RE: Shorter term thoughts and musings on price3 Jan 2022 10:55
Looking at comparisons between 20/21 and what 21/22 may bring from a profit perspective. Taking 20/21 first Q1 17,972 ounces and $28.8m profit, Q2 18,363 ounces and $29.1m profit, Q3 17,420 ounces and $58.7m profit and Q4 16,289 ounces and $28.7m profit. So, 70k ounces for the full year gave $145m in profit.
Q3 clearly benefitted from the tick-up in the basket price.
Management stated when announcing Q1 results for 21/22 that they were confident that 70k ounces would still be met for this f/y. In Q1 15,771 ounces and $13.6m profit. For Q2 the question is what will production be and will the basket price be better or worse than Q1?
Clearly for Q3 I would not expect the basket price to be anywhere near last years which makes H2 challenging.
Market expectations are looking for around a 20% dip overall in full year profits which means a target of $115m for the full year and with Q1 only contributing $13.6m then the next 3 quarters need to be very good if market expectations are to be met.
Cash position at end of Q1 was very good and basket prices should improve into H2 but still a big challenge IMHO to get anywhere near market expectations which seems reflective of the current SP.
GLA