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Unfortunately, Kelso no know more than anyone else.
The price (in the 80s) is telling us that the deal is off.
Now, i obviously hope that it can be resurrected, but thats the reality.
Unfortunately.
On confirmation of no bid, at the moment. we are back to 50s.
And then, I assume, we start all over again as september nears.
I have spoken to Spreadex and IG just now.
I have accounts at both.
They both said that they saw a few small sellers (probably on the back of the Bloomberg article.
At 111p, stops were hit, and more stops at 100p.
Flash crash down to 81p, with no buyers in the system.
All theyve seen since then is buyers.
IMO this has nothing to do with whether the bid is still on or off.
I too have topped up.
Very telling day today.
We all know how leaky THG is. We'd know about it if the bid was off.
Apollo are very serious, they don't waste their time. If they had "left the building" (both physically or metaphorically) we'd have something to worry about!
My sources tell me that they're all still very much there!
Sbelt.
At the risk of repeating myself.
The reason that pe such as apollo, or indeed most bidders, don’t buy in the market, even a small percentage, at a discount to where they bid is as follows.
They won’t pick up a significant enough amount of shares. They will move the price up, so that their bid does not look attractive. And, if the bid fails to materialise, they are left holding shares that they don’t want.
It does happen, rarely, but they don’t like to. They play a bigger game. Happy to bid up for entire company’s, rather than buy small amounts cheaply.
Anyone that thinks that there is a 80% chance of a £1.70+ bid, should be filling their boots at 100p. It doesn’t matter how negative the press has been over the years.
The fact of the matter is, the market price is telling us that they don’t agree with us good folk on this bb.
Most posters are predicting £2+
The share price is not telling us that.
What are the odds of a bid? Let say 50/50.
Downside? 50p. Therefore upside is also about 50p (ie £1.50).
If you think the chances of a bid is 75%, the current sp is predicting about £1.20.
So, either the market has it wrong. Or us PIs are wishful thinking.
Apologies all. But this is a reality check. So all these posters that are bleating on, saying things like “speculation suggests the bid starts with a 2”, etc. Yes. Speculation on this BB suggests that. But not elsewhere!!!!
Unfortunately.