Member Info for backinblak

Hi Folks and Surfie - I feel your pain on investing at the wrong time - I've been there and am in the middle of it with some shares just not this one.

To the point of risk and when this will make money, I'm not convinced this is as high a risk as people are making out here - of course risk is relative but my point is - I would have considered this to be very very high risk on the eve of Phase 3 results (no matter what FUM were telling the public about it being a sure bet). Any time a pharma is waiting on Phase 3 results the SP is very volatile based on those results and of course when your dealing with R&D and something that never been done before it means we have limited insights as to whether those results will be good or bad.

On the other hand we now know the results of the Phase 3 trial - the risk we are left with is if this still shows efficacy over 6 months rather than 3. I don't see huge risk here (some of course but not a lot). SP is low due to extended timelines etc but really, is the risk that high?

I suspect asides from extended timelines and the cost of the 6 month trial the SP has also dropped as it probably feels to some investors as if this will never get going after all the years of heartache but if we were to be completely objective and remove emotions there is a very definite path forward here which is not laden with risk and one (OTC sales) which coul dbe extremely lucrative.

The darkest hour is before the dawn :)

sb88 - you say "EU approval only a matter of weeks away" - Can you please stop posting absolute horse manure. With that level of research it is unbelievable to think that you have been able to gather enough money to invest in shares.
"FDA trial a few months later" :) its a 6 month trial - I guess you're thinking if they accelerate they can complete it in 3!!

Bald_e - Your previous post under this thread is incorrect. FDA require a 6 month trial to ensure safety. There is no case for trialing against a placebo again.

Baldy - I have to say you are sounding bitter at this stage - sticking around here to keep downing the value/fundamentals. Back when I bought in you said you were holding out for 13p. So you sold most of your holding at that price (although you said you would sell all but I take your point you held some for laughs). It then went up to 22p - that must have been hard to watch and now it sits at 16/17. So you lost anywhere form 40-80% compared to if you had sold at any time since then. It has happened to us all but you got it badly wrong to miss out by that % gain and I know you will see you got it wrong by an even bigger percentage once this gets good regulatory news. I'm beginning to think you are dreading if this does get good news and shoots up to 55p or 108p whereby you will rue how you missed life changing profits. Believe me I have done some bad trades but you're not going to change what happens here in the future no matter how many times you post.

Yeah - bluechip. Was thinking of doing the same myself. I am going to sell some shares that are well up and not feeling too hot about their continued rise due to market in general. I see FUM as a safe haven to some extent if the market takes a downturn and certainly a huge upside - which has to be in the near future.

No real chance of further trials - thats not to say the reg bodies won't have questions related to clarification thus causing a delay but no repeat trial. A trial like this is gold standard in the medical device world. Most devices go through on bench top testing (albeit not 'de novo' devices which this one is).

More relevantly Viagra was discovered by accident - happy days.
Not too worried by SP now - which IMO is a crazy low price when we're so close to more news. This could easily double over the next 8 weeks an if that happens anyone thinking of jumping aboard will obviously only get half the shares for their money so not worth waiting- at the end of the day unless your in here for trading this will see its real value over the next 12 months so I'm not sweating these swings but am tempted to add more if funds allow. Which will be a multiple of where it is now.

Very true - this is some entry price for this point in time. Given that more news on applications is so close. I know approvals are further down the road but I assume the price won't hold here until the eve of the approval.
The ideal scenario is that UKOG SP rockets just as we are on the cusp of approval and then all those shareholders who love their British companies have a lot of money to invest in another British success story and we'll be laughing. All said we should probably stop the comparisons between the 2 companies there.

Very tempting to buy more at these prices - will be a double your money in the course of 2-3 months, with more to follow for the more patient investor.

Well this BB has just taken an unexpected turn :)

Italian - may not be ground to a halt but I think when he has the chance to promote FUM he is just going to focus on MED3000 and this is what people want to hear about and the share price hinges on it IMO. The rest is nice and could be good revenue but for now the value is deemed to be in MED3000.
Great value at these prices. Anada rightly gives out that we never give figures so I'll throw one out here. by this time 9 weeks we will be in the 30's. The only reason we are at such low prices now is that most AIM investors are impatient and want the multi bagger now. I said a month ago that this could take 14-16 months to fully realise value and I still think it will take that or possibly quicker but will be 12 months from now. Still in meantime we will see some significant spikes.

