Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Not sure if anyone picked up on the latest financial guidance from Cenkos (02/09/20), with PBT now forecast for $5m (2020) and $7.6m (2021) (?). Up from $4.8m and $7m respectively in their July note which I’ve commented on previously.
Hat tip to twitters Bobby1904
https://twitter.com/bobbyoflondon/status/1304365123268685824/photo/1
A few thoughts / headscratchers on these figures which may become clearer in the interims.
1. I still think these 2020 figures are for 12 months of Egypt and not the 10 post completion. Happy to be wrong. We’ll only have Egypt from March+ in the interim and full year P&L’s with the previous 14 months profit going to retained earnings in the balance sheet. I hope that BL/DQ explain that clearly in the covering RNS for the interims as in isolation the interim P&L will be a bit meh.
2. Not sure why there is a $0.9m difference between EBITDA and PBT in 2020. It’s not enough for Egypt depreciation or corporate G&A and looks too much for loan interest. The difference is only $0.1m in 2021 which makes it look even more odd.
3. Even though they’ve increased 2021 PBT to $7.6m, still looks low for 3,000boepd with Italy coming online sometime late H1’ish assuming Cenkos’ Egypt figs are still based on $44 per variable barrel in 2021. Still think they’ve included choking back El-Sam5 and/or some other well depletion factor into their model from Jan’21.
4. Closing cash of $5.7m (2020) and $9.4m (2021). I think that the 2020 figure is low as it won’t include the Egypt cash balance as at 31/12/19 as this hasn’t been disclosed to the market. It also appears to exclude the Hibiscus milestone payment which was expected in Dec, although I think that’ll slip into 2021. As for 2021, only generating additional cash of $3.7m on PBT of $7.6m appears low. PBT + non cash items – loan principal – capex + the deferred Hibiscus milestone, would give around $7.6m + $2.0m (Egypt depreciation) - $3.0m - $0.6m (Italy capex) + $2.9m = $8.9m, so a c.$5m difference. 4 drills in Egypt would be c.$3.5m-$4m, add some project spend for advancing the other existing porfolio + Italy seismic in late ‘21 and you’d be pretty much there. If they have allowed for a number Egypt wells to be drilled in 2021 in their cash calcs, the P&L in (3) doesn’t appear to include the benefit.
Obviously this is all imo and trying to second guess someone else’s financial model.
DYOR and the usual caveats apply.
The breakdown of the RKH iceberg into a series of smaller icebergs - some to II's, some to spivs and flippers - has been commented to death and i've little to add. The Miton funds, where i would expect their holding to be held (based on RBD) appear to have reports out next month which should disclose the no of shares held
C - that link doesnt work for me
Try this one..
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/928544/united-oil--gas-positioned-as--only-full-life-cycle-ep-producer-listed-on-aim--928544.html
Subject to agreement, 4 blocks offered to Corallian. 2 off W.Shetland, 2 Northern North Sea
List of awards - https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/media/6673/32nd-round-winner-by-administrator.pdf
W. Shetland Map - https://dataogauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/ukcs_maps/Rounds/32_Round/WOS.pdf
NNS Map - https://dataogauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/ukcs_maps/Rounds/32_Round/NNS.pdf
Subject to agreement, we've been offered blocks 15/18e and 15/19c which are adjacent to the Crown block
Map - https://dataogauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/ukcs_maps/Rounds/32_Round/CNS.pdf
List of awards - https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/media/6674/32nd-round-winner-by-block.pdf
Just a rig on route to Morecambe from the Netherlands
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18670971.oil-rig-stops-off-poole-way-new-home/
Rubey - here you go - if the links fail, just do a planning search and type West Newton.
C site - https://newplanningaccess.eastriding.gov.uk/newplanningaccess/applicationDetails.do?keyVal=QEMS4OBJ0SL00&activeTab=summary
D site - https://newplanningaccess.eastriding.gov.uk/newplanningaccess/applicationDetails.do?keyVal=QEMSX9BJ0SL00&activeTab=summary
For interest, from the East Riding Council Planning website:
C Site - Land South East Of Smithy Briggs Farm Crook Lane Burton Constable
D Site - Land West Of Low Fosham Farm Low Fosham Road Aldbrough
Having a quick look on ordnance survey, the C site is approx south of the B site (which is on Crook Lane)
The D site, further up towards the A-2 site - roughly ESE from A-2
For interest, GP (Jersey) Limited is the Lang family who own Humber Oil & Gas. They recently sold their stake in the West Newton Licence to Reabold for cash & shares - the shares are held by GP (Jersey) Limited. Frazer Lang used to also be a director and major shareholder of Union Jack Oil, holding his shares via, you've guessed it, GP (Jersey) Limited. I assume its the family trust.
The last quarterly returns from PVE have triggered some concerns by the ASX over its financial health - Q&A below.
In their response to the ASX, they are anticipating Selva development approval by Oct and an equity fundraise by Dec to pay for it + some working capital
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200819/pdf/44lnf2rfq711tq.pdf
GingerHippo - i wish i could predict things like that, i'd live in a much larger house !
If you took a snapshot average of analyst & company predictions for '21, $44 is probably on the low side. Time will tell.
Big old twitter ramp from lots of new posters yesterday and today declaring their undying love to UOG too gkb47
Can someone explain to me why i'm reading on here and on the twitter ramp club that we have no debt? ... or is it an 'honest mistake guv'. Always DYOR and don't be a sheep.
Cheers Bebeto thanks. The Cenkos & Optiva papers give a good snapshot and agreed there will be developments to come changing the picture
levistubbs - the Colter licence expires in early 21 so i would assume that'll be quietly handed back to the OGA and the adjacent PEDL's i think only run to next summer (?) - all the sunk costs for these were written off in 2019's accounts. Waddock X has a few years left for them to get something away. We'll have to see what they do with Zeta, whether they ultimately try and flip it Crown style or run with it... for balance, the last holder of the Zeta licence handed it back to the OGA as they weren't keen on it post tech review.
GingerHippo - FYI, Cenkos are supporting that c.£5m profit figure for 2019.
Group 2020 estimated PBT $4.8m. Corporate G&A will be c. $1m-$1.5m, so Egypt is forecast at c.$6m. Looks like Cenkos' 2020 figures are for 12 months rather than just post deal signing as it seems a bit high for 10 months.
Group 2021 estimate PBT $7m based on oil at $44pb - looks a bit lean for 3k boepd so i'm assuming they've included a slight chokeback at El-Sam5 and/or some general Egyptian well depletion in their financial model. Also the Italy start date will impact of course.
I dont have access to the full paper to try and answer some of my Q's around their assumptions and UOG don't appear to have permission to reproduce the paper on their website (they only have Optiva's)
Extract below with a hat tip to Delboi
https://twitter.com/DelBoiAIM/status/1280775088195977217/photo/2
ATB
myfirstmillion - bit slow replying to your post last week
If you haven't found it already, a good place to see the low/mid/high estimates for Colibri is on Page 329 of the Readmission docs. Gives the STOIIP and the range of gross prospective resource estimates (229mmbls being the mean average).
The breakdown of the current 20% GCOS is also on the same page.
https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/The-Company%E2%80%99s-Re-Admission-Document.pdf
V true levistubbs - you'll notice i said 'should' rather than 'will'. We've had 3%'ers come and go without TR-1's when you compare annual reports, readmission docs etc over the past couple of yrs for sure.
As JBBrown mentions, we've got the extra flag of RKH's FD disappearing off the UOG board when they are <10%. That'll trigger an RNS and a Companies House update.