API Build POO down $72ish Shale?14 Aug 2018 23:29
Back from JDW's Steak night - great value - Abbott Ale cheap as Amer LTIP options, Back to read the API news, Quote 'Oil Slumps After API Reports Surprise Crude Build ' By Julianne Geiger - Aug 14, 2018, 3:50 PM CDT
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise crude oil inventory build of 3.66 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending August 11, compared to analyst expectations that this week would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.499 million barrels. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw of 6 million barrels of crude oil. The API reported a draw in gasoline inventories for week ending August 11 in the amount of 1.56 million barrels. Analysts predicted a smaller draw of 583,000 barrels.
Point here is Global Oil - Next 5 tears are a tipping point for 20+ year Oil projects - with current Tariffs and trade threats POO needs +$80-90 POO min for massive capex projects , which is not happening. Good thing with AMEr no doubt sheltered a tad from the trade winds. Anyway the strengthening US Dollar works against the POO so investment and commodities will be further subdued and Shale struggling with massive depletion rates , reducing sweat spots and hanging debt, rising interest rates and credit curbs, pipeline supply restrictions- WOW . All in this could lead to +$90 POO when Iran sanctions happen, as no one will invest serious returns with the POO Forward curve and current Trump mid election discounted voter related oil artificially discounted. Once re-elected game shooting season again . Trump gave Corp tax cuts - Trump gets cheap Oil for now, until outages and physical supply due to pipeline restrictions take a hold. SO buy in kids, get this sucker cheap, whilst you can. GLA GN Not long before the Oil supply famine starts, with its coats of many colours and Feck Trump then after the mid terms , as history tells us Japan 1940's kicked off due in part to the threat of Oil supply threat\ disruption. The pressure for higher Oil will be constant - China avoided oil Tariffs last round, they are wide open and India and when the games are played out, the POO value reality will be regained in say 3 months as Saudi won't pump +11m and risk OPEC destruction now it and Russia have a 30year term agreement and control world Oil, before renewables kick in, so massive investment needs massive POO now as in 10 years its too late to earn the IRR's FFS for a 4 or 8 year term joker. Oil Spike Next 12 months - has to happen. The tariffs will feck world demand but a massive drop in Oil output with Iran Venz perm reductions, will lead to a higher POO and will be inevitable, invest in Oil related companies no debt and protected from tariffs with strong internal demand as backup. AMERish.