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It’s a good point about VLS, one management statement from them but no material improvement and the share price goes up 40%. I think news is coming on AFC and we can expect good days ahead. Last time they went quiet we found out that a lot had been happening behind the scenes, they had tested over 200 electrode pairs and the Southern announcement came out subsequently. When the last accountant left he said good progress was being made commercially behind the scenes. It’s worthwhile comparing AFC with VLS for a moment. There has been no bad news out of AFC this year unlike VLS which had a reactor leak causing the shutdown of its commercial reference plant earlier this year. AFC have a contract in the offing with Southern and making good progress partnered with De Nora who are no fools, whereas VLS commercial reference plant never achieved the target output and never made cash flow positive ie cost to run exceeds what you get from it ! not even taking into account cost to build. AFC reference plant actually is a net producer. So my point is if VLS with much worse prospects jumps 40% then AFC will do much better when next news comes, and it’s coming folks! I still maintain the SP is lower than it should be for a company with AFCs prospects and the only reason for that is the people who talk it down who are putting PIs off unnecessarily.
I think some people on here don’t understand that the share price for low volume trade shares such as this moves massively on a few trades, hence doom mongers reap what they sow. The MM sets the price to maintain liquidity so if doom mongers encourage people to dump shares and deter others from buying the MM puts the SP right down as he has no choice but to balance the books and find buyers. Some people think that when a company’s SP drops 5% it’s because 5% of the company’s value in shares has been sold but that is complete baloney and shows they don’t understand the market. The true value of a company is only apparent when there is a fund raise and you can work out what value that is from the placing value. Existing major shareholders have to agree to the placing price as they are agreeing to their holdings being diluted. I think the company is worth more than the current SP suggests so a placing could be at a reasonable price when it comes and not be a big issue. 3 months after the last placing the SP rocketed well above the pre-placement price but doom mongers conveniently forget that. I know I’m going on about it but I think quite a few have lost perspective on this one and need to take a step back, look at this years objectives, look at this years announcements and ask themselves why they are so panicked by things. AFC said they weren’t going to issue RNS every other week but it’s only been just over 2 months since the last positive news flow so what’s all the fuss about? I think we are close to good news
AFC have done what they said they were going to do yet posters on this board are irate about it. They didn’t promise news every week, we had that in previous years and people moaned about the hype. Now they have cut out the hype the same people moan about the lack of news. Reading the news they have issued this year they are on track. We’ve gone from jubilation after the Southern announcement, which was followed by more positive news and everyone complains about AB and JR. They are not obliged to lift the share price and why should they when it is just a reflection of the derampers and moaners. The explanation for it being so low is all the negative talk. Take a look at it from a PIs perspective who is looking for a company to invest in. PIs will take one look at the comments of idiots on this board and not touch it with a barge pole. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy folks, what you publish on here gets read and puts PIs off unnecessarily, and encourages others to sell. It only takes one PI to sell £10k on a low volume share and it drops 5%. Go figure folks it’s not difficult to work it out. The irony is AFC are actually on track doing what they said they would and not failed to meet an objective yet this year, yet the doom mongers have their way posting vitriolic messages about AB and JR. If you’re not happy sell up and clear off, but don’t drag everyone else down with doom mongering
@13thmonkey: totally agree with that sentiment. We are still getting used to the new realistic AFC only making significant announcements but I reckon we’ve got one coming up in the next two weeks. I have more faith in them fulfilling what they state now than in previous years so when they say news this October and setup of the Southern Oil system H1 next year I believe it will happen and am sticking through the pain to reach success, this one will sky rocket (pretty much every AIM company does that achieves that stage). We’ve had to put up with a lot of pain on this one exacerbated by news blackouts but there is no gain without pain if you want something substantial. Not for the faint hearted but rewards are better in the end. It’s an awesome entry point for anyone with the spare funds right now.
So how will it work for us PIs who have shareholdings in a company currently valued at £18M when Velocys are running a competition to bring onboard a strategic investor to invest £60M? Presumably the strategic investor will want shares and won’t pay out £60M for nothing. Will it be a big dilution or not? My holding bought at 33p ended up worthless after the big January dilution, and that was only for a smaller fundraise. Dread to think where this is going for £60M fundraise!
The Q&A on the company’s website states: the root cause of a poorly designed ancillary coolant system. What is not clear is whether the leak was in the cooling system itself (in which case why not fix it) or caused an irreparable leak in the FT reactor (more difficult to repair). Reactors cost money and if the plant never reached cash flow positive then not much point paying out for a new reactor to be manufactured. When cooling systems fail it normally means a pressure build up and hence leaking or damage to the vessel. I hope the cooling system was the cause and not tarring of the small channels in the reactor which would impede the flow. This latter problem dogged large scale reactors but hopefully is not a problem for this. It would be good to know what damage was done and why they can’t repair it as we are left guessing as to why not fix the leak. I don’t understand why it was so difficult to be cash flow positive for this plant and what will be so different next time. Anyone know the answer?
Does anyone know why the leak at Oklahoma is such a big deal? How difficult can it be to fix a leak once the source is identified? It doesn’t make sense why you would pull the plug on a showcase commercial reference plant that you have invested millions in over a leak. There is something they are not telling us. I’ve lost a lot investing in this share and we need answers.
