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Thanks both. Great points and certainly plenty for us all to consider.
As before, I have no intention of selling my remaining stake. I have been a shareholder for several years so there is zero point in selling when we seem to be on the cusp of a deal. I wonder if ORM will agree terms along with some fundraising.
Legalwolf. It's encouraging that discussions with local contractors have taken place. I have had a dig around but wasn't able to find out the terms of the exclusivity period unfortunately.
Hi flundra
Many thanks. I'm definitely not misreading it. ORM has €37m worth of retained losses. I have triple checked!
The definition of retained losses on the balance sheet has nothing to do with a bad debt / liability. It is simply the total sum of ALL trading profit and losses which have been accrued by a company at that specific point in time. My apologies for the next part. Not trying to teach my grandma to suck eggs !! We invest in shares to get a return on our investment. Dividends, or the opportunity of futures dividends and of course capital appreciation. Dividends can only be paid out of retained profits. And generally share price rise at the prospect of future sustainability and growth . As we all know with ORM it has been the exact opposite. A steady and sometimes severe decline in its capital value and certainly no chance of receiving dividends for many years to come. Is their $800k investment really going to result in adding €37m to the profits to get us back to break even. I just can't see it unfortunately.
In my previous post I mentioned that it looked like ORM had lost c. 10m in 2019 but I couldn't find it. I have now so here goes!!
2019 Accounts:
"The Ormonde Group has reported a loss after tax for the year of €11.3 million compared with a loss of €1.65
million for 2018. Loss from continuing operations totaled €0.9 million (2018: €1.62 million), with a loss from
discontinued operations of €10.4 million (2018: €26k) which relates to the disposal of Ormonde’s interest in
the Mine."
Previous years accrued (retained) losses were €26m and so with 2019's loss at €11m we are now at €37m with maybe €5m in the bank.
In the event ORM manage to pull the deal off I will be selling very soon after. I just can't see them trading their way out with this level of losses off the back of an $800k investment. All IMHO obviously.
Hi Cekim / Flundra / Legalwolf. Many thanks for your replies. Always good to have a balanced view.
I looks like you are both in agreement so I must have read the situation wrong with regards to the deal. However, I am trying to put myself in the position of the licence holders. If I were them, would I really be wanting ORM shares instead of cash knowing that:
1. The company appears to be have a negative asset value. In other words ORM appears to be worthless because they have €37m in accumulated losses and only €5m in the bank.
2. Knowing that without the licences I'm trying to sell them, ORM will be back to square one and having to look for new opportunities before their cash runs out.
In my world, retained losses are never a good thing. Not in 25 years of me buying, building and selling businesses have I ever owned a business with a negative balance sheet. Our bank and our creditors would completely freak out!! Which is what I have done this afternoon having seen ORM's accounts
Let's assume I have got the wrong end of the stick with the deal itself. Could someone please check the accounts and tell me if I have got the financial position wrong too! Many thanks. :) x
Hi Cekim / Flundra / Legalwolf. Many thanks for your replies. Always good to have a balanced view.
I looks like you are both in agreement so I must have read the situation wrong with regards to the deal. However, I am trying to put myself in the position of the licence holders. If I were them, would I really be wanting ORM shares instead of cash knowing that:
1. The company appears to be have a negative asset value. In other words ORM appears to be worthless because they have €37m in accumulated losses and only €5m in the bank.
2. Knowing that without the licences I'm trying to sell them, ORM will be back to square one and having to look for new opportunities before their cash runs out.
In my world, retained losses are never a good thing. Not in 25 years of me buying, building and selling businesses have I ever owned a business with a negative balance sheet. Our bank and our creditors would completely freak out!! Which is what I have done this afternoon having seen ORM's accounts
Let's assume I have got the wrong end of the stick with the deal itself. Could someone please check the accounts and tell me if I have got the financial position wrong too! Many thanks. :) x
Hi Bearsandbulls. lol. I think it might be going down along with mine unfortunately! ORM do not appear to have ever made a trading profit. Granted, last years' accounts do show a profit but this is only due to a disposal. Nothing to do with mining something valuable and then selling it. So to answer my own question as at 30 June 2020, the Company held €5.6 million of cash (after the sale I think). Judging by historic burn rate our current cash position is likely to be c. €4.0m to €4.5m. On the face of it this looks fairly healthy. But unless I am hugely mistaken the balance sheet is showing retained (accumulated) losses of €37.2m. Yes. 37 million Euros!!! This is horrendous. No wonder the licence holder doesn't want shares!!
Guys. I'd be really pleased if someone else could take a look at the financials which you can download from ORM's website. I need a sanity check please!! Thanks in advance.
Out of interest, does anyone know how much cash do we have left? Is it still 6m? Also I wonder what ORM's monthly burn rate is!! Revenues v Overheads.
Hi Legalwolf. I don't not think the Board consulted with him first. My guess is when he (the large shareholder) found out about the licence holder wanting 100% cash he told them to poke it!! Maybe he was concerned about ORM's burn rate. It's all well and good owning 80% of 2 licences but what's the point if we run out of cash during the mining. That would be a disaster.
