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NCM paid out $85m last year at Havieron it’s not only the $65m plus maybe another $75m for 2020.
They must have spent $200m so far, it’s money that Ggp would have had to find if it held on to the 100%.
It hasn’t come cheap but future capex will be low with Telfer up the road

Hi Credit limit
The last fund raise included I think $5m for drilling exploration it shouldn’t be effected by today’s development.

Keeping the 30% is fantastic position to be in that’s mega revenues.
Short term blip but medium to long term growth value of enormous proportions

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-08/2220819_Newcrest%202022%20Full%20Year%20Results%20%E2%80%93%20Appendix%204E_1.pdf
Page 18
Accidents up
Revenues down 8%
Profit down 25%
Gold production down 7%
Copper production down 17%
Free cash flow down 179%
AISC up 14%
AISC margin down 16%
Earnings per share down 27%
Dividend up 46%
Cash down 70%
Debt up 853%
Gearing up 653%

Mergers and acquisitions have distorted the figures but the underlying production rates were falling due to issues.
The slow progress of the Havieron decline has caused big issues with their planning

We may be waiting for news on debt funding but the status quo still exists.
We have a $50m loan facility with NCM, repayments to start on first revenues so I should think Shaun is not in need of a quick decision .
We are not vulnerable at the moment.

NCM debt has rocketed
Dividend payments have rocketed
Gearing has risen substantially.

This is the reason they’re not taking the 5%

If this had been after the FS they may have gone for it.
All their financial assumptions are coming from the PFS and look out of date

Firstly I would just like to say I am delighted we’re not losing the 5%, that shackle on Shaun is now released.
I am surprised though the 75% would have given them full control.
Question is why didn’t they acknowledge Shaun’s Offer to buy it.

Looking through their financial statements
Debt rocketed from $136m in cash to $1300m in debt.
Gearing rocketed
Dividend big increase

You can understand why they want to conserve cash.

Regarding the MRE it’s practically what I was saying it’s the virtually the same as Ggp’s

Table 5 ore reserves 2.9moz
Table 6 inferred resource 2.6m oz
= 5.5m oz

The deep growth drilling of up to 2000m at 30m per day is around 2 months drilling, I wouldn’t like to say how long the geologists need to assess those cores then split them and send to assays. Must be looking at 3 months plus assay times.

The Eastern breccia being more consistent in grades needs less drill spacings for an inferred Jorc estimate than the SE crescent which is complex that needs a tighter spacing.
Fan drilling will be needed though to change the EB resource to indicated reserve in the near future.

40,000m of drilling could result in only 20 drills, and targets are reducing in number that they can reach which is why they’re drilling Hav North and Meco

Hi Antigua
How am I supposed to answer that?
I’ve been saying for a longtime that the exploration drilling in the ore body will be reducing as time goes by, it’s just getting too deep and expensive.
When the Decline gets near the ore body that’s when fan drilling will start from dedicated exploration declines. That’s when real ounces will be added.
Every 6 months now should see a steady increase in reserves and resources.

As far as this annual results go Cadia is far more important to NCM at this moment in time. Have a look at last years report and look at the huge revenues it brings in with a negative $109 AISC.

Importance rating of Cadia to NCM must be well over 50-60%
What do you think Havieron % would be at the moment?
In 5-10 years will be totally different with Havieron near the top. The growth curve will be steep.

Importance rating of Havieron to Ggp must be 90%+

Tonight is NCM annual results
Last years briefing notes
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2021-08/210819_Newcrest%20FY21%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Briefing%20Book_0.pdf

I suggest you all have a quick read of these to see what format we are going to expect.
I say this cos last years reaction from Ggp shareholders wasn’t good, there wasn’t a lot of content for Havieron.
The MRE maybe highlighted but it might be mixed in with all the others.
Please don’t get down hearted it’s not Ggp’s results.
As I’ve said before Cadia takes main spot with NCM and so it should the amount of revenues it makes is fantastic.
Let’s hope for some good figures but I don’t think I am going to stop up for them from memory they came in after midnight.

We were carried through most of the drilling so most of that wouldn’t come into it.
The Box cut was started as if NCM had 70% of the project

Ggp would have paid 30% of capex up to now but should be entitled to that back from the 15th Dec

Hi RA
What have you seen in my calcs, doesn’t matter how much has been done it’s what’s budgeted for.
There will be no inflation on what has been done already so only a small contingency

Hi TT
I was expecting that, probably selling.
Biggest P&D for years

Forgot to mention that backfilling the stopes where most of the capex costs occur is one of the end processes for each stope after revenues.

On the latest presentation there is breakdown of the upfront capex costs.

This breakdown is for a 2m ton per annum operation

$381m
Total upfront capex
less $32m for processing plant.
When in London Shaun said remove the contingency figure of 64m
= $286m total upfront capex
25% = $71.5m for Ggp share

I take it indirect refers to the likes of the FS and maybe exploration drilling.
The $50m loan covered us for the upfront capex
NCM can elect to pay $60m for the 5%
Leaves $11.5m to find.

$16m was raised earlier this year.

This is for a 2mtpa operation so revenue’s should leverage the increase to a 3mtpa operation there shouldn’t be anything else to fund as the First ore revenues will more than cover the ongoing capex.
Remember the backfilling of the stopes increased the capex from $250m to the $381m for the 2mtpa and the 3mtpa increased to c$450m .
This is going to be an on going capex spend not all in one lump.
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20220721-GGP-Corporate-Presentation-Havieron-growth-setting-the-platform-1.pdf

I knew Ggp were after a plot of land in the middle of the Citadel joint venture licences but I couldn’t pin point it.
I did miss this on the last presentation.
Take a look at the 3 applied for
https://ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=306

Hi TT
I know your in WSBN.
They’ve just issued core photos, one is showing a gold looking section but that’s not gold it’s Chalcopyrites
35% copper 30% iron 35% sulphur
Pyrites are commonly called Fools gold for a reason

20moz will happen at some point in the future, it be that the known size will accommodate that figure but we all know this ore body is continuing to get larger so what then 20-30-40moz who knows.
One thing for certain if 20m oz is based on a size of 650x 350m ore body then it’s going to grow considerably.
I’ve marked up some sizes on plans at depth of ore for 150m, 550m and 1,000m you can see them here
https://ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=124

I can’t find anywhere that indicates a size of 650x 350m still exists.

The ultimate goal below 1,000m has to be a size of 1,000x1,000 it is possible

This news is probably linked with that jv by NCM
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/us-hits-the-ev-accelerator-to-cut-chinese-metals-ties-andy-home-p7btddzicqu6vls.html

Hi Canary
There was a lot in your post.
In my view your conclusions are not right.
I asked him from 3’ away about rights issues and would private investors have a chance to participate.
He said in London it’s a lengthy costly process and they had been looking at it but decided to use the Primary bid system which he said was not an ideal way. They have spent a lot of time going through the scenarios and he is shocked at the number of shares in issue and doesn’t want to dilute if possible, he said he would prefer to consolidate.
He did not say he was going to have a fund raise, he said he has Term sheets on his desk from a number of High Street Banks one of which he banks with.
His preferred route is with debt and possible consolidation.
In the NCM loan terms the monies for the 5% will firstly be used to pay off the loan and interest or if Ggp chooses by some other means where the debt can be paid off in full to NCM.
I believe you have put words in his mouth, like Chinese whispers.