Member Info for baldingquickly

My understanding is that you are correct TWatcher, however it’s significance IMO is in the location of the new CE Mark rather than the CE Mark itself.

On this point TWatcher, agree with most of it. I don’t think the £912m tender will be to one supplier though, so there is potential for ODX to get a slice of it.

TWatcher, I don’t normally mind reading your contrarian views, but you’ve taken a big leap here to say it is nothing but a convenient change in narrative. Things change. It was a great tie to begin with, now I am feeling not so much. And it all depends on perspective. To tie my opinion to that of anyone else’s is simply wrong and unproductive. Perhaps cancellation will prove a good thing, perhaps it won’t, I’ve only presented these as my opinions (IMO stands for ‘in my opinion’). I was merely stating in my view that the RTCs tie to HMG is not as great as I believed it was months ago. Again, only in my view, don’t be tacking it onto others, for HMG to cancel will be a positive. Do not confuse this with me also saying not cancelling is bad, we will be fine in the long run, just one is more positive than the other positive, and HMG cancelling is not something to get concerned over. Another point, and you can take it with a pinch of salt, I actually don’t think HMG will cancel anyway so we will never know; simply too much potential political fallout.

Please continue to post structured thoughts, I find them helpful, but leave the snarky/summary statements that add little to no value to the people that are already in my filtered bin.

I would say we should hear Kol if they have cancelled as it is material to the SP. Would be a blessing though IMO as I believe the lack of news flow is due to the government ties, and we were selling at a significant discount to HMG, so we would end up more profitable and more transparent as a result.

Burg79, appreciate you want to keep some realism, as do I, but it is clear the numbers thrown out by 4FB are the AZN vaccine pre-orders and the assumption the RTC AB test will be the companion test. Don’t say they are made up when they are there and the statements would make sense if you were well researched and up to date. I do however agree this is AIM and nothing is ever 100% nailed on.

4FB, we do not have confirmation of what sort of surveillance/testing will accompany the AZN vaccine. I’d be wary of taking as given a retracted CIGA tweet that there is a requirement for 3B+ AB tests. It may come, but obviously could not be fulfilled by the RTC’s current members even if it did, so profit levels are unknown, and therefore what impact it will have on the SP. It will likely also vary between countries, with a higher level of testing amongst wealthy countries (who are likely to also be using Moderna/Pfizer), and lower/no testing or surveillance only amongst poorer countries which is why I don’t think CIGA’s tweet will end up correct.

IMO however, and as per Colin himself, and also the thoughts of well informed individuals such as MerchantBanker, Regulator, Aberdeenman (although quiet for the past couple of months) and others I like to read on this BB, ODX will sell everything everything it can make, whether the world needs 500M or 100B.

Specifically to Tuesday, we may see high 70s, then falling to low 70s until Tech Transfer is confirmed. One that is complete I expect SP back to £0.90-1 and we will stay about there until confirmation of capacity increase, contracts, or MHRA approval for either of our COVID products.

Burg79 is right IMO that the market wants to see ODX orders before the SP reflects true value, so despite returning sentiment, I agree we need an RNS confirming contracts/orders before we see a new ATH. It will not be coming in 2020.

Finally, there is no need for getting personal. Constructively state your position and assumptions, present opinions as opinions rather than facts. If you don’t understand, ask politely for the underlying assumptions or source material. If everyone tried a little harder, this BB would be a much richer source of information and thought provocation for all of us.

What are you hoping for? I may be able to answer your question. If the question is does the Mologic test work on the new strain, you’d need to ask Mologic. If it is does the UKRTC test detect ABs to the new strain, you’d have to ask ABDX. ODX is not involved in any field testing and collating of results.

That’s exactly the reason they are being withheld IMO MrBigDeal. They aren’t accurate enough (when read by a home user, yet) and more importantly behaviour would change off the back of it.

Sensetalka. IgM antibodies are detectable (even more so than antigens) during the infectious period. Our very own MerchantBanker posted a simple picture demonstrating the timeframe and body reactions. China now require an antigen negative and IgM negative test before arrival if that helps understand a little better also.
https://twitter.com/merchantbanke18/status/1339021130259107840?s=21

I think the chances of a 7:00a RNS are slim given most news is UK driven. MHRA won’t be waiting until late in the evening to give the green light, neither will Mologic, neither will UK Gov. FDA EUA may but I am expecting the others intraday or after hours.

