Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hello Newtofo,
thank you for your constructive lines.
Here are my thoughts about further phases (certainly my wishes and ideals flow in here, as we have no certainty for anything).
Phase 1:
Should we have the hoped-for success Q1 2023 our shares should be worth 40- 50 cents for sure.
Phase 2:
i.e. we could raise a good 40 to 50 million with a placement of 10% (share issue). If we were to sell the shares at a lower price, I would be very angry.
With this money, it would probably be easy for us to enter the pilot project with our share of around 22% (whoever then takes over the costs for the other 78%.... Origin or a new partner of Origin can make no difference to us).
Phase 3:
If this pilot project flies and we occupy the 6.6 million reserves on the roughly 1/8th of the total acreage, that alone (not including the other 7/8th) should be worth about $1.5 per Falcon share (I'm ignoring a 10% dilution, as the valuation of the reserves should be above the old valuation principles by now and could still rise, in my opinion).
Phase 4
I suspect, however, that we will then very quickly receive very serious takeover bids from large companies (certainly including energy companies from other countries) who want to secure gas reserves here for their own country. A generous lump sum for the undeveloped 7/8 of the 4.6 million acres is also conceivable here. Since these guys realize how the value will shoot up if Falcon moves into Phase 5. These prospective buyers are primarily about securing reserves in a very safe country (I believe these words or similar words were also used in the recording a few days ago). Here I think a $2.5 sale is realistic ($1.5 for the then hopefully proven 6.6 TFC and $1 for the undeveloped land). The importance of a reasonable energy supply is just becoming very clear to all governments (especially here in Europe). It does not depend on a few Euros (please think in the dimensions of a country) when it comes to averting an energy crisis (or also connected with the knowledge that we would be independent of other countries as energy suppliers).
Please do not forget, maybe only on the one drilling level on the 4.6 million acres there is a good 50 TCF of gas........
I suspect that at the latest in 2 to 3 years the issue will be over and we will not reach phase 5.
Phase 5: if phase 4 is skipped.
Well, if Falcon then sells only one third of our share (i.e. we then have only 15 instead of 22% in Beetaloo) and use this money to develop the rest (the other around 4 million acre) I can already imagine a share price of 3 Dollar. That would be the entry into my early retirement or my part time job or we go golfing
If all this does not work out, C'est la vie
Don't worry, everything is and will remain fine with my breathing and probably many readers in this forum. But, if Falcon causes you breathing problems, just find another platform and another stock. Don't waste your valuable time here.
Well, i have read many exciting and imho correct reports.
I am patient with the assumption that we have flown somewhat under the radar due to the elections in the recent past.
What reassures me a bit is that as far as I have read the new government is supporting and that the need for available and affordable energy will be imperative for the country in the current and also following times.
Well, if one or the other voter's heating gets cold in winter or the electricity goes out or is no longer affordable, every government (no matter what color) will have to take care of energy :-)
Quick question: do we already have an info regarding the seismic at the planned drilling sites. Since these results are the foundation for the next wells goes only then with the drilling.
PS: I am a foreigner, sorry if I have expressed myself a bit bumpy
Hello all,
enclosed is a copy from a German language forum on the subject of Falcon Oil 12 years ago. I suspect that perhaps some of our major shareholders may have struck then 12 years ago.
If we sell in say 2 years for $1, these guys would have their stake back after 14 years.
If we were to succeed, I suspect these investors would not be very happy with $1 (cost price in 2010).
I can imagine that these guys usually don't want to wait more than 10 years for a risky investment and if they do, they want to multiply their investment in case of success. Especially if there is a risk of total loss. Is however everything only my assumption. The lines below are not from me but from a German forum.
Many greetings
Beetaloo
Here is the copy 12 years ago from the German speaking forum:
January 2010:
Offer Memorandum
Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Pty Ltd
ACN 132 857 008
For the placement of 10 million - 50 million Shares at US$1.00 per Share with an attaching option in respect of each issued Share, exercisable at US$1.25 each to raise between US$10 million and US$50 million (the Offer).
