Member Info for BeContrarian

It’s interesting they’re buying shares now. I would’ve thought it would be if the price was struggling. Do they see news on the horizon I wonder?

I think regardless of what it does in the near term, those holders who are playing traders thinking some free shares might come their way are taking a pretty big risk if you ask me.

If someone says they are going to punch you in the face tomorrow. You don’t sit and wait for the punch to land.

Much in the same way, with news of the tender now out, expect any price adjustments to happen now, I’d suggest…

‘The action happens tomorrow in my opinion when the shares are bought and cancelled. I don't expect any significant buy backs to happen today at 20.6p when tomorrow they can be bought at possibly 17p or lower.‘

Doesn’t make much sense. The news is out so regardless of the mechanics of the tender, the market will adjust to, and price in, the likely value it perceives the company to have now, not tomorrow.

Most brokers deadlines have since gone.

Kooba, your last comment isn’t coming close to a fair representation of what I said. Another straw man. I have no desire to get into a debate on semantics as that’ll get nobody anywhere.

And as it happens it’s curious you keep taking general comments as a personal slight on you. Despite your protestations it’s quite telling you recognise yourself in some of the criticisms being levelled at the general tone of the BB.

I’ll give you the opportunity of having the last word, as folks of your ilk tend do, as I won’t be engaging in any further posts on this.

You’ve created a bit of a straw man calling it blind faith, my point was that I didn’t see what BT bashing based on his T shirt and his oil analogy was really adding to discussion. That’s not questioning or critique, that’s just bad blooded whinging and there’s been a bit too much of that on here lately.

I still stand by my point that if you decide to hold then you need to accept the current situation for what it is and focus on what’s next. All the hand wringing is a bit overdone and if investors feel as jittery about BT as they’re making out here then it’s perhaps best to cut one’s losses and move on…

Do feel that NGR is ploughing a lonely furrow in terms of trying to keep discussion based on fact rather than gripes and moans. As much as I’m disappointed with the whole Samsung saga, I made a decision (as all holders would have done, one way or another) and as my decision was to hold, I don’t see that I have a right to keep hating BT for what’s passed. I’ve decided to wait and see.

So I feel that whilst we are in a ‘wait and see’ window… By all means we can speculate and discuss devlopment. But I’m really not sure what all this BT bashing is going to achieve, and feel we could all do without that. He’s the CEO of the company we’re invested in. Sure, a lot to prove, but a fairly convincing investor pres and some exciting developments to come in my view.

Some of the comments aimed at him recently are a bit OTT, and wide of the mark anyways.

I found the BT comment about dealing direct with end users as a bit curious considering that’s how it went with both Samsung and Apple. What’re people’s thoughts on this, and taking BT’s comments on board, which semi conductor firms could/should nano be approaching?

I’ve had a listen. I think the questions that were put to BT were excellent, so a well done and thanks to fellow shareholders from me on that front.

I still don’t like his tone around the buyback and the hit he’s implicitly expecting long term holders to take. There was a lot of wilful ignorance in stating facts on this topic which irked me.

That said…Generally I think BT handled the questions pretty well. There seems to be a lot of confidence in the relationship with STM but I can understand his guarded tone and wanting to put a lid on any overconfidence there.

I also picked up a real clarity of thought in terms of their offering and their place within the supply chain and the wider market. The sector seems to be growing but it remains to be seen how much market share Nano can grab, and how well integrated into STM’s plans we can get ourselves…

Trouble a bit of an unfair response to someone who took the time to clarify a point that was at the centre of much discussion, regardless of your differences with said poster.

I always felt that PR was something we needed to focus on and invest in. The website is still not up to scratch really. If the company is going to be a bit more bullish in its outward facing approach and trying to drum up business I’m all for it,

Twogood

I would say LOAM using this as a vehicle to completely exit is very unlikely, if they have been acting in concert with the upper echelons of this company as many suggest. The relationship has been too lucrative for them to give it up. I would actually be glad to see LOAM disappear but I don’t see it happening.

I would say it’s equally unlikely that they will use the tender as a massive trade. I’m not saying they won’t trade it but there’s no way they will pick up circa 40% of their holding without volumes being a dead giveaway and the SP rising as a result.

As I’ve said before something no one has thought about will probably come to pass.

We tried getting our crystal balls out last year and look where that got everybody.

Now everyone seems to have the magic formula to game the tender offer. Take the tender or no, according to your preference, fine.

But let me assure you the market’s efficiency will ensure you probably don’t stand to gain much from trying to trade this. Folks like LOAM will be many steps ahead of you and before you know it the clever plan to extract 20% is in tatters.

Folk are trying to apply a handful of known variables to a situation with many unknowns. It cost us with the Samsung settlement and I feel some folk are just starting all over again with the magical free shares train post tender. It’s myopic and over simplistic. But hey, to each their own.

It’s slightly alarming to hear that some intend to trade the drop. If this share has taught us anything it’s that most of the time, what actually comes to pass is none of what has been discussed on these boards. Now many times people need to learn that, to their cost, I don’t know, but the likelihood is history will repeat itself and something no one thought of will happen.

By all means if folk want to take the tender or not, but trying to predict what will happen post buy back with a view to trading seems a fools errand IMO.

Kooba I’ve chewed this one over myself.

I don’t think you can take too much of a read off it. He’s been essentially ‘locked in’ for years. Selling his stock on the open market would’ve sent alarm bells with TR1s etc. this is a chance for him to extract some value right now and still maintain, in relative terms, a big holding.

This is one of those rare moments when value can be extracted without it sending shockwaves. I don’t blame him considering how long he’s held his shares and if he wants to give himself a payday, it’s his company and that’s fine by me.

I don’t think it really tells you much about the future direction of travel. That’s the conclusion I’ve reached anyway.

Tender suits the bulls because your existing shares are greatly strengthened by the tender (in essence a buy back) a fully subscribed tender and you’ve basically doubled your holding based on current MCap.

Just boils down to if you see the MCap ex div rising organically or not…

I’ve wondered this one myself. Due to not having to notify until the end of the trading day, they could trade this really hard, cause a massive swing up or down, and not have to instantly declare, similar to what happened on ‘settlement day’.

Volumes will be what to watch out for although I guess that the tender won’t require tr1 until after the fact because it’s not being done in the open market.

Full uptake of the 24p subscription takes A LOT of shares out of circulation. It will really concentrate your exposure to any upside. This is why I don’t think it’ll take a great deal of profitability to put the SP into overdrive.

Still, plenty of ifs buts and maybes for that. But I’ve decided to hold and won’t participate in the tender.

Thanks to all contributions on the ‘bull case’ thread I started. Really enjoyed reading people’s thoughts on that.

If (and this is a big if) the guidance is to be believed and if our dots are in a high profile sensor, what’re people’s thoughts on the proposal? When it comes to investing I’ve always been happy with a fair amount of risk (well I wouldn’t be here otherwise!) but I wonder if things pan out, even with modest P/E the buyback could mean the company is in profit by a few mil and the share price could be in £ not pence.

I don’t trust myself/not bothered by the concept of trying to trade the distribution and am warming to the idea of increasing my exposure by sitting on my hands.

What’re others takes on this one?