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A mass manufacturing deal with Denora is definitely what AFC are working towards they’ve said so several times in announcements. What we are waiting for is a warranted product on offer to the many customers who are waiting for it. The ground work for sales has largely already been done with customers in strategic regions so my view is once AFC are confident enough to offer a warranty the order book will be rather full! Hopefully this first commercial sale will be the catalyst for more.
Hello SprogBarnes, im not sure it is correct that every buy must have an instantaneous sell and every sell an instantaneous buy so that the MM can report which side of the transaction they like and therefore change perceptions. I thought what actually happens is the MM maintains liquidity by guaranteeing that buys and sells can take place at anytime but not necessarily at the same time as each other. They only have to balance the books over a finite timescale rather than instantaneously finding buyers and sellers for every transaction. This is invisible to PIs though as they only need to give you the money for your shares when you come to sell. They have to be careful though as if they think they are going to get caught out they raise or lower the bid/sell price to make sure it triggers an appropriate response so you get the money for your shares when you want them as can buy when you want.
I think it will be an interesting rest of year, some very specific achievable objectives lined up from the new ‘play it straight’ AFC all of which should raise the SP. I’m not sure why the SP should be so low but it is a bargain entry price (therefore bad exit price) for any would be investor. If it is Linc selling then at least it will delay any fund raise as they wouldn’t agree to that as a major investor. Hopefully that means more good news first in the pipeline.
I think we might see some of the original target markets opening up now we have the first commercial order. The Australian deal was done on the back of an MOU, and AFC have several of those already in place in other markets. Getting the MOU in the Middle East was a great strategic move looking back, with the by product being water and an area that is likely blocked to any sales from Gencell. Covestro Germany is also promising. The strategy now makes sense and AB is a good salesman. Looking forward to more news on integration with hydrogen suppliers and think we might see further rises in SP as people cotton on. Would have been steeper rise if they had RNSd the news.
Great news today for all the faithful PIs who have stuck it out, and very happy to see light at the end of the tunnel. It wasn’t BS after all and they came good on their statement about much happening behind the scenes commercially. Securing the first contract is usually the hardest but once the precedence is set the world is literally AFCs oyster! I’m watching out for fulfilment of the rest of the AGM objectives this year now that faith is restored. Onwards and upwards!
I don’t post on this board very frequently but just want to say it’s gone down hill recently. Constant sniping at people, making fun of them, reminiscent of the levels of maturity you only get in a school yard. Echoes was one of the decent people, not surprising he has gone with all the thoughtless petty comments that have been made. To those concerned, if you are so convinced AFC is not worth investing in then why don’t you sell your shares and clear off from this board. I’d rather see you sell and miss out when the announcement comes than profit from this company having seen what sort of comments you post about other people. If you decide to stay then I suggest you be polite to other people on here.
That’s a very good point Heath23. Companies like De Nora do not do work for free for another company if there is no potential for future sales. This hidden fact speaks louder than the lack of news we currently have and is something concrete to go on amongst the speculation. I think we can hope in a brighter future from that.
Echoes, give them a chance, it’s not the end of the month yet. I would expect news within a couple of weeks of the month end, not the second the clock ticks past midnight on 30th June. I doubt the board in AFC are feeling quite so on edge as us lot as they know what’s happening.
Echoes, I think the share price hit rock bottom at 8p so is now on the up. Shares rarely drop too far below the foundation price set by the last placement and the wild fluctuations in SP on the basis of small trades tend to get tamed somewhat close to that foundation price. So the only thing that would cause it to drop lower would be a placement and for that the big investors have to agree to a dilution of their current holdings. Us PIs are just small fry. Therefore I think AFC are being very smart by keeping operating costs down and watching the cash doesn’t burn out too quickly and it was a good move on their part to get De Nora contribution for free. It is my view we will see a couple of good news announcements before the next placing to raise the SP, so now is a great time to buy for PIs.
Echoes, the share price won’t drop much below the foundation level that is in the interest of the big investors. We PIs are just small fry. A good guide is the last placement price, when it starts to go below that then the SP starts to stabilise and bump along at around that price plus or minus a limited percentage. I think we saw rock bottom at around 8p. The only thing that will cause it to go lower would be a fund raise which the big investors have to agree to as it involves diluting their holdings. Therefore I think AFC will be looking to release good news first before a placement and are intentionally running g light on operational costs to preserve the cash. It’s a smart move by them not to have to pay for anything De Nora are doing. My prediction is good news just around the corner, mid July latest - PIs should get onboard now as this train is about to leave!
