HHR25 Jan 2014 15:07
And this However, I noticed that there is currently a lot of BB discussion about one MF candidate: Helphire (LON:HHR) : “The Company is engaged in the provision of non-fault accident management assistance and related services. Its main revenue is derived from replacement vehicle hire, the financing of vehicle repairs and the management of personal injury claims for the innocent parties involved in motor accidents.” On further investigation, I am going to forego the simple selection, and instead discuss the merits of HHR. It has a market cap of £166m, a ROC of 58%, an EY of 22%, and an MF rank of 95%. Their seems to be some “special situation” occurring with HHR. Stockopedia lists its (FCF) Price to Free Cashflow as 5.78, which is very low. The great thing about Stockopedia is that it actually breaks down the cashflows. In the latest set of accounts, it has £31.2m in CFO (Cash from Operating Activities), and net cash inflow of £29.0m from investing activities. The company has had a number of such inflows over the years, and seems to be related to disposal programs. Although revenues have halved from 2008 to 2013, ROCE has actually improved.Let me ignore these disposals, and strip out what look to be expectional investing inflows. It appears, then, that a reasonable estimate of capex expenditures is about £2.5m. So free cashflow is about £28.7m (=31.2-2.5). Given a market cap of £166m, that means that my adjusted PFCF is 5.78 (=168/28.7). That’s an implied return of 17% (the inverse), which is very good. But I think the story is even better than that. The company had net cash at the year end. The interest paid last year was £460k, which I am going to take as negligible. What’s more, on 5 December 2013, the company placed £57.5m to grow its business. The shares represent 42.3% of the enlarged share capital. They were also placed at a premium to the market, which shows quite some interest. The company has a ROC of 58% and a ROCE of 39%, as calculated by Stockopedia. Suppose it can only generate a 10% return on the money placed, though. Maybe it will take time to invest its money, or whatever. I will also assume no gearing. So a 10% return on £57.5m placing, add in £28.7m existing cashflows, gives forward free cashflows of about £35m. How much will the market pay for these cashflows, given its high ROC and low gearing? I don’t know, but i would certainly hope more than 10. 15? Very feasibly. Let me split the difference and call it 12X. So we’re looking at a company that may be worth £420m (= 12 multiple x 35m free cashflows). Current market cap: £165m. Seems like a lot of upside there, which is why I want to put it in the portfolio