Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
"Europa Oil & Gas, whose major share-holder is Reabold Resources seem to be in a parlous position" As far as I know reabold has no large share holding in EOG. (At the Moment). Williams is on the board and my have shares but would certainly not be in the major category.
(Page 36 on the below link click on Programme for Government)
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/programme-for-government-what-s-in-the-five-year-plan-1.4279046
DST 3a tested the oil leg in a 10-day Extended Well Test, producing oil at 50–250 bopd using a rode beam pump.
These rates are comparable to Europa’s Crosby Warren field, which produced 216 bopd in its first year. Moreover, at 1.86 mmbbls, the *****tone 2C resource is materially larger than current Wressle 2P reserves of 0.65 mmbbls. Development of the *****tone Flags interval to drain this resource should be relatively straight forward, involve limited capex (~£4m net to Europa) and could happen swiftly.
Horizontal wells will likely be needed to prevent gas cusping and water coning, which makes for more complex drilling and higher costs. Nevertheless, we estimate this project is worth US$2.2m (0.4p/sh) unrisked to Europa and could boost production by ~90 bopd (>40%) as soon as 2022. We also estimate the *****tone interval has an oil price break- even of ~US$28/bbl, not as good as Wressle’s $17.6/bbl but attractive nonetheless and capable of generating a 25% IRR at US$50/bbl Brent.
UK producing assets underpin valuation:
The main attraction for investors remains a potential farm-out of the high-impact Inishkea gas prospect in Ireland, which we value at 3.3p/sh on a risked basis (19.9p/sh unrisked). This assumes Europa farms out a 75% interest in the licence in return for a full well carry on Inishkea. In our opinion, the current share price is entirely underpinned by Europa’s UK producing assets alone at $50 Brent and has nothing in it for Wressle, let alone Inishkea.
Gas prices are low, yes, but this is largely COVID-19 related and declining US LNG exports, new LNG project delays/deferrals and recovering gas demand are expected to tighten the market as we head into winter. UK gas storage capacity also remains minimal, which is important as Irish gas prices are based on UK NBP pricing plus the cost of transporting the gas via subsea pipelines from Scotland. UK gas futures reach ~40p/sh by the end of 2021.
Farm-outs have still been happening too. In April, Providence signed a Heads of Terms with SpotOn Energy for the Barryroe field, offshore Ireland, giving them an exclusivity period until end-October to finalise commercial terms for a farm-out. More recently, Melbana Energy farmed out a 70% interest in Block 9, onshore Cuba. Since the start of May there have also been farm-outs announced offshore Suriname, Cote D’Ivoire and Mexico, and onshore Australia. So don’t rule out a deal for a low-risk, high-reward gas prospect like Insihkea, especially given its proximity to existing infrastructure and situated in a gas market increasingly reliant on imports.
In the meantime, Wressle *****tone is the type of project that management can pursue to keep production, cash flow, and the share price, growing steadily. Partially de-risking the Wressle *****tone Flags development within our valuation results in our risked-NAV and price target increasing 15% to 5.3p/sh.”
Discovered in 2014, the development of this field has been a long time coming, with the project bogged down for years with local planning approval issues. However, Wressle was finally granted planning consent on appeal on 17 January 2020.
The North Lincolnshire Planning Inspector also allowed the application for costs by the operator, Egdon Resource, against North Lincolnshire Council, with a gross sum of £403k received from North Lincolnshire Council in settlement. Europa’s share of this award is ~£121k. The stage is now set for Wressle production to commence in H2 2020.
Wressle is located onshore UK, in the East Midlands, and straddles the PEDL180 and PEDL182 licences. Europa has a 30% interest in the project, which is operated by Egdon Resources (30%).
The other partner is Union Jack Oil, which has just announced the acquisition of Humber Oil & Gas’s 12.5% stake for £500k cash. There is also a deferred consideration of £1.04m payable to on commercial oil production to Calmar LP, appointees of Celtique Energie Petroleum Ltd, the original vendors in the acquisition by Humber.
The field was discovered by the Wressle-1 exploration well, drilled to vertical depth of 1,814m in August 2014. Petro-physical evaluation of MWD log data indicated over 30m of potential hydrocarbon pay in three main intervals – 6.1m in the Ashover Grit, 5.6m in the Wingfield Flags and 19.8m in the *****tone Flags.