You would have to say that this is a great entry price considering how close we are to more news. I thought we'd be pushing 30's at this late stage. Best of all is that the news is massively de-risked with the clinical trial. Should be just regulatory hoops to jump through now

OK so I want to add to this thread since I have been guilty of some bickering. When all is said this is the share I'm most comfortable and excited about having. I can easily see this making the brokers rating of 55p. Thats almost 4X current price. I'm also excited because I know the med device world pretty well having worked in it for the past 15 years and I know this will get approval but may take longer than some people here are saying. Never the less it will get approval, it has a clinical trial behind it which is the gold standard so its just a matter of getting the documentation together for submission going through the hoops and waiting on approval - so to have an almost 4X banker of a share is incredible. FDA approval will bring it back to previous historic highs (one would expect) of 75p and potentially with some hype who knows where it could end up. Of course there is some risk but I believe its not much. That said I haven't put the house on it because I don't do that for any share.

Hi TB - not sure why you felt the need to come back under a different alias - I know some of bad mouthed you after you left but its not as if we asked for you to be banned. Its fairly obvious you and GTX are the one but this post from you praising TB made me laugh, I quote
"TB I think ? He Said he bought and sold because of the shares support and resistance points, not really fundamental points, as I've said before I bought at £9.25p last year and to be honest I was selling up at £3.55p until TB kept insisting one day we will get to £8.20p the brokers targets , believe me he saved me a fortune , he also made me really enthusiastic about burford "
So TB kept insisting you hold at £3.55 with his £8.20 talk - funny that cos the first time he mentioned £8.2 the share price was already about £4.5 which would make sense as the broker rating came out that day May 11th and its never been down below that since give or take a few pennies. And after all we're only at 4.95 since that broker rating so I wouldn't say he saved you a fortune in that time frame especially since you pretend to have bought at 9.25. Seriously please don't clog the boards the same way you did when you were TB and same for you in the 3S alias.

To be honest - delighted to see TB gone - not so much that his posts were jibberish but its very annoying when you come to the board and instead of getting different viewpoints all you get is someone spouting that it'll be greater than X pounds by this evening. And you check the next post and its the same person talking the same ****e. And then the next post and so on. You've made your point now let a few respond and then people could get some sort of balanced view of the world. That said it seems to happen on lots of boards where the same rampers flood the board.
Anyway my view on things is that this will rise unsteadily for the LTH with lots of spikes and dips for those who do like to day trade. That said less than a week ago I thought this was going to hit 6 shortly!

Well we won't see 600 today but I'll gladly take a blue day. After all we'd all be rich if our stocks could just increase 1% everyday. Only in this a wet week but its been a bit of a roller coaster already. GLA.

I go with your overall view there Italian. Ups and downs but will take a longer time period to see the bigger rise.

Hi Formula, You stated earlier " as stated in the rns easier fda approval now as a medical device fda has received application & given the nod news round the corner, fill your boots" . I hate to disappoint you but you're either ramping hoping that people won't do very basic research a la trump style or you don't understand the RNS. No submission has been filed with the FDA yet. I suspect you don't understand the process. As you say yourself "read the rns do some research" :)

HI Surfie - My last message was meant for you too! What I would say is there is some serious spoofers on here and every time it goes up 2% you will hear its boom time and its going to multi bag any day now. I learnt this lesson expensively on UKOG, my own fault of course but can be tempting to be lured into the story.!

Fred16 - I wouldn't be too worried about buying in on a spike. As long as you're prepared to wait up to 16 months then there will be ample opportunities to take a very significant profit. Depending on what type of increase you're looking for. At the end of the day there really shouldn't be an issue getting this approved as a medical device when it has already gone through a clinical trial with 'good' results. This is the share I'm most comfortable holding.