Beetaloo Basin Project, Northern Territory of Australia
THE SHARES AND ATTACHING OPTIONS OFFERED UNDER THIS OFFER MEMORANDUM ARE
OF A SPECULATIVE NATURE. THE INTERESTS DESCRIBED ARE OF AN EXPLORATION AND
EVALUATION STAGE. ONLY INVESTORS EXPERIENCED IN INVESTING IN EXPLORATION
COMPANIES SHOULD CONSIDER SUBSCRIBING TO THIS OFFER.
THE OFFER IS MADE TO INVESTORS QUALIFIED UNDER SECTIONS 708(8) AND 708(11) OF
THE CORPORATIONS ACT 2001 (CTH).
27 JANUARY 2010
... but since we are still in rough terrain, we are much better off with an off-road vehicle than with a Ferrari. :-)
Yes, I would also like it if some things would run faster. However, I'd rather we go a little slower with hopefully greater success than a quick miss.
Hello Stebol,
i hope you haven't been on this forum for many years hoping for $200 per acre, because that would be just under 20 cents per share on a sale. Sure, if our next wells were as "successful" as they were in Hungary over 10 years ago, then yes.
If the next 2 wells yield at least 3 cu.ft/day per 1000 meters I would feel screwed at a price below $1.
Greetings
Beetaloo
Hello all,
i have a question.
Now we, or rather our neighbours, are at about the magic / economic limit of 3 mmsfd. and that without being able to look back on many years of experience in the Beetaloo. And without possible improvements to the borehole.
Of course there are still some issues and problems until the horse is tamed but it sounds good to my ears.
I don't understand why the market isn't responding somewhat positively.... or am I misinterpreting the news from the neighbourhood?
best regards
Beetaloo
Hello New,
Thank you for your nice and constructive summary!
@all:
I have the impression that POQ is still in good spirits.
We have to be a little patient now. It's me at FOG exempts for over 15 years. 12 or 18 months now I don't have any stomach ache either.
I am also a layman, so I would like to refrain from assessing the technical expertise of the wells.
Even if I was an expert or would consider myself to be one, it would be a bit presumptuous, perhaps even outrageous, to constantly question the competence of the men working on the borehole (without having detailed knowledge, without having an insight into the documents on site, etc.).
Yes, also share the opinion of some members: each drilling costs many millions. Just doing something quickly and not being successful doesn't get us any further... no, it could be the end of us.
I think it's excellent that we're doing everything we can to make our next Amungee well a success.
Because... I don't want to imagine if it doesn't turn out to be a success.
But if we're successful... I'll play golf too.
Best regards
Beetaloo
Hi BorntoBouggie,
thanks for your input.
Did I read that right, you had dinner with Ben Law?
Sorry, I'm a foreigner and may have misunderstood the language.
Short question:
Am I correct in assuming that you are not a "normal investor" (like probably 99% of the participants here on this forum)?
The history etc. by Petrohunter is set out very nicely.
Thank you very much for your qualified and constructive contributions. Glad you're on board.
Best regards
Beetaloo
"This modelling indicates that the Mid-Velkerri shale is capable of flowing gas in excess of
5 million standard cubic feet per day (“mmscfd”) per 1,000-metre, which has been verified by
independent subsurface expert, Subsurface Dynamics, Inc."
Well, I think we all assumed higher numbers.
Maybe we (and the market) hoped too much for this wildcat in the first step.
I don't understand the sentence inserted above or I can't rate it.
Maybe with Falcon we are in the "heart" of a possible Beetaloo future :-)
I have a short request. Unfortunately English is not my first language.
I just went through my head again with the 75%.
Since Origin holds around 77.5% and if I'm not completely wrong, does that mean that the "old funds" are already gone?
If there were no funds at all, as I understand it, origin would have to bear 77.5% and we 22.5% (in the ratio of the shares 22.5 to 77.5).
Maybe I'm reading and translating it wrong into my native language or do I have a problem with the logic?
Do we have any information on how much of the agreed money from Origin for Beetaloo has already been used?
If e.g. 100 million are still available, but we need a total of 200 million for our planned projects, that would be around 25 million for Falcon (at 75%) according to my calculations.