Member Info for BagOfChips

Hi all - not logged on in ages, but been reading comments and am equally puzzled by the extent of recent price drops, following what appeared to be a very positive MoU. As a relatively large LTH, I'm still inclined to sit tight. Some quick observations:

-Check Companies House to see the no. of shares in issue historically. Back in 2020 we were at 2bn ish shares(?) and a SP of 0.7p, so market cap of c. £14m. Now we are at 3.3bn shares and a SP of 0.11p, market cap of c. £3.6m. So here you see the combined impact of SP drops and dilution.

-Latest public accounts (64 pages for a non-revenue earning company, now pretty old - but happy reading!) show intangible assets of significantly more than the current market cap - no idea how this number was derived and what it would be now, but still.

-Can't really see how the underlying value of the company (whichever mechanism you try and use) has gone down in last few years - indeed should be the opposite given the positive news flow? No big negative events?

-Dilution event is a possibility but given the extent of the SP drop I don't see why the company wouldn't have told us about it. No idea what the cash balance of the company is, but the (now old) accounts seem to suggest opex of c. £900k. Suspect this may have gone up, so let's say they need to raise c. £1m/year to stay afloat. On that basis, simply look at last raise and deduce when we think they might need to do another? I

-If SP is being dragged down by a large seller, they must be selling at a huge loss - do they know something we don't? Assuming not, I can't see how the current market cap isn't much lower than the true value of the company (which of course is v. difficult to value when it isn't generating revenue!)

-Try to ignore daily/weekly/monthly volatility - investments are long term. SP on any given day is irrelevant, only matters at the point you sell.

At last, the upside potential on FUM is becoming clearer. In my opinion, the outlook is better now that it was a few years ago when FUM was widely tipped for success in various share magazines. I reckon this could hit 30-35p (with EU news coming) but knowing AIM will probably jump all over the place before then, so be prepared for a bumpy ride.

Trial - my guess is £1.5m if multiple locations. Then normal run rate for other operating costs through to 2022. Remember, an early stage payment (pre-approval) from a commercial partner is more than possible here - maybe that explains the grin on JB's face - what's £5m to a major pharma if they get exclusive rights afterwards. This is looking pretty good folks.

Excellent RNS this time round, short, sharp, concise and positive - just what we needed.

yup got to be 40p divi minimum, a sustained recovery in the SP too and still well below levels we saw middle of last year. fundamentals look strong

Well, well, well - still the same crew on this board I see. I admire your staying power when not much happening. I'm still in the game here - and still waiting for the big news, but do agree it has gone eerily quiet. Come on JB

I just topped up again - think there is more chance of this going to 400 than 200 (it will go to 200 now I've typed this!). Hoping for another chunky gain here in next 6-8 weeks.

Apart from the stocks still paying dividends (about 50% of my portfolio), buy and hold strategy seems pointless where there is money to be made from all this volatility. If nothing else it keeps the overall portfolio stable when the market drops

Having taken a 70%+ profit here following the recovery a few weeks ago, I did not expect to get back in at 247 yesterday, nor get out at 267 today! Fun and games

I like your thinking there, and six years into my painful Lloyds investment (managed to average down to c. 40p) I hope you are right. Slow, fragile, but promising gains in recent days.

Whoever it was that told me not to buy in at 40p - good call that man! Picked up a few at 26p yesterday, with a view to building some sort of position, but like many have said high risk/high reward so a few £k will be my limit here I think. Watching with interest, but struggled to follow the sheer volume of posts we saw yesterday!

Perhaps, or perhaps not. I think TUI is one of very few companies that may be able to find another way, but you could of course be right. Nothing would surprise me in the current climate. Also wouldn't be surprised if this creeps up to 350p in the short term as SP still looks cheap to me. As soon as sentiment improves (e.g. airport testing, vaccine etc.), bookings will rocket and cash will soon start to flow in again.

Well spotted and very good news. Hopefully this facility will see TUI through nicely now. Surely they will be inundated with bookings for summer 2021. Glad I jumped back in here at 272p.

thanks - what's the bet the next person says it's going north. then I'll wish I never asked!

Thinking about taking a small position here, but before I do - anyone want to give an opinion as to whether this is going to 30p before it goes to 50p?!

I'm 75% up now and have consequently sold 75% of my holding in the last few days. Of course, there might be a rise left in this tomorrow (up to say 430) but I always prefer to take profits before the bubble bursts. I'm more or less done here, but good luck to those holding out. Don't be too greedy, it can always go the other way to what you are expecting (although in this case, I feel that's unlikely).

Just grabbed a few more here after some good success on BOO in recent weeks. I agree it might be 2022 before we see TUI perform but then again if vaccine gets rolled out early in 2021, you can guarantee everyone (myself included) will want to go on holiday, so maybe a '2nd wave' of TUI profit is on the cards! Could dip below 250p in the short term, but won't complain if it does.

Nice - sold 1/2 my shares at 72% profit, keeping the other half until results and may hold onto them for longer. Pretty happy with this result, as only joined the party on 15th July! GLA, see you on another board where I will inevitably waste away these gains in a matter of weeks. All good fun.

Still trying to figure out what's happening here. SP still dirt cheap, consortium/investors on board, NH speaking positively about what's coming etc. My guess is this is entirely political.

Pakistan in need of more Power, but also leaning towards greener projects from 2024 (according to PPIB). China conscious of their own emissions goals (internally and externally.) Perhaps more difficult to justify another coal plant these days, even if the numbers stack up and fuel is being extracted from home turf etc. If they are to sign off another coal plant perhaps Oracle have been quietly encouraged to present the larger scope and hence draw out the 'additional benefits'. This would allow the politicians to focus messaging towards something other than 'here's the next coal plant'. This would also explain the 8bn figure which is now floating about.

I believe NH when she says it requires a lot of lobbying to pull that off, but I worry that the content/scope of the LOI we are all waiting on is somewhat redundant, which might explain why all reference to it has gone from PPIB site. Just a hunch.

On balance, a truly massive project if it goes ahead so multi-bag potential for those who have the patience to buy/hold. All other theories welcome!

yeah but if Naheed is 100% committed to getting the more important stuff done, I guess we shouldn't care if the financials are delayed.