Member Info for Autonomy1

Everything in the red

The article was done by hash not me a few months ago I just pasted it into the message
Hash posted on the 14th Jan so he is still around

I have done some number crunching for you, this forum doesn't allow excel sheets else that would have been really best. but anyway here it goes.

Price of copper today $5675/tonne
Price of Gold today $1546

assumption prices remain same as above for next 3 years.

Kaz copper production remains same ( though this is likely to increase as they produce more ore and get more efficient machinery like they have done in h1)

Copper production

2019 (6 months) 150 Tonnes Revenue 547m EBITDA Free Cash flow 233m
2020 300 T Revenue 1870m EBITDA 1093 m Free Cash flow 466m
2021 300 T Revenue 1870m EBITDA 1093 Free Cash flow 466m
2022 380 T. Revenue 2323m EBITDA 1384 Free Cash flow 590m

So kaz will generate 1.75 billion of free cash flow in next 3.5 years at current copper prices…enough to service the debt repayment I would think. Their repayment of debt is about 1.7 billion for next 3 and half years. They will still be left with 700 m cash .

assumptions

Cash cost of Copper (assume remains same) assumption gold production remains same.

Revenue , EBITDA free Cash flow expected. As copper prices go down, income tax and mining royalties decrease accordingly. Working capital also decreases or worse case scenario remains constant ( I have taken worse case scenario that it neither increases nor decreases). I have added gold and other revenues as same as h1 . the impact of gold prices will increase revenue for gold by 40 m per annum. Rest I have assumed as same.

you may ask as to why does cash flow go up in second half as copper price , revenue and ebitda is decreasing .

The main reason is that in H1 free cash flow decreased because there was 87 m built up of inventories (copper and spare parts), advance payments of about 22m extra, and 22 m increase in payables. I don’t expect it to happen again, infect I expect it to be reducing and thereby increasing cash flow. I have however assumed that it remains same being conservative. I have also taken sustaining capex higher than h1 . I have assumed royalities to be same though they will drop as well as they are linked to revenue .

Net effect on cash flow I have taken as +125m as working capital, advance payments would not keep on increasing but remains constant as revenue declines . if you hear back webcast of kaz half yearly results this was the point the CFO was making when answering questions on cash flows but was not very articulate about it.
This was done by hash after the half year results
Leave it with you as to whether you can understand it

They wont make a loss
You need hash to answer your question properly

No sorry no more than that

I read last week that the CEO of Norlisk nickel added 8bn to his personal fortune
The company stated that they would like to help finance Kaz to build Baimskaya if we get news to this effect imagine the share price then
The company stated in 2018 they would spend 12bn to expand

Should read hardly going to bring the country to a grinding halt

We all hope that there wint be many more deaths but even if 100,000 people died it is less than 0.01% so its hardly going to stop the country grinding to a halt

New year is next week when the stock market is closed

The only share in the mining index which is down the fall yesterday was well overdone just wondering if are lovely market makers are keeping it low so a big boy can buy cheaply

They are reporting that due to the virus in China copper is at a 7 week low as China is the biggest consumer
Does anyone else think why the deaths of 20 people in a population of 1.4bn is going to affect the amount of copper they are going to need

Roydon yes I think you are right
Very frustrating share always falls harder than it rises in my opinion it was even going down last week when copper was 2.86

Hafeez1
My calculation is that you have about 70,000 shares in Kaz and you dont post about any other company.,so I presume it's the only share you hold.You would be wise to split it into more companies then you wouldn't get the sleepless nights

If you are waiting for £7 you may have to wait a long time perhaps till 2022 when Aktogay 2 is running

This company doesnt care less about you it's got massive debts and thus the share spikes high and low and it's always been the same
As soon as it goes up and you make your money sell because in a few weeks back down it goes again
Just sitting there wont do you any good on Jan 24 last year the price was higher than today so you would have lost money

All the posters come out when the price falls

Like I said a few days ago the share price gets hit when copper falls the last time copper was this price was Dec 6 and Kaz was 482
People are afraid of the virus in China and are selling
Once the media stop reporting it then it will rise again

About 500m last year and this year dropping to about 350 in 2021 and then it will continue to drop over the next few years before it all starts again when they start repaying for Baimskaya build

You have to realise that whilst Copper is above 280 then Kaz is ok for the year and can service its vast debts but as soon as there is any weakness in the Copper price then the share price gets hit
So unless we get some very good news in the next month from the company or the price of Copper soars to 3.00 then this will continue

I expect some news on financing either in Feb or soon after as they are starting to build it this year
Nice to know that the nuclear Russian ship in Pevek is working well so that gives the power to the area

Would be nice but somehow I dont think it will happen.There are to many factors holding it back.Look at today mining index up 400 pts copper maintains 287 ish yet Kaz cant make 560 .Trades are pretty low and people are not convinced.Forget £7 unless we get an rns saying they have found a partner for Baimskaya