Four intervals were tested between February and March 2015, flowing an aggregate 710 boepd during testing operations across the different intervals:
?Ashover Grit – free flow of 80 bopd and 47 mcfd (88 boepd).
?Wingfield Flags – free flow of up to 182 bopd and 0.456 mmcfd (258 boepd). ?*****tone Flags zone 3 – free flow of up to 1.7 mmcfd and 12 bopd (295 boepd). ?*****tone Flags zone 3a - 77 bopd when swabbed.
A September 2016 CPR identified gross 2P reserves on the Wressle structure of 0.65 mmboe in the Ashover and Wingfield Flags and gross 2C contingent resources of 1.86 million boe in the *****tone Flags.
The current development scope includes the re-entry of the Wressle-1 well, recompletion of the Ashover Grit interval and perforations of the Wingfield Flags. These two reservoirs will then be comingled, with the produced oil trucked to market. Reservoir engineering analyses points to an initial production flow rate of 500 bopd gross from the Ashover Grit interval, equating to a net share for Europa of 150 bopd.
At that rate, we estimate Wressle will boost Europa’s cash flow in FY2021 by ~£1.6m at US$40/bbl. We also estimate the project has an NPV10 net to Europa of US$3.3m (0.6p/sh) at our long-term Brent oil price of US$50/bbl.
*****tone development to follow?
Wressle-1 is only intended to evacuate the Ashover Grit and Wingfield Flags intervals. It will not produce from the *****tone Flags as the well is sub-optimally located for that interval. This is despite the *****tone already having two wells tests, as highlighted earlier. DST 3 tested
Finncap today:
“ Europa has lagged its peers in the sector rally, which we believe is unwarranted as start-up of the highly profitable Wressle oil field remains on track for H2 2020 and will materially boost production and cash flow. Moreover, this first phase of development is not targeting the *****tone interval, which contains ~3x the resource. We take a closer look at this follow-on opportunity that would be relatively straight forward and quick to develop and would involve limited capex. De-risking this resource helps raise our risked-NAV and price target 15% to 5.3p/sh.
Wressle on track. As the start-up of the Wressle oil field gets nearer, we have taken a deeper dive into the project and the upside potential it offers beyond the current one-well phase of the development. Wressle is located in the East Midlands, onshore UK, and is on track for first oil in H2 2020 when it will more than double Europa’s production. With an oil price break-even of just US$17.6/bbl, it will also boost FY2021 cash flow materially – we estimate by £1.6m even at US$40/bbl Brent.
?Further development potential. Wressle-1 is only intended to evacuate the Ashover Grit and Wingfield Flags intervals at Wressle. It will not produce from the *****tone Flags as the well is sub-optimally located for that interval. This is despite the *****tone already having two well tests that produced oil at 50-250 bopd. Moreover, the *****tone 2C resource is almost 3x current Wressle 2P reserves. Development would be relatively straight forward, involve limited capex and could happen quickly. The project should also get a much smoother path through the planning approvals process given that the partners have already successfully appealed against North Lincolnshire Council’s objections to the initial Wressle project.
?Attractive low-hanging fruit. We estimate the Wressle *****tone is worth 0.4p/sh unrisked to Europa and can boost production by over 40%. We also estimate this interval has an oil price break-even of ~US$28/bbl, not as good as Wressle’s $17.6/bbl but attractive nonetheless and capable of generating a 25% IRR at US$50/bbl Brent. It may not be a company maker, but this is still highly attractive low- hanging fruit that can provide a material boost to production and cash flow.
?Raising price target. We are raising our risked-NAV and price target by 15%, largely as a result of Wressle *****tone de-risking. The main attraction for investors remains a potential farm-out of the high-impact Inishkea gas prospect in Ireland, which we value at 3.3p/sh on a risked basis (19.9p/sh unrisked). But in our opinion, the current share price is entirely underpinned by Europa’s UK producing assets alone at $50/bbl Brent and has nothing in it for Wressle, let alone Inishkea.
Wressling with valuation
As the start-up of the Wressle oil field gets nearer, we have taken a deeper dive into the project and the potential upside it offers beyond the current one-well Phase 1 development
Do not trust the governments in the UK they get us in a mess with there cheap money policies then cripple the banks with there bad debts that they create. Gordan Brown's economics lives on.