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Hi all, happy to wait here for the inevitable big news to land .... could we expect to get an RNS like this one day soon, which will rocket our mcap: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/REDX/out-licensing-agreement-with-astrazeneca-83rmbnvr65u8t35.html
Gla
Bapuk
How much do ODX get percentage wise/ proportionately of the UK-RTC consortium test?
Thanks
Bapuk
Dear All
Sentiment is down with GDR at present, but things can flip in an instant ...looking at another stock with a similar market cap where share price has been battered to below their placing price for weeks (HEMO), with a single RNS today, their sp has leapt 46%.
With approvals/sales RNSes anticipated in the near term, and who knows other surprise RNSes/collaborations that GDR could spring on us at anytime, could easily imagine sentiment returning here and GDR sp going up 50%-100% in a single session, as our mcap is so low at present ...
Keep the faith
Bapuk
Dear all
Well, yesterday was depressing for both share price and shareholders alike. However, i wonder if in a month’s time both will be in considerably greater shape, if one compares the trajectory of NCYT from around a similar stage in its journey. I know it may not be a valid comparison in that NCYT had first mover advantage back in February but here goes:
On 28 Feb, NCYT’s RNS mentions sales of approx £1 mil for its CE-marked test, share price was 143p then = £100 mil mcap approximately.
By 12 March (less than 2 weeks later), sales were £2 mil but by 30 March (1 month post 28 Feb RNS) sales were £18 mil, with FDA, Indian approval etc in place and share price of 200p-300p by early April (approx £150-200mil mcap).
So if GDRs mcap currently is £43 mil with £1 mil in sales in the pipeline (not a completed deal as such), but with regulatory approvals in place within the next 4 weeks, one could anticipate sales of at least half what NCYT achieved (since GDR do not have first mover advantage but do have a much more robust test offering to compensate with/capture market share) eg sales of £9 mil....surely that would justify a mcap for GDR of at least £100 mil /share price at least double the current sp.... taking into account that GDR does have the other revenue streams too (AIHL, Hep C, US DoD contract etc).
Hope this fag packet extrapolation/comparison makes some sense, late night Saturday ramblings may not always do so!
IMHO
Bapuk
Slow Sunday musings...
I’m amazed at how low GDR’s mcap still is, given all the already announced RNS info and expected near term news expected in days, not weeks. GDR’s Cytiva collaboration and its unique high fidelity Covid 19 antigen test, now CE-marked and anticipated sales should surely justify mcap multiples from here? Yes there are other companies with their own USP Covid-19 test kits but their mcaps are way higher already £200-300m (referring to a couple of other companies on AIM that I and I’m sure some of you are also invested in, so as not to have eggs all in 1 basket!)
Is it just the placing overhanging/forward selling by institutions involved in the placing that’s held back AVCT’s sp, and the volatile sp swinging on 5 May RNS day and uncertainty of the broker option entitlement/allocations issues , that’s held sp back?
In which case, sp should catapult forwards from this week onwards...
Imho
Bapuk
In a matter of days imho, debating the relative merits of today’s distribution agreement (versus what anyone else thinks should/could/ought to have been done) will be eclipsed by the actual product launch rns,
and SP will react accordingly then,
Gla
Bapuk
Dear Champion WH
I think the so-called reinfections were false positive (inaccurate) test results in certain patients, who then actually later did contract covid and test positive, seemingly a second time: at least that’s what I understood from the South Korean government statement a few days ago.
But only strengthens the point that the world needs as close to 100% accurate (sensitive and specific) antigen test for covid in mass testing available ASAP, and AVCT is poised to deliver that soon.
Then there’s the small matter of its highly efficacious cancer therapies!
IMHO
Bapuk
Thanks for the answers to my question this am, I did buy in first thing just above 5p and already well in profit.
I’m happy to hold with all the potential/news to drive the mcap as still undervalued presently,
Thanks
Bapuk
Dear all
Am thinking of buying in this am, and thank those posters who have posted good research into company (QuickDraw et al)...I’ve been trying to work out what made the sp hit it’s 52 week low on 2 April (1.05p according to LSE) but then start motoring up over the next few weeks PRIOR to the RNSes 21-22 April? Was/is there some rumour driving the increase or that it had just become oversold?? I note the placing in January so is out of the way .