It’s an interesting question about whether the goal posts are moving and whether AFC have to achieve more than they did a year ago to be commercially attractive, but I think we will see a balance coming into subsidies and government incentives which will make AFC very attractive indeed. Clean energy is clean whatever the source, and every form should be able to receive the same subsidies for fair competition. Wind and solar are mainly competitive due to heavy subsidies and incemtives. Having links to government and MPs is good for AFC and I think it’s an area AFC are working on. Joining the Hydrogen Council is a good move too. I would like to see the AFC website updated with a clear publication of their latest strategy for investors. I think there are a lot of important pieces in place now and a revamp of the marketing to explain them would do wonders for the share price.
@4444: sell them then if you think they will go down, but we don’t really want to hear any more unfounded doom stories from you. You came up with a load of b******t about the end of year accounts being late and what such a bad thing that was earlier this year, only proven very wrong as it was shortly followed by the Southern Electric announcement and AFC saying they were extremely busy, yet you keep coming up with more unfounded scaremongering. The only reason people aren’t buying is all the b******t put out by people like you. Personally I’m happy to hold on for the breakthrough.
On a positive note, if AFC have actually said on the phone to a couple of people who post on this board that the SP ought to be higher considering where the company is at, and that they don’t know the reason it is low, then it means the offload is over (if there ever was an alliance offload) otherwise they would have mentioned. I don’t consider 100,000 shares as regards art of a strategic offload by a big investor, let’s face it, it’s only £8k worth. It’s nothing in reality and probably just a PI reacting to scare stories about placements. I think people bailing out now will come to regret come September October time.
Placings happen with companies irrespective of the SP at the time and the Share Price leading up to a placing isn’t necessarily an indicator there will be one. I’ve seen some companies deliver good news one week driving it high and then placings the next week driving it back down, and vice versa. Also I think that if the two people who posted on here have actually phoned AFC and were told what they said they were told, then a placing in the near future is unlikely and it is likely good news will come first in Sep/Oct. I dont think AFC actually need the cash until next year anyway. I’m not surprised the SP is where it is though and think the most likely cause is the doom mongers who keep resurfacing on here. I’ve not known a board this bad for doom mongers. With low volume shares it only takes a small amount of trades to make big changes to the SP so the effect of doom mongers is magnified. When placements are made the SP is driven by what big investors think it’s worth, but between placements the SP is driven by PIs perceptions. As most PIs read boards like this before buying, can you blame them for not buying with all the unfounded scare stories going on? You reap what you sow but the shame is this company is now undervalued as a result.
I don’t understand the logic some people have with shares. If you believe a share will go down you should sell them before it does and if you believe a share will go up then hold on to them. Surely that applies whether the price is high or low irrespective of what you bought them at? Therefore I don’t understand why people bleat on about it all the time and get really upset while still holding to their shares as their actions aren’t lining up with their words. Can I suggest if you think they will go down then sell them before they do and stop bleating on about. People are getting frustrated with the bleating, not with their shareholding, as we still believe AFC will meet their objectives this year.
I was also thinking October for next substantial news. The timescales seem about right on several of the work strands so wouldn’t be surprised if it is an RNS that covers multiple topics of good news. If it is the long awaited longevity warranty and news on the commercial front combined the SP will skyrocket.
BumbleB I was meaning AFC getting into backup power rather than the other way around. For longevity I’m not sure it is good to compare GenCell with AFC because as far as we know the electrode pairings are likely to be completely different. AFC mentioned De Nora had trialled over 200 pairings and it is where I think AFC have the advantage. The chances of them having the same pairings is minimal therefore longevity could be completely different.
My understanding is that backup power (which is a big market) is ‘as well as’ rather than ‘instead of’ continuous power applications. De Nora and AFC are optimistic about achieving the longevity needed. I reckon we will see some good news come out soon as there is a lot stacking up in terms of targets they said are achievable by the end of the year, and I’m still convinced this is the new realistic AFC with genuine targets.
The interim statement published on 16 July for 2018 looks incredibly promising for the next six months. The cash burn was much lower than expected and at a rate that the last fundraise will last quite a while longer at this rate. So I really can’t understsnd why this isn’t moving as it looks more positive than it’s been for a very long time. I think it must be down to how they are publishing the good news- something they used to be good at but have now become lack lustre at it. Just hoping they will realise that and buck up with their marketing and promotions.
My personal view is the true underlying value of a company is best seen from looking at the last placement price, which for AFC was 10p. Irrespective of what the SP is at the time of the announcement, the underlying value is the placement price. Then following the announcement of a placement the SP tends move towards the stated placement price, then after the placement has been made it bounces back again. So last year the announcement was made when the SP was 16p that a placement was going to happen at 10p, then the SP dropped to 10p which was the placement price, then three months later was back at 18p. On that reasoning, even if there is a placement it won’t take long to bounce back so I’m not sure why everyone is so worried about it. Also with the last placement at 10p and the current SP at 8p it is currently undervalued so I doubt very much the large investors will agree to a fund raise just yet as they will not accept the dilution on an undervalued starting point. That’s why I think good news will come first.
@iWantThatOne. So just trying to understand what you were saying - are you thinking there will be or won’t be a fundraiser in the near future? If what you said is true and you topped up this morning then presumably you are erring on the side of not yet otherwise it would have been an incredibly dumb thing to do if you believe the opposite. I think there will be more good news first on the technology front.
Does anyone know if they have resolved the low production issue at Oklahoma? They were aiming for 250bpd but got 180bpd.