Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Hello Newtofo,
my thought is to hold back on the approx 100 million wells (half in 2023 and the other half in 2024) -as far as possible- and participate only with the area that is carried (thus about 6% of 100% in a 6,400 acre area/ 22% from 30 million out of 100 million dollars).
I think these wells are, after all, still for the purpose of demonstrating economic viability and not "classical" production. Perhaps we should give preference to the young Beetaloo - men Brian and Riddle.
Maybe a start at later wells would be more economical for us (falcon). The drilling costs should become cheaper from time to time (with increasing experience etc..), the risks/problems with the drillings with increasing experience better controllable.
And the way I see Philip, he still wants to have a cushion on his account.
Quick question: have we had any indication in the recent past what a complete new well with a total of 6 star horiontals (3 kilometers each) in the Beetaloo would cost.
Thanks and best regards
Beetaloo
Dear smallfish,
I think this is just picking words from my lines.
If drillings in the direct neighborhood (in which we are not involved) become direct hits (the drillings will reach up to 3 kilometers, partly in all directions) then I assume that we should not always expect dry holes (a little bit further) on the adjacent area.
For the doomsayers: of course, this also applies in the case of drilling a dry hole!
Please a little more confidence!
BR
Beetaloo
Hello all,
a few days ago I wrote that we might see a completely new partner and possibly increase our share.
My wish for a higher share was to have scope for further drilling here.
The new developments are completely different. We have a saying by Wilhelm Busch (1832 to 1908) "first things come differently and second things come differently than you think".
I think Newtofo pointed it out very well (thanks for your great contributions):
the option to participate in drilling (for giving up some of our country's crumbs) and at the same time prove the reserves and economic viability are a sensational story for us.
In addition, still have our 22%, are carried for the next wells and will be carried for another 30 million (pro rata). The risk of drilling now lies predominantly with others and we can not be so easily pushed out of here.
Friends, I think this is great!
As far as our new partners are concerned: the danger of pushing us to the wall has been defused (caution should still be maintained).
But these guys have way more momentum than Origin.
My opinion, we now have 3 parties here that will "rock" together on our 4.6 million acre!
Philip has done a super job here again and will continue to do so! I appreciate his way very much and am glad that we have such an excellent CEO in our company.
Best regards
Beetaloo
Dear Ole,
I'm not quite sure what the purpose of your questions is.
A personal advice, maybe pension fund would be a good or better investment alternative for you.
Everything we write here is pure speculation (just like buying shares of the company, no matter when).
From my point of view, we have the opportunity to improve our current situation here through our right of first refusal.
I could imagine here that we are carried for further drilling work or possibly get a larger share of the area.
.... Or even a mixture of both points, maybe even taking over the driver's seat.
Or maybe nothing at all, maybe we'll be squeezed out of here in short order. And we might not even get the equivalent of the current share price.
Even if we have to issue new shares, so what, as long as we get another equivalent value (space or assumption of costs) in reasonable proportion.
A completely new partner would be nice, e.g. Inpex, who takes over a large part of the total area, puts us in the driver's seat and completely carries the next 4 or x wells.
He may also be happy to secure supplies already (like Origin) (if we are successful here) from a future production.
What I don't quite understand: before the energy crisis in some parts of the world, at much lower gas prices, and before successful exploration and work in the Beetaloo Basin, large companies were willing to pay or contribute far more than they are now?
(even with the 5.5% and the supply contract e. g.). (Sorry for the box sentence, English is not my native language).
So it all seems very strange to me. I don't believe it. My gut feeling also tells me that.
Since I also had to commit myself when buying shares here, I also like to commit myself here - as one of a few forum participants.
I think we will see a completely different partner here with far better conditions for Falcon than now.
Let's just keep our fingers crossed and wait and see.
Greetings
Beetaloo
Hi Newtofo,
there are probably a few large companies that serve almost the entire value chain and should therefore make the 5.5% acceptable and calculable. There are also companies where availability and thus price stability through their own reserves are also a priority. Just my opinion.
BR
Beetaloo
Hello,
if I am not mistaken, a preemptor has the option to enter into a valid purchase agreement on the same terms.
Thus, the question about the subsequent $1 increase is moot. My understanding is that FOG can step into a valid purchase contract. Contracts must be honored. Of course, I don't know the exact wording of the contracts and also not the corresponding national law.
I can't answer the question why other suppliers didn't enter before and let Sheffield and Tamboran go first.
Maybe from Origin's point of view they didn't want to bring in any of the other big boys. Maybe there are or were still unknown reasons.
Maybe previous talks with other interested parties were designed to steer the purchase in the direction of BS/ Tamboran. We don't know and we won't know.