“ Can someone explain why a test that has 99% specificity i.e. identifies if you are negative is an issue? The concerns re low sensitivity of 70% are understandable in they can identify false positives, this is solved by giving a PCR test to all who test positive to confirm. Please tell me why I am wrong with this! Personally rhink the issue re care homes is training in use and resources to do it are the reason for not using rather than test itself.”

Davde, the 1% incorrect in specificity are negatives that show as positives, and the 30% incorrect in sensitivity are positives that show as negatives. So they don’t follow up with a PCR given everyone thought it was negative.

The danger really is a behavioural one if people think they are negative so don’t follow the rules. Catching 70% of cases is a good thing if people follow the rules. All depends on perspective and the behaviour of the population!

We don’t know yet, that’s the thing. We do know though that Mologic has been used is several trials, and is still pushing on with tech transfer, etc. and Omega is still pushing on with expansion, so they must be reasonable quality. Only speculating, but even if they aren’t good enough for care homes, they could still be bought privately for workplaces, schools, etc. where risk is reduced (in terms of death/long term issues for those that catch it).

Just like you wouldn’t swear off ever owning a car because one was unreliable, you’d simply swap the brand, and that is what Mologic/ODX have the chance to do now. Despite the bad press LFTs have now got, they are the only way forward for mass testing and preventing spread due to cost, ease of processing, and speed of result. There will never be enough PCR capacity at a rapid enough pace to undertake such a task.

Agree with TWatcher, it is new news it was an accident. I am still bullish on ODX as bad vaccine news means testing will last longer, but I am not sure where it leaves the AZ vaccine in the short term. My head tells me that 61% efficacy is now a worst case and likely actually has a bias toward older people so shouldn’t be held up, but it does beg the question, will the data still be considered valid by regulators given it didn’t meet the study design and controls? How many months will it take to produce new, acceptable data? Will the data points in the affected groups be ignored so there is further to travel to minimum number of infections to pass phase III? No over 55s in Brazil either which I missed, which I hypothesise provided a majority of the infections so far, so very limited data for >55s too. A lot of questions that won’t be answered for months.
For me, just reinforcing that ODX was the right call, even if I am the wrong side of a £1 average, as it provides diversification itself and we can/will produce at high capacity for whatever the world needs for a long time to come.

To achieve herd immunity the chains of transmission are already broken and the disease stops spreading at any real pace. A long, long way to go until then unfortunately for humanity (fortunately for ODXs bottom line).

And while I am confident immunity from real infection will last for years in >99.99% of people, vaccine I am not convinced at all, and more likely will be ~6-12 months. Depends on the B and T cell response of the vaccines which we won’t know for a long time yet. In the mean time, AB testing!

Agreed we don’t normally test before vaccination, but a few key differences between the current situation and normal vaccine programs:
- there will be a supply issue to begin with, so why waste vaccines in people with antibodies?
- we don’t have any long term health and safety data, so again why risk it unnecessarily?
- given the speed at which this was developed and rolled out, loads more data is needed on immune system response and what level of antibodies provide protection

There are more, but enough to get test sales started.

Thanks TWatcher, wasn’t aware of that. Do you think they would? Even a late MHRA approval I think opens more doors than it closes though. Thoughts?

Only an issue if you need to be out before then, and I need to point out it is likely a worst case.

One would hope, but I think the go slow approach has been potentially shifting a change in behaviour if people thought they had protection. I don't think it is already agreed and they just aren't releasing it, they are just not expediting the process for public health reasons. I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but to me it makes sense.

Don't be a TWAT(cher). I know you are well enough researched to know what he means.

Happy to be pointed to anything concrete, but my research of MHRA approval is that it will take up to 90 days, but WORKING DAYS. If I recall it was submitted to MHRA on 17 September, so 90 working days would be 25th of January. Everyone obviously wants it earlier, if for nothing but the SP holding up a little better, but thinking logically it may be perfect timing. Vaccines may be coming online in a small way by then, so a lot of those (or gov) will want to check if it has generated antibodies given broader community prevalence, and those that haven't had a vaccine will want a test to see if they can responsibly avoid a vaccine which I for one will definitely do for me and the family. No point in getting the vaccine if you already have the antibodies, especially given no long term health and safety data.

Fair play sir. I will keep that as a lesson for myself. Everyday is a school day!