Member Info for BaysilHope

Sorry Ferm, basically, the MM's know our SP behaviour - we don't buy in to a Cheap SP fear, they have the dog hand of a known willing seller, there is always a overhang of Share Stock with the MM's and it's sold on every rally. The point I make is, we are judged on Old sub 7k output but more importantly POO will fly, there is so much political unrest, , but we all need OIL FFS - We are in a great place, Tail and dog comes to mind, eg Us Build 5m this week Ignored, the squeeze is coming & POO will fly. So Amer time scales whilst frustrating, we get a better price later in the day. So not for the impatient. hNy

Good Point, the only way to fix a disaffected major shareholder off loading is to get a new one - our a couple of new ones, which takes time and trust and a BOD to change their PR stance and give them the privilege discount of fore mentioned person. The point I make is the MACRO economics will out weigh the Short term discomfort. POO will move up, the mega money will see to this, go beyond the short term horizon and we will be great. If you are a short termer , technical trader , so be it. I believe in structural fundamental business change - for longer term PI benefit. As I said earlier - CPO5 & Indico forward yield Is a MAJOR fillip - and will get its deserves, when the MM are in position, we go up they will drain every cheap share - don't give it away FUM . It is a frustrating game where Corporate fundamentals get shifted but eventually never ignored. I Hate 16p that's why I fight it, on the Macro news and Micro we should be +30p and sell CPO5 $+90m & a dividend PC anywhere - Them imagine 20k at +%90 Oil Which it will be when Venz/Iran and shale behave. HNY GLA If my guess is correct there will be RNX % holdings when they are ready. GN GLA

Late RNS or whats happening to CPO% FFS Joke. HNY

FFS Grow up - be real HNY What A shower of---------------------------- Lock Marco Economics unless you are desperate for short term cash. Supply will contract and limited shale and observatant Mega Oil Co's will wait for $80. 6 mths Max.

Quote News' Heavy Sweet Crude Is Heading For A Supply Crisis, By Matt Smith - Mar 15, 2018, 9:45 AM CDT 'IMO 2020' is going to usher in a mammoth sea change for the global petroleum market. On January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (hark, IMO) - the agency that regulates the global shipping market - will enforce a global sulfur cap of 0.5 percent on marine fuels. While this is this going to have the biggest impact on fuel oil and middle distillates, it is also going to influence the crude flows of heavy sweet barrels. In fact, it already is. Heavy sweet crude is going to be increasingly in demand in 2020, as refiners look to pivot towards producing low sulfur fuel oil. (See a particularly good rant here on the topic from @Big_Orrin on Twitter). Lest we forget, lighter crude yields less fuel oil, while sour crude raises the sulfur content. South America is the second largest source of heavy sweet crude, but is a considerable distance behind West Africa, only accounting for about 12 percent of global heavy sweet exports. These barrels come courtesy of Argentina and Brazil. As U.S. refiners increasingly blend domestic light crude with heavier barrels to achieve a preferred crude slate, China is firmly focused on pulling in as much heavy sweet crude as possible - accounting for nearly a third of all global receipts. HNy I'm tired of reading the Shorts on this GLA We heavy heavy and we can blend it as sweet as you want from 2 Countries.

Just badly edited Previous other people forget when smashing the SP' Quote, PUT-8 (South) �N Sand Play 2% X Factor & Put 7 Next door which needs an export route. Programme�N Sand Anomaly Well N Sand Putumayo Fairway � Petronova & PetroAmerica merger 15 June 15 pres, slide 7, shows range Put 7 � Sur Oriente, Put 8 to Put 9 & 12. The Cohembi pool lies within the Suroriente block located in the Putumayo basin of Colombia, directly north of the border with Ecuador. Numerous development wells have been drilled and the field is currently estimated to have greater than 100 million barrels of discovered oil initially in place. Extending this new understanding of the reservoir distribution of the Villeta N sand to the regional database of wells and seismic in the Putumayo basin strongly suggests that the Cohembi pool could be the foundation of a prolific new play trend in Southern Colombia. The Cohemb� field is the block's most productive, with an output of 11,813b/d in March 2014, from the Villeta N sands. Putumayo N sand risks and rewards.....quick assessment Rewards cheap to drill, seems to be a regional play, lots of high quality seismic and well control (logs etc) quick pay out wells, prolific producers, Risks no truly "large" N sand oil fields to date have been discovered / produced, sand issues in some of the wells....lots of "bugs" to work out, * possibility of a high degree of regional variability.....thus the need to drill a lot of exploration wells....not development, likely need to see a series of cluster fields to make the economics "highly" attractive According to Gran Tierra, June 16 �The N sand does have very large oil reserve potential Oops. 100 mmbo in 3P reserves at two N sand oil fields. 　  Vetra Energia is a private Colombian based E&P with a sole focus on Colombia. In July 2013, Vetra Energia was acquired by a consortium led by ACON Investments and Capital International. Vetra Holdings SARL was incorporated for the acquisition of Vetra Energia and is owned by the consortium members. Based on the company�s filings, the acquisition consideration is estimated to be c.USD440mm. In 2013, Vetra produced 5.6mmbbl or 15.4mbbl/d. Putumayo N sand risks and rewards.....quick assessment Rewards: * cheap to drill * seems to be a regional play * lots of high quality seismic and well control (logs etc) * quick pay out wells prolific producers. * wells tend to be typical of the Llanos Basin.....small producers in terms of reserve size * sand issues in some of the wells....lots of "bugs" to work out * possibility of a high degree of regional variability.....thus the need to drill a lot of exploration wells....not development * likely need to see a series of cluster fields to make the economics "highly" attractive . The N sand does have very large oil reserve pot

