Finn Cap pt 39 Jun 2020 10:07
DST 3a tested the oil leg in a 10-day Extended Well Test, producing oil at 50–250 bopd using a rode beam pump.
These rates are comparable to Europa’s Crosby Warren field, which produced 216 bopd in its first year. Moreover, at 1.86 mmbbls, the *****tone 2C resource is materially larger than current Wressle 2P reserves of 0.65 mmbbls. Development of the *****tone Flags interval to drain this resource should be relatively straight forward, involve limited capex (~£4m net to Europa) and could happen swiftly.
Horizontal wells will likely be needed to prevent gas cusping and water coning, which makes for more complex drilling and higher costs. Nevertheless, we estimate this project is worth US$2.2m (0.4p/sh) unrisked to Europa and could boost production by ~90 bopd (>40%) as soon as 2022. We also estimate the *****tone interval has an oil price break- even of ~US$28/bbl, not as good as Wressle’s $17.6/bbl but attractive nonetheless and capable of generating a 25% IRR at US$50/bbl Brent.
UK producing assets underpin valuation:
The main attraction for investors remains a potential farm-out of the high-impact Inishkea gas prospect in Ireland, which we value at 3.3p/sh on a risked basis (19.9p/sh unrisked). This assumes Europa farms out a 75% interest in the licence in return for a full well carry on Inishkea. In our opinion, the current share price is entirely underpinned by Europa’s UK producing assets alone at $50 Brent and has nothing in it for Wressle, let alone Inishkea.
Gas prices are low, yes, but this is largely COVID-19 related and declining US LNG exports, new LNG project delays/deferrals and recovering gas demand are expected to tighten the market as we head into winter. UK gas storage capacity also remains minimal, which is important as Irish gas prices are based on UK NBP pricing plus the cost of transporting the gas via subsea pipelines from Scotland. UK gas futures reach ~40p/sh by the end of 2021.
Farm-outs have still been happening too. In April, Providence signed a Heads of Terms with SpotOn Energy for the Barryroe field, offshore Ireland, giving them an exclusivity period until end-October to finalise commercial terms for a farm-out. More recently, Melbana Energy farmed out a 70% interest in Block 9, onshore Cuba. Since the start of May there have also been farm-outs announced offshore Suriname, Cote D’Ivoire and Mexico, and onshore Australia. So don’t rule out a deal for a low-risk, high-reward gas prospect like Insihkea, especially given its proximity to existing infrastructure and situated in a gas market increasingly reliant on imports.
In the meantime, Wressle *****tone is the type of project that management can pursue to keep production, cash flow, and the share price, growing steadily. Partially de-risking the Wressle *****tone Flags development within our valuation results in our risked-NAV and price target increasing 15% to 5.3p/sh.”