IC10 Sep 2015 13:08
Shares in Aim-traded Tristel (TSTL:95p), a maker of infection prevention, contamination-control and hygiene products, came within a penny of hitting my upgraded target price of 110p in early July, so it's hardly a surprise that price has come off the boil slightly.
I first advised buying the shares at 60p ('Clean up on superbugs', 6 May 2014), subsequently updated the investment case at 80p ('Riding bumper profits', 26 February 2015) and last recommended running profits at 92p in June ('Blue sky potential', 10 June 2015). Since my last article was published the company has paid out a special dividend of 3p a share.
However, with Tristel set to report record results for the fifth consecutive six month period when it releases its full-year results on Monday, 12 October, buoyed by strong profit contributions from direct sales operations in the UK, Germany and Australasia, I feel that there is scope for the share price to return to those summer highs.
Ahead of the figures, analysts Paul Hill and Hannah Crowe at research firm Equity Development are pencilling in full-year revenues of £15.5m, implying 15 per cent like-for-like sales growth in the 12 months to end June 2015, and an operating margin in excess of 16 per cent, a 2.6 percentage point hike on the previous financial year. If achieved, this would result in pre-tax profits (before share-based payments) of at least £2.5m, or 38 per cent more than the £1.8m of profits reported in fiscal 2014.
The business is highly cash generative too. Net funds are forecast to have risen by £1.1m to £3.7m in the 12-months to end June 2015 which covers the vast majority of the £1.25m cost of the special dividend. Expect a 37 per cent hike in the normal dividend to 2.2p too. Post the special payout, net cash on the balance sheet is the equivalent of almost 6p a share.
Strong growth profile
And there is no reason at all to expect the growth to end here either. Indeed, chairman Francisco Soler notes that his company has "a more exciting pipeline of new product developments than I have seen at any time in our corporate history. At the same time we are moving forward with regulatory approvals in new, game-changing markets." Reflecting this positive outlook, analysts at Equity Development predict revenues will rise by a further 15 per cent in the current financial year to £17.8m to drive up pre-tax profits up by a fifth to £3m. On this basis, expect EPS of 5.2p and another hike in the payout to 2.6p a share.
Key to maintaining this double-digit sales growth rate is Tristel's high-margin and patented chlorine dioxide technology healthcare products, accounting for 85 per cent of sales. Prospects are rock solid. For instance, the company's best in class clinically proven consumables product, Tristel Wipes, is the most widely used decontamination method in ear, nose and throat, cardiology and ultrasound departments of UK hospitals. The NHS accounts for a quarter o