Profit Forecast +Two large trades?3 Mar 2018 13:50
In answer to your question Howard 05 I have tried to summarise the potential trading profile for Amer but first, what were those large trades highlighted above 1.5m & 2.75m?? RNS next week?? Up or down? Anyway for what its worth, H2 Forecast IMO DYOR � Lifted of the RNS�s - Total Prod�n 949.7k barrels at an estimated Net Brent (�ve $4 discount) $53 average realised price generates approx. $50m sales H2 2017, allowing for $17 opex and costs of transport for Mariposa output, Gross Margin could be $24m or 49% after an increased depreciation charge of $9m (up from $7.8m to include H1 Capex $20m). Assume overheads of $7m, no finance charges for the terminated RBL facility � but allow $1m for the odd write off, gives $16m, which should give a full year of $14m before any minor tax issues due to tax losses carried forward. Going forward at Net Brent above $61 our sales Q1 should be circa $37m, H1 2018 +$80m and cash at the year- end 2017 estimate should be +$32m and at Q1 over $50m allowing $6m for capex. At Feb 18 output levels 6.75k and Net Brent $61 ish Amer should be making $1.25m Net profit before tax per week, more like $200k per day, after Mariposa gets sorted & POO remains stable in the mid $60�s range. HNY. Based upon 7kbopd Amer should make $30m Net profit H1 which would give an EPS 2.2p, annualised 4.5p and an SP of 48p on a multiple of 12, sell CPO 5 after Indico and 2018 they could make over $100m Net profit, the biggest problem would be Tax.
Going forward, If they sort the storage systems out then there is a permanent partial buffer for social unrest, even more so when they produce in Ecuador. Since I made this post we�ve made a further $8k FFS and nutters want to short this � that�s a joke-ish. I�m not aware I�ve ever witnessed this before, where the BOD have so many options to increase the SP and are holding back on ALL the plays, at 16p, that can be a very good place to be, for when that stance changes this will be well worth the wait. I do apologise for banging on. Last post � out with sledge. That's my other half.