Quote Platts - Snipoed and badly edited but Who gives on the Conclusion, 'US foreign policy turn could take 1.4 million b/d off global oil market: analysts Washington Declines in Iranian and Venezuelan output due to sanctions could obviate the need for the rest of the OPEC/non-OPEC coalition to continue with their cuts. OPEC next meets June 22 in Vienna. OPEC as a whole produced 32.39 million b/d in February, according to the Platts OPEC survey, 340,000 b/d below its ceiling of about 32.73 million b/d, when every country's quota under its production cut agreement is added up. Venezuela oil output is in a "death spiral," which could be worsened by additional US sanctions, he said. Without new sanctions, Monaldi expects Venezuelan production to drop by 300,000 to 350,000 b/d by the end of 2018, but if oil-sector sanctions are imposed, the decline could be as much as 400,000 b/d by the end of the year, he said. With additional US sanctions, Platts Analytics assumes Venezuelan output to decline roughly 360,000 b/d from 2017 to 2018. DEAL Iran plans to pressure OPEC to allow it to boost production by 100,000 b/d and begin negotiating an end to an ongoing production cut agreement, told the Wall Street . Iran produced 3.83 million b/d in February, just above its quota of 3.80 million b/d, according to the latest Platts survey. That is up from 2.91 million b/d in January 2016, when the Iran nuclear deal went into effect. The prospect of reimposed sanctions on Iran, however, would make boosting outlook unlikely. The nuclear deal suspended US and European sanctions that severely restricted Iranian oil exports, in exchange for concessions on Iran's nuclear program. Several Asian refiners that typically buy Iranian oil have told Platts they are seeking extra force majeure clauses in term contracts with National Iranian Oil Company or risk discounts, with the uncertain prospects of renewed sanctions. Paul Sheldon, associate director, S&P Global Platts Analytics' PIRA Energy Analytics, said Wednesday that the impact of any change to the Iran deal may be delayed until late this year or early next year as international buyers could be given time to adjust. In addition, it remains unclear how many countries outside the US would comply with the decision to re-impose sanctions, he said. "You'd probably see some reductions from allies like South Korea and Japan, but you wouldn't see full compliance," Sheldon said. May 12 is the next deadline for the US to waive oil-related sanctions on Tehran as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Trump has said he would refuse to authorize that waiver again if the US Congress and European partners do not "fix" terms of the nuclear agreement. Platts Analytics forecasts Iranian oil output to grow by 120,000 b/d in 2018 and 100,000 in 2019. This growth would be unlikely if the US attempts to re-impose sanctions. Amer? Short term SP? News? Me? I'm the Earl of Whitby - Paul White

I don't think the short term 3 - 8 days of shorting will affect matters Bakoven, the key here is Oil didn't collapse it may fall again despite a huge Build & EIA on shale, IMHO we are seeing another correction soon, starting the the Big V Embargo Helps POO and weak US green back, I'd close now sweet pea - Rex is key. Amer with $65 net back at +$80m& for CPO 5 Values +$80m - did you get enough at 16p. 2 weeks of crap max. No news Tmz - I got more funds coming in. HNY And why drill N sands when you can't truck it nutter it's heavy Oil 20 API and no civil works to manage it. - & need to blend commercially for resale . POO going one way - clear out son, don't short now. IMO Notice how th eSP held and consistent 16p buying. Say no more.