Well, we could speculate a lot here. I also found some women sexy only at second glance in my past life.
But the current situation is now exciting for other guys working in Australia. ..... and not only for them!
Let's assume that the current Falcon /Origin acreage is the centerpiece and the neighboring acreage is proving to be less than lucrative.
I am assuming that our acreage is profitable, otherwise I would not be here at all, unlike a few other forum participants. Otherwise I would not be a shareholder who has always bought shares regularly, again just a few days ago.
Origin has already secured a part of the production. In the north there is a plant that cost 30 or 40 billion US dollars. This is to be expanded and also "fed" for many years to come.
The foreign countries scream loudly for gas. The cries will become louder and louder in the coming years regardless of the current situation (war, etc.).
Falcon's 22% is free of supply obligations. It would be almost negligent in my view for several big guys not to buy in now for a few hundred million dollars and put FOG back in the driver's seat. If I were a shareholder in one of these big companies I would raise this question very critically at the next AGM. Also, behind some potential buyers are governments, also as an opposition leader I would put salt in this wound.
Beetallo's location is great, the country is great. And what many people forget, we have a very good CEO. Yes, that's also very important for a company that wants to come in.
Relying on the government to overturn the deal between Origin and Tam/Sheffield I would not. We need to get in here now!
Well, I think Philip (meaning also his companions, business associates and network) have been in talks with possible backers/investors/shareholders for a long time (even before the announcement of the sale and the final terms ).
I think it is complete nonsense to assume that Philip is only now starting to make initial contacts.
These talks can be built upon - even in a changed form - even in the very short term.
These were my thoughts.
At this point, many thanks to the other shareholders for your valuable contributions! Really
It is not pleasant, most stock markets know only one direction right now. Almost regardless of country and sector.
If I have just seen correctly, the share price of our neighbors is already well below the new issue price.
Thank you Longknife for your comments.
Yes, I can't reconcile these questions either. I am surprised that these thoughts have not yet been taken up more intensively by several forum participants.
My various speculations :
A, There are or were already behind the scenes agreements between all involved (Falcon, Tambo, Brian) to be implemented afterwards. Why this was not implemented in advance, no idea.
Perhaps there was massive trouble in the recent past between Falcon and Origin that we don't know about, which would have had a very unfavorable effect on negotiations.
B, Maybe Mr. R and Mr. S are suffering from megalomania.
C, Perhaps Mr. Riddle and Brian Sheffield are now getting to know their grandmaster.
Perhaps Phillip had knowledge of the talks and was cool waiting for the results, coupled with the knowledge of being able to get in on an offer that was attractive from his point of view because of the right of first refusal.
As I estimate this smart fox, he may already have a financier / partner in the drawer. Of course he is now listening to possible proposals from Mr. Riddle and Brian Sheffield.
But since Philip feels much more comfortable in the driver's seat, it remains very exciting.
Hello all,
Yes, exciting times for us Falcon shareholders. Hitch**** couldn't have done it better... except that I'm invested here with far more money than for a movie ticket.
@Newtofo: no, we have to forbid you to sell the big parts of your shares, too big would be the danger to lose you as a valuable forum member.
Times a big thank you to all members for the very constructive contributions here. Really class!
Short question as a foreign speaker who sometimes struggles with the English language:
Could the sentence: """"If it does, Tamboran will still be required to complete the Transition regardless of Falcon's position. """" be related to the following sentence """""If an exercise of Falcon's purchase option was to occur Tamboran will need to consider alternative uses for the relevant portion of the capital raise"""""
Is this referring to the proposed Tamboran share issue?
Sorry, as I said, in some cases I have to translate into German first and sometimes here a different context arises.
My personal opinion on the current situation:
I think the current situation can even be a great opportunity for us. Moreover, I assume that we (with whoever on our side) will exercise the purchase option.
Best regards
Beetaloo
Hello Laminnow,
please check if you are in the right forum.
Here in the forum are predominantly shareholders of Falcon Oil who have an interest in the well-being, the continuance and a development on eye level with future partners of Falcon Oil.
The current behavior of those interested in buying Origin's share shows very well what value we would have in a future partnership.
Wilhelm Busch (1832 - 1908) First things come differently, and secondly than one thinks.
Let's see what happens in the next weeks.
Best regards
Beetaloo
Up front, I would imagine Phillip is getting some interesting calls now.
It was certainly known in the market that Origin wanted out. However, it was certainly unsuspected that the future buyer would receive such a friendship price.
Yes, to me it even seems almost like a partial gift as between father and son. But surely there are no family ties here, or can there be any other reasons for this "gift"?
