.. so i use the 0.5p level)
So either that scenario.. or... for the gross total 20 to 33mill usd.. Shoreline and copl give up some more of Shorecan..
Perhaps 20 to 30%??
Lets say its 25% of Shorecan.. then that new entity has a 20% stake in opl226 via this method...
So final wash would be this...
Either Shorecan80%+EM20% = Shorecan(Service co10%+Shoreline35%+Copl35%)+EM20% with copl having raised the cash and having like 4.6bill shares on issue..
Copls 35% of 15kbopd at 25buck net profit is about 40mill gbp earnings, at 10pe is 400mill marketcap into 4.6bill is just under 9p..
Or...
Shorecan80%+EM20% = Shorecan(Service co10%+20%Newco+Shoreline25%+Copl25%)+EM20% with copl raising nothing but Shorecan giving 25% of itself to Newco = 20% of entire project.
Copls 20% of 15kbopd at 25buck net profit is about 22mill gbp earnings, at 10pe is 220mill marketcap into 2.4bill is just over 9p..
(25bagger from here)

Mazik.. Baserite..
I completely agree :-))

And if any of the drills had succeeded, then he would be the best ceo..

I still have not seen what wrong he has done, considering the environment and industry within which char finds itself..

Punters may not be happy with his decisions due to sp movement.. but tuff decisions need to be made now and then to keep the company alive for the next shot at a successful drill..

To small for majors..
And minors not in alaska wouldnt bother..
Perfect for 88e consortium.. haha... but only if it looks good on the 3d :-)

50p party??
Youd be dissappointed ?
Hmmm... :-(

Patience people... patience :-)