Writing a business plan you need to square the circle, the point I was trying to Elude to on a Micro scale is mirrored in Trumps games, if he lifts Aramco IPo value we gain at $80 oil which is more likely than $50 POO. Therefore the forward curve based on $80, less the discount for a minority stake - we own 30% of CPO5 gives a whack, sell at 10% discount for cash and AMER 2018 are record profits and we are at 15.7p. Games my dear Holmes not fundamentals, we'll catch the blinders on the turn. HNY

Sorry to all that add immediate US Venz sanctions that Rex was opposed to - that's $5 POO. HNY.GN

See previous posts - this will not make sense other wise - and the Market gets 2 months Notice - On the Rex sacking guess - If it was a point of principle we wold have a build up and timing before the Iran deadline last minute job. Doing it now keeps the US dollar low and gives the market 2 months to get ready and 2 months to clarify the trade war/ swap for Iran. Europe in /Russia happy $80 with Iran and hold output - also with it China as long as the global OK, US Dow happy if Interest rates hold and less need to issue Treasuries to fund the deficit. Win WIn Win - You can understand the Bluster distraction techniques - OK until you hit a REAL Issue. GLA Had to get it out. Sorry.

Last point - the Tarriff thing so Bullish with Trump but is this a means to an end to get concessions other than straight trade When Reuters immediately dampen expectation = This has caught the MMM's off guard - time to build a new position - i.e Iran. Quote. LONDON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump�s decision to replace his secretary of state with a more hawkish figure should have been bullish for oil prices since it increases the probability the nuclear deal with Iran will be abandoned in May. Failure to recertify the deal could lead to the re-imposition of secondary sanctions and pressure from the United States on other countries to reduce their purchases of Iranian crude again. But the decision to replace the secretary of state barely registered on the spot price of Brent crude and the six-month calendar spread continued to soften, suggesting that traders see little impact for the moment. In theory, failure to recertify could remove hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude from the market and cause a significant tightening of the supply-demand balance. For the time being, however, the Trump administration�s increasingly hawkish position on Iran has not been enough to offset the impact of increasing supply from shale. IRAN DEAL Crude traders may be under-estimating the president�s determination to end what he has termed a �terrible� deal and ratchet up the pressure on Iran. But the president and his new secretary of state, assuming the nominee is confirmed by the U.S. Senate, will still face the same diplomatic constraints in ending the deal and renewing the boycott of Iranian oil. European countries, including Britain, France and Germany, are no more eager than before to abandon the nuclear deal or re-impose broad economic sanctions. Russia is also unlikely to cooperate since relations and cooperation with the United States are at the lowest ebb since the end of the Cold War. And the United States has embarked on a trade war with China, which is further complicating a relationship already beset by multiple other disputes. In the circumstances, traders may have concluded even a failure to recertify the deal will not lead to the removal of a significant amount of crude from the market. . End Rubbish, to avoid a trade tariff war Trump is bullying the pack - even the Russian comment above cogones. In answer to my last point - IMHO DYOR Only Guessing - Rex has gone to protect Exxon when the Iran happens, it could look like Rex is gifting a Benefit for his former employer when Oil goes to +$80. Trump is Nuts - but he is a business man with clever advisors. Total guess he could be doing Rex a big favour disconnecting the potential deal now. Two things +$250bn inflow keeps US interest rates down and relaxation of trade wars - helps global economy stay on track, China happy. Interesting time. GLA

At $65 PoO and forward curve - Aramco say worth $500bn, at $80 and new forward curve -$750bn to $1T , two things req'd to get $80 Oil and keep it there and rise 3-5 years , take 2m barrels off Irans quota and tell the banks to limit Shale lending. Both of which the President can achieve under the cover of darkness. US get in return the IPO, huge capital inflows to help balance the deficit, huge volume shot in the arm to the all banks and financials, hence they play ball with Shale and a trade agreement with KSA worth say 150bn over 3-5 years to redevelop KSA and develop a new industry where they make their own weapons and a few Yemenese raids will go unnoticed. US investment in KSA in a co-ordinated manner help soak up KSA youth unemployment. Trump friends with Valid so he doesn't mind an assist - Makes sense and follow the money. This is all about greed is good. Must be in Oil for the next couple of years. Only an idea, guess work, DYOR , but Tillerson's loss - I just don't get! GNA Going to watch footie.