For this price, there are certainly several big players on the market willing to step in and possibly give Fog more room to maneuver. I think Philip and also his former mentor have very good contacts and an exciting phone number directory he could call on short notice.
@ fleurs, Brian holds about 8% of Falcon, which is about 2% of the current total pie of the current Falcon/Origin territory.
If his deal with Tambo works out his personal share of the current Falcon/Origin territory is around 40% which is about 20 times.
Guess what I would be more interested in. I wouldn't care about the 2% if I could get just under 40% of 4,500,000 acres in the Beetaloo for an apple and an egg!
Again, I learned something. In the future, I'll listen to my gut even more.
Philip O'Quigley
First of all: I think the 60 million refers to Australian dollars, so if I am not mistaken we are only talking about about 40 million US dollars.
The current value of the 5.5% royalty interest could perhaps be converted (based on the Falcon figures paid here by Brian for the 2% (or was it 3%) in the spring).
I have been following Beetaloo for many years, first via Digital Eco (predecessor to Petrohunter), then Petrohunter, then Falcon Oil.
So much money has already been spent during these years (the work under Brunner, Hess, Origin).
Now I just hope Falcon doesn't get kicked out of the race as soon as possible. A lot of drilling costs a lot of money, not only for Tamboran but also for Falcon.
Hopefully POQ will find a sponsor for us as well, who will stand by us with the upcoming costs for our participation (without bleeding us dry).
What amazes me is that when Hess left many years ago, we had at least 3 to 4 other very large companies besides Origin ready to join Beetaloo at very short notice as far as I remember.
I think we had our backs to the wall at that time and Philip was mega cool and had very successful talks in a very short time. There was also an article in some newspaper afterwards.
When it comes down to it, he is the 100% right man.
And now, many years later, we and our neighbors have drilled several very promising wells and there is no buyer with deep pockets and the willingness to pay reasonable money?
Just now, when it becomes clear to many people and also countries how important a secure energy supply is.
Did I read wrong or could Falcon get in on the same terms as Tamboran? Maybe Phillip should talk to 3 or 4 companies others who rock the field with us.
I don't want to see us (Falcon and us shareholders) get under "the wheels".
I would love to be in the driver's seat with Falcon and not in the spare tire box.
So, I am very anxious to hear Philip's next message.
Tamboran Resources looms large at Origin Energy's Beetaloo Basin
Hello everyone,
my gut tells me that I don't like this news very much!
Yes, we still have very little to no closer info.
Also, I don't find a sum of 150 million (whether US or Canada dollars) particularly impressive.
I also suspect that Brian may be the driving force here.
He may want to acquire (or be involved in) as many acres as possible in the Beetaloo here for relatively little money (price per acre).
In the spring of 2022, Brian bought into Falcon for 20 Canada cents per share. That equates to a very rounded valuation of the of $200 Canada per acre and around $150 to $160 per acre. As I said, I'm a fan of round numbers.
Oh yes, at this point Falcon is still carried by Origin (in whole or in large part) for the next action now coming up.
How would this point be handled in an implementation of the current Origin discussion with Tamboran (or other interested parties)?
I also don't understand why Origin doesn't wait a bit (possibly until our next hopefully successful results) and then go into talks with the really big guys (e.g. Inpex) and real sums. Origin is surely not dependent on 150 million in the short term, especially when, in my view, much larger sums could be on the table in possibly 1 year.
If large areas in the Beetaloo should be sold here now to from my view dumping prices I hope only that Falcon is not completely "watered down" with the procurement of funds for the participation the actions planned for 2023/2024. I don't want to see Falcon shares or space sold at dumping prices to raise funds for participation in the 2023/24 projects.
This brings to mind Goethe's Sorcerer's Apprentice.... The ghosts I called, I can't get rid of them.....
Greetings
Beetaloo
Hello Mojomusketeer,
thank you very much for your contribution.
I think it is great - yes, I would almost like to speak of an altruistic behavior regarding your person. It is great that there are still such people.
You write here your first contribution to warn.
However, I'm a bit surprised what led you to this forum in the first place. Too bad I can not explain it to myself.
There are so many better ways in the world to prove yourself as a true helper than in a stock forum.
Wonderful greetings
Beetaloo
I am very much looking forward to the upcoming World Cup in Qatar. We will certainly see exciting games here again.
Then, as in all past World Cups, we will suddenly have well over 80 million soccer experts here in Germany. These experts are suddenly far superior to all national players, coaches and captains of the German team.
It's just a pity that very few of these "professionals" have ever stood on the soccer field, and if they have, they have hardly ever played successfully in important games.
BR
Beetaloo