Member Info for Balanced66

Https://youtu.be/8euDCnjonck

Patience is needed as the big moves should be coming going forward.

The significant break out in the sector is nearly here.

https://youtu.be/8euDCnjonck

Regarding the valuation(s) of this and other gold/silver mining stocks.

I previously posted the HUI index and how it was nearly at break out level.

We now finally have the big break out of gold v stocks. I personally would like to see it hold until week end and month end to confirm the signal though there appears to be a clear break out.

We should start to see more money coming over from conventional stocks into mining stocks. Practically all gold and precious mining stocks are undervalued and we appear to be the lowest or at the very bottom in terms of valuation. Such anomalies don't last long.

In terms of jurisdiction, Nigeria is perhaps equivalent to the West imv at the moment and for the next few years. The same with newer African mining jurisdictions. They all want to encourage mining not scare it away as it's a nascent industry. The problems in Mali etc were the government want more of the cut are places where mining has taken place for decades so you can't compare the 2. It's just scaremongering.

https://youtu.be/8euDCnjonck

Sorry ignore the golden Sun comment as I just copies and pasted it didn't edit my other post or something. Apologies.

You will get a re-rating because of increased profits. Imagine gold sold at $5000, $6000 and possibly a lot higher this may shape up to be a generational bull market like the big historical moves.

Then, as Don Durrett explains you will get multiple expansion. So normal low p/e multiples of 8-12 etc will increase to 15-20 and more for many stocks.

Evidence:

Multiples will go up the further we go into this bull market.

Golden Sun should sell for a pretty penny.

https://x.com/R_Sheldon/status/2013870521042313498?s=20

Multiples will go up the further we go into this bull market.

Golden Sun should sell for a pretty penny.

https://x.com/R_Sheldon/status/2013870521042313498?s=20

People are asleep on this share - they will wake up soon.

That should say Serabi is a 45000 Oz producer

Serabi gold is a very similar producer around the $4500 and similar cashflow.

However I understand it has around a quarter of the resource Oz so a shorter life of mine so should be valued less.

However Serabi is currently valued at circa 266 million market cap and this will only increase as the miners have not yet banked the higher gold price. At $5000-$6000 gold you really are looking at $1 billion dollar or more valuations. If you don't believe me go onto Don Durrett's Twitter account for valuations at higher spot price.

Also very important to note - MAFL's update is for June 2025 when spot was much lower!! They must be minting it now.

Post 3

Final Valuation Summary

Gold Price

Conservative (6×)

Typical (8×)

Premium (10×)

$5,000/oz

~$810M

~$1.08B

~$1.35B

$6,000/oz

~$972M

~$1.30B

~$1.62B

$7,000/oz

~$1.13B

~$1.51B

~$1.89B

💭 What This Means

➡️ At $5,000 gold, even a modest multiple puts the company near $1 billion+ valuation.

➡️ At $7,000 gold, the company could be worth $1.5–$1.9 billion+ on typical multiples.

This reflects valuation sensitivity to gold price — small per-ounce moves materially change cashflows and multiples.

Imv even if we get half these multiples at 8x EBITDA we are laughing all the way to the bank.

$6000 gold is likely conservative now as it will go much higher - commentators are comparing this now to the mega moves of history so there is much more to come imv.

Plus a resource of 2 million Oz as mentioned in the interview (likely to expand with exploreration) puts this miner into the large resource base!

Exciting times and thoroughly undervalued imv.

Post 2

Step 1 — Estimated Annual EBITDA

For each gold price scenario:

🟡 $5,000/oz

Revenue = 45,000 × $5,000 = $225M

EBITDA ≈ 60% × $225M = $135M/year

🔵 $6,000/oz

Revenue = 45,000 × $6,000 = $270M

EBITDA ≈ 60% × $270M = $162M/year

🔴 $7,000/oz

Revenue = 45,000 × $7,000 = $315M

EBITDA ≈ 60% × $315M = $189M/year

(These are estimates — if you have known cost/AISC figures, we can substitute them for greater precision.)

📈 Step 2 — Enterprise Value (EV) Range

Using EV/EBITDA multiples of 6×, 8×, and 10×:

🟡 At $5,000/oz

Multiple

EV Estimate

6× EBITDA

$810M

8× EBITDA

$1,080M

10× EBITDA

$1,350M

🔵 At $6,000/oz

Multiple

EV Estimate

6× EBITDA

$972M

8× EBITDA

$1,296M

10× EBITDA

$1,620M

🔴 At $7,000/oz

Multiple

EV Estimate

6× EBITDA

$1,134M

8× EBITDA

$1,512M

10× EBITDA

$1,890M

Post 1

Any views on this?

My post below about the valuation, it was incorrect as it seems the ai assumed a much lower Gold spot price. Sometimes it will pick the Gold price from a few years ago for some reason!

What you will get over time (the next 12 months imv) is a re-rating in gold miners but also multiple expansion.

Estimated Annual EBITDA

For each gold price scenario:

🟡 $5,000/oz

Revenue = 45,000 × $5,000 = $225M

EBITDA ≈ 60% × $225M = $135M/year

🔵 $6,000/oz

Revenue = 45,000 × $6,000 = $270M

EBITDA ≈ 60% × $270M = $162M/year

🔴 $7,000/oz

Revenue = 45,000 × $7,000 = $315M

EBITDA ≈ 60% × $315M = $189M/year

Golden Sun very likely to be worth minimum of the market cap and in other valuation multiples 2-3x or more!

Also have the money coming in from the Lagoa Salgada Project which could be significant as well.

Oak Bloke may have to do a revaluation!

Same here added some more now that we have the financials for Golden Sun. Seems like a no brainer again - I said that at 28p 😂

Not sure if this has been posted already.

https://x.com/minenergybiz/status/2012463131839037592

If you read the comments Thor is mentioned as being the cheapest on valuation metrics and p/e.

At least the nutters in the Telegram group will shut up now. They were too keen to oppose any dissenting opinions.

A new strategy because the old one has milked as much money out of shareholders and new potential gullible individuals are sought for the next phase of the directors getting rich and richer.

Fresho is too small to list anywhere yet apart from the Aim market. It's still years away from a potential listing if it meets the targets for its growth.

While investors here have been waiting and continue to wait for the golden Fresho to deliver and sit on negligible gains after many years of holding, others have been making lots of money on tech, commodities etc.

Sad to see how investors have been brainwashed into believing in something that has failed to deliver.

Yes I'm in THX and started off with that as being my core holding amongst my one or two other gold stocks.

Over a year later I'm well diversified and still have THX as a core stock but also other gold and silver miners. Mafl now also features as a big holding; it's a well run, undervalued and diversified investment company so you are spreading your risk. Let a good team mitigate the risk for you.

Quite rare to find such a stock on the LSE or elsewhere really. We have GPM but as far as I know that's one with listed investments only. Here one or two of the private holdings will likely massively surprise to the upside when you least expect it!

Think those selling today will come to regret doing so quite quickly.