RE: Back to a strong Buy 💪🏼8 Dec 2025 10:19
Well from a technical PoV and the recent well outcomes (both in terms of flow + costs) lead me to think that there is a myriad of issues in terms of reservoir stimulation + permeability, I have concerns around Pantheon achieving the required rates for commercial viability (for a variety of reasons, mostly due to the the sub structure location) at an economical cost.
2025 we’ve had:
1. Megrez flow test shut in due to no hydrocarbons at surface (won’t quote it all here, we all read it)
2. Dubhe 1 (Ahpun), this was a monster 25 stager of almost 16,000 ft, w/ 5,200ft, despite 40% of the injectant having been recovered we still don’t have a representative flow rate. The cost for this was supposed to be much lower (wasn’t it $15m?) than the $33m as updated so something is not right here and it’s a major red flag.
I am not saying they won’t, ever, get over the above but it means the process of converting these contingent resources to reserves (and thus getting to FID + some sort of partner), becomes much, much more expensive in the very least. I honestly don’t know what’s happened there but it makes me a seller.