RE: Thermo-Fisher valued $200B+ behind VRCI. Mcap should be £60-100m6 Nov 2025 13:59
Summary of research.
Thermo Fisher: $213B market cap on NASDAQ backing this company.
334 tests ordered for the whole of FY 2024. They make $2,650 per test.
Q1+ Q2 = 591 Tutivia™ tests ordered in H1 2025
Q3 = 286 tests ordered, as per investor presentation.
Q1 + Q2 + Q3 = 877 vs 334 last year.
As fo Q4: Commercial scale-up of Tutivia test adoption, a test for acute rejection post transplant, has progressed in Q3, with a 19% increase in ordering clinicians in the quarter, and the addition of nine new centres, making a total of 30 transplant centres now onboarded, representing 16% of annual transplants in the US. Volume growth from this progress is expected from Q4 and the number of orders in Q3 were consistent with the previous two quarters.
So they expect a big rise in orders in Q4.
Assume it's about 350 tests to be conservative (likely higher given the number of new centres onboarded) then that is 1,227 tests for the entirety of 2025 compared to just about 300 in 2024. Then imagine the scale up in 2026.
About $3.4mil revenue just from these tests + about $1.5mil licensing revenues from Thermo for 2025. The turnaround is hard and fast.
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This is what excites me:
*The addition of nine new centres, making a total of 30 transplant centres now onboarded, representing 16% of annual transplants in the US.
Most of the orders you references was when the company only had about 5-7% centres onboarded and they are now at 16%, which is still just a fraction of the centres in the US. Then also consider international expansion.
Also: Tutivia is the best in class.
Also: Multiple tests per patient is essentially a requirement
When you factor it altogether the market value down here is absolutely insane. Especially as the IP, tech, patents, FDA approval is all worth so much more.
No wonder we have a monster in Thermo Fisher leading here
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Prime health have over 1 million healthcare providers in the US thats between 33 to 50 % of all providers total in America This is much bigger than has been factored in share price.
And they are in talks as we speak with more providers.Plenty to look forward to! Exciting times for much needed best in class tests that will speak for themselves.