Despite the current SP I still believe the long term prospects for the company are very good. When the previous finance director left he commented on a lot having been achieved commercially behind the scenes and I don’t think he would have done that if he left under a cloud. The low SP could reflect one of the major investors selling off because they are forced to for reasons mentioned by BumbleBee after attending the AGM. The MM has to always ensure it is possible for investors to buy or sell therefore they will hold a number of shares temporarily to ensure liquidity in the market, at least that is my understanding. They then set the price to enable them to offload them in periods of high demand. I expect they will start gathering up shares ready for good news later this year. On good news, when investors scramble to buy, the MM has to release shares to enable people to buy or put the price so high it encourages enough people to sell to meet the rising demand and puts enough people off buying at the higher price. What the MM cannot do is sell more shares to buyers than there are in the company. I think the ground is being set by the MM for a sudden flurry of buyers. If they can mop up shares at this price they can release them at a much higher price on good news and make a handsome profit for themselves. Therefore I’m holding on to my investment as I still believe the second half of 2018 will be the best we have seen for AFC. It would be foolish to offload at this price with commercialisation just around the corner. I haven’t waited this long to get rid of them now and the evidence shows the product works and there is a gap in the market for the product.
....taken a look back at the “Next Twelve Months” slide from the AGM presentation which sets objectives for the rest of 2018 until April next year. They look to me like very achievable ‘good news’ objectives that could appear in a run of good news. With the final payments from EU and tax reclaim I’m not so sure a fund raise is around the corner just yet as some have been suggesting. Many of the objectives set for this year are commercial agreements, and we are not talking abstract MOUs as in the early days, but more substantial ones with a defined commercial focus. These do not attract significant cost to make so the rate of cash burn is probably less this year. The objectives imply to me the real fund raise for proper commercialisation and gearing up for full scale production won’t come until 2019, so if there is one later this year it won’t be a massive dilution predicted by the doom mongers. Therefore I’m keeping my investment sound for this years good news and not selling at the current price which I think is potentially the lowest we will see and are on the cusp of a quite a few jumps on a succession of tangible good news announcements. I would buy in more at this point if I had the funds.
There is obviously a temptation for people who have made a heavy loss (investing at 80p and selling at 20p - although I don’t think it ever reached the 80p price) to then encourage others to make the same loss and therefore continue posting deramping comments once they are no longer invested. Human nature is to not want a share go up once you’re out. However, I would encourage to read all the major RNS produced this year and ask themselves if they expect some good news in 2018 before selling. Don’t sell on the basis of derampers who are no longer invested, look at the announcements and make your own decision. Everyone else is either guessing or has ‘other reasons’ for their comments
I agree with the last post by iWantthatone. We were forewarned about the change in comms so rather surprised at all the deramping talk. Nothing has really changed since the AGM and we were expecting no news until the end of June yet there is so much speculation of things going wrong. The difficulty with this share will be not selling too soon. Yes they made a mistake in the 2016 promises but I think they have learnt since then. Therefore I’m taking a bit more credence on the objectives for this year as being achievable. There are a lot of them to cram in for the next six months and I expect the vast majority to be met. Therefore the challenge will be don’t sell too soon. It’s a small volume share so the price varies wildly with a few trades, so it’s not such a good idea to read too much into it while the SP is low. That is just a reflection of supply and demand, which has a disproportionate affect on SP based on a few small volume trades. The plus side is that it doesn’t take much for it to go through the roof, as it did a few years ago from 8p to 58p in a couple of months.
This is more unnecessary scaremongering. 4x4 talks like he knows something about accounts saying it’s “never good when a company files late”. That’s made up bull***t. Just check back to 2016 and you will see AFC filed on 9th June (by the way May comes before June 4x4 so we are not there yet in 2018) and a month later the SP went from 9.5p to 27p (didn’t affect that one much did it!)Folks this is just more hot air coming from no knowledge, the very definition of scaremongering I believe.
I think it will go much higher, particularly as there is an expectation of a succession of good news announcements not just one. We have been told of several to come and quite a few of them do t really have much risk attached. The rise today is welcome, perhaps the sell offs and shorts are finished, and this is the beginning of a good finish to the year.
@ReoninV: what investment decision are you looking to be closer to making? Investing more? If so I would say this time is better than any with the current price quite low and the closest we have been to a breakthrough. The corollary is obviously definitely not the time to sell. I think this year has prospects for quite a few drops of good news in succession. Last year the news on stack cost reduction saw the price go from current levels to 18p in a week and if we get two or three good news announcements in succession which is a very real possibility it will go much higher.
Yes well said! Seems to have got out of hand, not to mention rather pointless. Reality is the most recent objectives set out have neither been missed nor met so nothing has changed to warrant a significant move in the SP. It therefore reflects the sentiments (and moans) of PIs and we all reap what is sown in that respect.