Member Info for battle99

Drilling expected to begin in the 4th quarter this year. According to one of the docs on epa website.

Three weeks to go until the update. Time moves slowly when you are waiting for something. Hopefully it won't be pushed back again, to allow more data to be analysed, as Exxon are always drilling in the wider area.

Does that apply to both blocks of just canje? Ta

Hello harel, why do you think next year, have you seen something in the news? Ta

I agree with harel, in that he has been forced to look elsewhere due to the deadweight that is Tullow. The JHI transaction is a calculated risk worth taking and he has tried to spread risk with different locations. With regards to S Africa it seems a good punt, however, the nagging concern is why Azinam did not look to go forward with drilling the Gazania-1 well or just farm out a %, especially if the well is updip on a structure that was found to have oil previously in the 80's, as this well is potentially transformational.

The shares were additional to my existing holding. In one years time either the price will be many multiples of the current price, if they even just have one commercial oil find or my investment will be considerably worth less. I agree with the WTE update that hopefully with the drilling learning curve and multiple drills, eventually we will be successful, as we are relatively close to such a prolific area of oil discoveries. However, the risk is that for whatever reason the commercial oil is in a band that follows the coastline. Time will tell. Good luck all.

It was a buy, as I bought.

Thanks for posting. I hope someone at tullow reads the article.......

Basically the hope is that there is commercial oil, and lots of it, with it only being a matter of time before Exxon finds more. The fear is that the commercial oil is all in a band that doesn't run through our block. Time will time which one it is.

Although the fails to date are not great, I thought below helps to put in context our experience, and why Exxon with the data is pushing on.

Thought this was useful with regards to success rate for drilling, provided by a chap from Royal Holloway

Conventional oil&gas:
It will depend on how well known (in geological terms) is the area where you are drilling. A well known area is where you know what is the source rock that originated hydrocarbons, how it got mature (cooked) and generated those hydrocarbons, how those hydrocarbons migrated up to a reservoir, how this reservoir is distributed across the area and how it gets trapped in order to form an hydrocarbon accumulation. All this knowledge is collectively called “Petroleum System”.

An unknown area (“frontier” in the jargon), where you are missing some of the “Petroleum System” components, is considered risky, so a 10–20% rate of success in exploration wells (wildcats) is reasonable.

As you move to better known areas, where you know most of the Petroleum System, then you move up to 30–50% rate of success for exploration wells.

If you are dealing with a pretty well known area, where there are many producing oilfields, then you can get up to 80–90% chance of success for exploration and development wells.

As exploration technology, like 3D seismic, has improved, exploration has become more successsful. For example Exxon’s rate of success offshore Guyana is pretty high for a formerly “frontier” basin, with only a few dry holes out of more than 16 oil discovery wells. Pretty good track record.

Thanks. Surely one of those higher % locations will come in. I wonder what % the last three drills were.

Hello, where can I find the 2nd cpr, I've have had a look around but can't find. Thanks in advance.

Shame. Onto the next drill then. One hopes that there is commercial oil out their and it's only a matter of time.

Thanks for the info. Let's hope this is indicative of good news, or maybe just a delay in the drilling schedule as all that oil may have short circuited something..... Anyway hoping for the best, prepared for the worst.

....... Another day off the calendar. Come on exxon.

Let's hope a strike at canje does increase interest in our block, although next door they have already found 10 bn. barrels, that's what is depressing about tullows approach here, as if 10bn. doesn't motivate them what will.

Just people locking in some profit, I don't see this as people having insider knowledge. Just a few more days max. I agree with cozzy though, if they have many dusters, plans may change.

Hope the hangovers were not to extreme over the weekend....... And that all the drinkers have suitably recovered.

But he does say the farm out market has not improved much with rising oil prices. Bottom line is you can sell anything if the price is right to the buyer. If they don't have to drill then there is nocapital expenditure and they can wait years. Although frustrating to us....