Any views appreciated,
Thanks
Bapuk
I hadn’t realised the CEO had come out and said that , that’s good then,
Thank you
Bapuk
Hi all
I’ve been watching ODX from sidelines for a couple of weeks, potential looks huge. The only reason I haven’t bought is my fear of a placing: as looking at the Financial section of their Trading Update RNS from 2 April, they don’t have much money ...:
We are currently in the process of stress-testing our business forecasts to include mitigation measures available to us from the recently announced UK Government initiatives so we can focus on preserving our cash position and help to minimise any disruption to our business operations over the coming weeks and months. Net utilisation of our £2m overdraft facility at 31 March 2020 was £611k.“
Any work they are doing collaboratively will presumably require upfront funding to some extent? Am I wrong about this? Or does it matter, if placing isn’t at a big discount to current sp but accretive to the company’s growth?
I’m not a deramper as you’ll see from my many posts over the years on many BBs over the years?
Thanks, in anticipation of polite opinions/replies!
Bapuk
Surely the NHS/PHE will be relying now on the gold standard Primer design lab test after this debacle:
Would expect sales rns to reflect this increased demand!
http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-staff-offered-new-covid-19-tests-after-initial-checks-found-to-be-flawed-11976873
Hi all
There was a very timely and pertinent article by Jonathan Freedland in the Journal section of the Guardian today: esp the need for eg saliva testing on ongoing mass scale in order for lockdown to be lifted effectively, excerpts as follows-
( So far, testing has been limited to those with symptoms and in hospital. But the Nobel laureate Paul Romer – admittedly his prize was for economics rather than epidemiology – has got a lot of attention for a plan that argues that for the economy, and human life, to return to anything like normality, testing will need to be conducted for millions of people, all the time. He imagines health workers being tested at the start of a shift; the same would go for care workers, pharmacists, police officers and bus drivers. You might add teachers and restaurant workers. Romer wouldn’t bother testing people who already have symptoms: they should be presumed positive and immediately self-isolate. It’s the “asymptomatic spreaders” you need to identify, stopping them in their tracks. The logic underpinning the plan is clear: there will be no point in reopening shops, pubs and restaurants if people feel too scared to visit them. As virologist Prof Nicolas Locker puts it, “You can’t lift the lockdown as long as you are not testing massively.”
Do the maths and the numbers are colossal: Romer estimates some 22m tests would be necessary every day in the US alone, the equivalent of testing every American once every two weeks. Consider that there’s still no sign that Matt Han**** will reach his goal of 100,000 tests a day in the UK, and you realise how many orders of magnitude stand between where we are now and where we would need to be.)
The obstacles are huge and obvious, though Romer reckons he has answers for all of them. Shortage of swabs? Move to saliva tests instead. Shortage of the key chemicals known as “reagents”? The test kits that rely on them are not the only option. The sheer numbers of tests that would have to be produced? The world’s manufacturers could do it; it just requires the political will. Which, given that our lives depend on it, should be there.)
Sky is the limit for a AVCT once product ready,
IMHO
Bapuk
Agree, the world will need reliable tests the sooner the better, even if an effective vaccine is invented this year, as sadly this Coronavirus is likely to mutate (as the flu virus does each year) to necessitate new iterations of vaccine and possibly new iterations of tests year to year.
The advantage of a quick Point of Care (PoC) non-invasive test is obvious (but it has to be as sensitive and specific as eg NCYT’s lab-test) for end-users to have confidence in it over and above waiting for a lab test result. Apart from the impracticality of lab testing widespreadly in the Third World, a reliable PoC test will be worth its weight in gold to restarting the economy and elective medical care in the UK/US/elsewhere: right now, our hospitals have cancelled all elective non-urgent surgery/procedures and having a PoC test to check that such elective patients don’t have covid before letting them potentially infect the rest of the ward/staff would be imperative before such work can restart safely. I’d imagine the banks/corporations will want the same at the front door before letting their employees back to work into their buildings too...
As others have said, can’t see the big boys wanting to court AVCT in this collaboration unless they know AVCT already has/is about to lay the golden egg which they can then mass market,
IMHO
Bapuk
Whatever one’s politics, this is very bad news for him, his family (pregnant fiancée), the country ...and share markets will not like the uncertainty tomorrow either!
When a man of his age spikes fevers at day 10 of covid, it’s bad news as it suggests covid pneumonia...next thing he’ll be intubated (ie on a ventilator), and then it’s 50:50 if he survives or not....like that unfortunate ENT consultant who died recently also aged 55.
Pray he gets better ,
Bapuk
Hi all
Is this the first time supermajors rather than just majors has been mentioned in bpc context: “ farm-out or similar transaction as part of its overall risk mitigation and funding strategy, and has maintained an active dialogue with a number of interested parties, including a number of oil and gas majors and supermajors.”
Gla
Bapuk