Thanks PAD004. Agreed. I really like the ORM board. Good conversation and plenty of amiable people on it. I have never understood these de-rampers. It is just bitterness!
Nothing pleases me more when investors get it right. I will be over the moon for you if this one comes off. I read earlier on another board that the guy's wife had bought shares for £5000 2 years ago, stuck the trade confirmation in a drawer along with some others and totally forgot about them. When he checked the value last week, the shares are now worth £300k. Hopefully one day this will happen to some of us!!
Apologies if my post below comes across as negative. It's not meant to be. It was me attempting to rationalise what we've been told. I still have 300k share which I won't be selling as there is no point when our cash = Market Cap (assuming it does still!!). So I ask myself should I buy more ORM? I don't think so in all honesty. Not until a deal is confirmed. I know the share price will go up when a deal is announced. However, I'd rather pay a premium for something already in the bag rather than taking a punt now, and then finding out that the bag is empty. I pride myself on being an investor, not a gambler.
I had a spare 15 mins this afternoon so I re-read the ORM RNS: 6171L written on 14 January 2021. Titled: 'Ormonde looks to acquire African high grade copper projects'
"The terms of the transaction are at a late stage of negotiation and remain subject to change."
So the terms (price, percentages) were still subject to negotiation so maybe the price was not fixed. If that's the case then ORM do not have the upperhand. They do have an exclusivity agreement but no mention if there is a timeline in place - which there will be if the licence holders have any sense.
"While the transaction is well advanced, there still can be no certainty that a deal will be concluded."
This is the "We told you so!!" element in the event the deal falls through. Just covering their backs.
"Ormonde will continue to keep the market appraised over the coming weeks as work continues towards concluding this transaction, as expeditiously and efficiently as possible."
Nearly 2 months down the line I'm not convinced they have fulfilled "keeping the market appraised" part.
dvharrison. Firstly congratulations!! Your wife has turned £5k into £300k. :)
Totally agree with Albert82. For what it's worth I think I'd sell £10k to £15k worth. You'll get your initial investment back (now you can't lose) plus you and your wife can have a nice spend up, basically a free holiday (as and when) or a chanel bag (it's her money after all!!) which is totally deserved. It will still leave you with a £285,000 free ride to the moon!!! Kind of a no brainer IMO!! Great story. Well done to you and your wife. :)
Hi all. Thought I'd change the subject matter for PAD's sake!!
Thanks JD and Legalwolf. Agreed on both fronts. More often than not it takes longer to get these deals over the line so I am not surprised. As I have said before, the lack of a shareholder update is disgraceful. Even if it's to say they are still negotiating (which is perfectly reasonable). I would not be surprised if licence holder has increased the price due to copper prices increasing c.25% since negotiations started last year. I would if I were them!!
Congratulations Chief. Woooo hoooo. It's time to pop that cork!!! I am still waiting for my shares with Barclays to be allocated! My friends who have accounts with HL and IG sold within the first two days of trading. They have since bought back at 10p-11p and are happy to sit tight. This has been one giant fk up by Barclays!! Not so 'Smart' after all !! :(
Hi Cekim. I agree. The longer this goes on, the more chance it will fall through - assuming it hasn't done so already. I fully understand that sometimes negotiations are sensitive (with confidentiality agreements signed) but there is no harm in putting out an RNS confirming that negotiations are still ongoing. To say nothing at all leads to uncertainty and with it, disgruntled shareholders.
@jdstandard. You wanted to just talk ORM. What is your take on this please?
My pleasure Gist.
Thanks. You too. :)
Morning Gist.
No problem at all. The stock is one that has been well featured in the crypto world. It's called Argo Blockchain (ARB). Please be aware that this stock is not for the faint hearted as the share price swings (up and down) are extremely severe. When the share price falls those who have done their DD do not sell, we top up. Please check out recent YouTube clips from Peter Wall the CEO. He posts regular video updates keeping shareholders in the loop. The share price closed at £2.35 to buy - down with every other crypto related stock on Friday. I suspect tomorrow it will open well above this as Bitcoin is spiking over the weekend. However, there are 4 or 5 very different 'projects' on the go. Falls in the past have been £1.40 to 60p and currently £3.40 to £2.35. Yep. It's a rollercoaster ride but for me one worth taking given what is on the horizon!! If you're interested, please scroll through the ARB chat forum for more info from Racing Cyclist, Coin Collector and a few others. I'd hate to put fellow investors into something that went wrong so please please do your own research before committing!!
That's a substantial holding PAD. :)
I have a similar value holding in another stock which I won't name unless you guys want me to. I know a lot of boards dislike cross peddling!!
The company I'm invested in has the polar opposite view with regards to communication with shareholders which is why I've backed it so heavily. We know exactly what's on the horizon.
The issue I've always had with ORM are the long spells of silence together with projects never fulfilling mining expectations (to date at least). I really hope they get this deal over the line quickly and the copper deposits exceed expectations. It's the least ORM shareholders deserve for their faith and patience. I still hold 300k shares BTW. Good luck to all. :)