Member Info for BagOfChips

Just topped up at 214, hoping they will head back up again from here. Surely they can't go sub 200 again?!

I've been pondering over the timing of the Sheikh's new shares - does make me wonder whether LOI could be issued before (or on) Friday morning - I know, more guesswork.
RNS says - admission is expected to become effective at 8.00 a.m. on 3 July 2020. On Admission HH Private Office will hold 300,000,000 Ordinary Shares of the shares in issue.

yup agreed - devil is in the detail. Still feeling optimistic despite today's weird trading picture

....and surely, once built - each share would be worth in the order of 30-40p if you use a P/E ratio of say 8-10. And assuming no further dilution etc. A lot of upside if you are holding for the long term. Now making me wonder whether we could see 5p+ in next 12 months (at least on the spikes).

So, this is a 1.2GW power station right (ignoring other side opportunities/revenue streams). Say it costs £3bn to build (CAPEX, inc. debt financing costs) and say £60m to operate (per year) over a 40 year lifetime. Maybe £0.07/kWh for the electricity producted (not sure whether that's a good guess or not). That would equate to revenues of c. £600m per year over 40 years, using a 90% availability rate (allowing for O&M windows etc.) By my reckoning, that makes Oracle's 13% stake in the project worth around £80m per annum for the next 40 years. Even if it was (only) £50m per annum, the current market cap is considerably less than one year's worth of revenue. Clearly, the station needs to be built before it starts to make money, but assuming I haven't missed a zero out somewhere, this looks like a rather compelling investment opportunity, particularly if the 13% doesn't get too diluted and the bulk of the project is primarily funded by China/cheap debt. Any one else got any guesstimates to offer?

On balance, this looks like pretty good news to me. The Sheikh now holds 15% of the shares and this issue gives the company a (notional) value of £5m, after dilution, whilst the current market cap is £17m. That's actually not too shoddy given the news we are expecting - and of course, very important that he can't sell them for 12 months, otherwise we'd be in for a rough ride. You would think this is another sign that the LOI is imminent/a formality so could be the last time to top-up. This is looking really good....

Yes, a significant gap back to 1.2 and beyond, but in AIM terms that's nothing. How many times have we seen price movements of 50-300% in a single day. Kind of glad I reduced my stake at 1.05, but holding the rest for the long term now.

yep agreed. Interesting timing though. Tidying up the admin before Monday's RNS?!

.....great entry point now, for anyone looking to take an educated risk re. Monday

I would imagine people will load up towards the end of the day, just in case we get a 7am RNS on Monday. ...

Sandyman - is there any substance behind your prediction? I hope you are wrong, because I'm sat on an average of 57p and feeling the pain on this one!

Blue end to the week would be good. If they are on track with the LOI, Monday would be a good candidate for the RNS....bring it on.

I agree the RNS yesterday was extremely encouraging - progress is clearly being made on the approvals and without them, there will be no market for the product. I just hope that FUM is using this time wisely (whilst waiting for the approvals) to strike commercials deals on a 'subject to' basis. If they do that, the approval(s) and the deal(s) should appear in the same/consecutive RNS. We've been waiting long enough for a result here and there is a reasonable chance it will come good this time.

Reasons why DG may have 'stepped down' range from: failure to align with the other board members on strategic direction (not terrible, if there is still some consensus around the remaining board members), a better offer from somewhere else (not bad, if they find a good alternative), personal issues (hope he is OK, and not bad, if they find a good alternative), carrying the can for a 'mistake' etc. We can only speculate. A key question for me will be what JH decides to do, as if she leaves, the team could implode. That said, the company still has some intrinsic value, which clearly still has to be realised, either by the existing/emerging team or by a new buyer. Right now, we need some new proof points and fast. The question for now is does the SP reflect that value or not? If you are waiting for an answer - I don't know it!

Made an OK profit on INL last year - in at 65p out at 85p. Thinking about coming back now, as I seem to remember there were a bunch of big developments kicking off at the time. Despite the ongoing crisis/uncertainty, I'm confused as to why SP is now 51p - surely this is undervalued?

Things are looking up again this afternoon - 1.2p finish?

Good point miker444 - YE results are just a formality as you say. Doesn't feel like anything has changed here. Surprised at the slow start, but great opportunity to buy on the dip - stay patient IMO. LOI news could appear any time.

Strong finish today I hope, LOI tomorrow, won't take much to get to 2p. Patience is a virtue etc.