Saudi's are looking at floatation options, US could clear the way to sanction IRAN then that's +$80 POo -2mBOPd , Mid May & could guarantee US a big slice of the Aramco pie & Float, Russia nor Iran won't mind nor US Shale as +$15 increase - Iran and all can live with the volume cut. Hopefully US Shale have grown up a tad - so If the Tillerson sacking means a tougher stance on Iran - then You shorters Baby make plans. IMO in at 16p I'll be sick with any more SP - the kids would quit school. HNY Dynamics are a changing quickly. This could all be a big game and Trump- NOT the fool, Tillerson the fall guy to restrict Iran at the Saudi behest - no doubt and the big man paid a big price for Oil & His beloved Exxon. HNy & US get the IPO and other export related contracts for SA diversification.

Quote'Following from hedgeye.com President Trump said Tuesday morning that he and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson disagreed on policy issues and singled out the Iran nuclear deal as the key example. �We got along actually quite well but we disagreed on things. When you look at the Iran deal: I think it�s terrible; I guess he thinks it was ok. I wanted to break it or do something and he felt a little bit differently so we were not thinking the same,� Trump told reporters. Trump�s decision to replace Tillerson surely signals the end of the Iran nuclear deal. While a reluctant Trump issued another waiver of Iran oil sanctions in January, he warned that it was the last waiver unless the agreement is changed to address his concerns. Trump�s decision will set up a showdown at the next waiver deadline on May 12. Tillerson was pursuing a separate side agreement with the EU to address Iran�s ballistic missile program but there was little sign of progress and unlikely that Iran would agree. French President Emmanuel Macron will make a state visit to Washington in late April just in time to lobby Trump to renew the oil sanctions waiver and preserve the nuclear deal. In our view, it is unlikely that Congress or the Europeans will take any meaningful action to modify the agreement. As a result, there is significant risk of snap-back US oil sanctions on Iran on May 12, and the nuclear deal remains on life support. Re-imposing US oil sanctions on Iran would put as much as one million barrels a day of Iranian crude exports at risk of being removed from global markets. Such a move would inject significant geopolitical instability in oil markets and likely send oil prices higher. Trump�s new Secretary of State-nominee Mike Pompeo is aligned with Trump on the Iran policy. He had been a leading opponent of the Iran nuclear deal when he was a Member of Congress.

Tillerson has more talent than Donald Trumps PR by a multitude, you keep sacking talented people, it's a sign of gross miss amangement at BOD level. Quote' US dollar weakens in biggest financial market reaction to Tillerson's ouster � The United States Dollar Index fell immediately after President Donald Trump's decision to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was announced. � Investors may be concerned the administration will institute more protectionist policies, hurting the U.S. dollar's value. � President Donald Trump's decision to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with CIA Director Mike Pompeo is moving financial markets, with the biggest reverberation in the currency markets. � The United States Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of other currencies, fell as much as 0.24 percent immediately after the report. It last traded down 0.18 percent at 89.74. To run Exxon is no mean achievement and you get Mammy's boy blocking it. I think they are sending DT over to North Korea as a gift hostage with no ransom. What a dohtard whatever. I know - its weaken the dollar but by how much? Weaker dollar helps POO and makes imports more expensive - curb Trade Deficit. Get it But Rex is a class management Asset with massive clout in the Middle East and Russia. Jealous IMO he is the TRump man GLA Last Post look for API Oil report.

Yes we can all look back a tad. It is worth noting - that on a massive trend correction had we had enough at 16p? Once the business plan gets into real action, the simple oil metrics & economics will have their own momentum. Same as in construction, stop - start with planning and logistics. - I don't think we are far away from a raft of good news. Last year in March & April 17 with PLat 22 & CPO 5 AMER issued +16 RNS news releases and we went to 26p. At 15.58p which was cheeky when some persons bought +2.7m @ 16 is an excuse to trigger stop losses. I think we have till end of March II's have had their opportunity to fill their boots, our seller happy with 16p - therefore IMHO no point going to 12p and they MM's won't have enough stock to keep pace with demand. News soon - for the patient. GLA What I'm pleased with the news to come is transformational, not cleaning a pipe in PLat 27 FFS. That's why the delay, and Annual results just over 3 weeks away and these guys after their TV Core Finance don't want to look Chumps - This time around. HNY GLA Can someone tell me what Twitter is, is it related to 'Ticks'.

Great post on PMO LASE from Auson- Russia is a garage economy ythey share a similar fate as Suadi diversify or be taken over - Read the quote- Dr Mamdouh G Salameh International Oil Economist Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London The OPEC/non-OPEC production cut agreement is here to stay long beyond 2018 but in a format which reflects changing market conditions such as a fully re-balanced oil market and rising oil prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the architects of the agreement, not only want to extend their cooperation well beyond 2018 but they also want to enshrine their cooperation in a permanent format which will enable them to respond quickly in the future to tightening oil market or to a build in global oil inventories. The Iranian oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, has a tendency to utter some opinions just to tell the world that he has some influence in OPEC when in fact it is Saudi Arabia that pulls the strings inside OPEC. The Iranian oil minister is wrong to suggest a price of $60 a barrel. Iran and other OPEC members need an oil price far above $100 to balance their budgets. He is also wrong in thinking that a price of $60 will deter US shale oil producers from continuing to produce. He should understand that US shale oil producers are very deep in debts to the tune of far more than $200 bn. They have to continue production irrespective of the oil price so as to be able to pay old debts and get new loans. They are robbing Peter to pay Paul. Without this they go bankrupt. Saudi Arabia�s oil price of $70 is only a starting point. They need a minimum price of $70 or even higher for a successful IPO of Saudi Aramco though I have been the only oil expert in the world suggesting for quite a while that Saudi Arabia is going to withdraw the IPO altogether. A fair oil price, in my opinion, is $100-$130/barrel. Such a price enables oil producers to invest in oil exploration and capacity expansion so as to be able to meet rising global oil demand in coming years, enhances global investments and gives incentives to the global oil industry to invest in new projects. In so doing, they stimulate growth in the global economy. The continued hype about US oil production is being now extended to US oil exports. How could US oil exports to Asia be displacing OPEC�s when total US exports worldwide average 1.5 million barrels a day (mbd) of which only 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) go to China. This compares with 75% or 16.5 mbd of OPEC exports that go to Asia. US shale expectations are full of - and when the earthquake count starts to rise look out. Russia needs high Oil to diversify, so The Kingdom. Itf they co-operate continues OPOO will only go one way medium term. HNY GLA

DOH! I make the point as far as the Aramco IPO - run with the curve and get the Shale gearing down, GLA Last post.

The US rig count Friday was a damp squib and the CERA meeting with OPEC & US Shale seemed quiet, could Shale be using it's sense and employing Capex discipline and help Crude rise?? It must be careful to avoid US laws. Quote - U.S. shale and OPEC share steak in uneasy truce at Houston dinner. They should have had a lot to discuss amid the fervor of CERAWeek, the most notable U.S. energy event of the year. But what could have been two of the biggest topics of conversation - oil prices and OPEC output levels - were not in the cards, as such a broad conversation would run afoul of U.S. antitrust rules against price-fixing. �It was quite a congenial group of people. We had a really wonderful conversation,� said Tim Dove, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD.N). He noted that Mohammed Barkindo, OPEC secretary general, gave a speech, and �his main message was that they believe very strongly that demand is going to be significant moving forward in terms of growth.� Just a year-and-a-half ago, such a gathering would have been difficult. The two sides were involved in a price war that left many shale firms bankrupt. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped all-out from 2014, pushing down the oil price in a campaign for market share aimed at pushing the shale industry out of business. The price war sparked an industry recession, and oil prices CLc1 LCOc1 plunged to a low of $27 a barrel. But shale cut costs and survived, and eventually the low price was too much for OPEC members to bear. OPEC cut output in 2017, effectively making way for shale. U.S. firms cannot engage in agreements to control supply or push up prices due to anti-trust laws in the United States. But shale firms are enjoying the benefits of OPEC members doing what they cannot, driving U.S. production to a record in late 2017 at more than 10 million barrels a day. Occasionally, OPEC ministers show signs of their frustration. Nigerian Oil Minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu told Reuters on Monday that �some of the same companies that are working in shale are the same companies working in OPEC,� and that they should �take some responsibilities in terms of stability of oil prices.� �The important thing is to know how much they (shale) are investing and their projections because usually they have good statistics,� he said. �What we are doing is avoiding volatility.� But ConocoPhillips (COP.N) CEO Ryan Lance, speaking Tuesday at the conference, said �We�ve just decided to embrace volatility. The growth in the U.S. is coming. It�ll probably consume most of the incremental demand. So OPEC is needed to show restraint in order to continue to balance that market.� GLA News soon on operations and a reserves report next 10 days. Then Annual results early April 18.