Member Info for Auson

Krakenoil,

I still think it was just a vote winner from Rishi wanting to be Prime Minister, he might still get the job !

Thanks Tarmak,

When has Gross Debt to EBITDA ever been a metric, bloody Moody's always behind the curve.
I really don't see the refinancing not going through I guess its just a matter of price.
With increased borrowing costs there is no way the government can increase the EPL on the NorthSea

Hi romaron,

Do we think they might stop the SPR releases after the mid-terms ?
I notice they are still importing a lot of oil so to say they will re-fill the SPR at $70 seems more than a little hopeful.
Looks like Ukraine is getting worse not better, not that anyone wants to profit from such misery but that is the situation right now.

NigeCo,

I would ignore Moody's I think Sfor should just bin them off. I think you have to pay £50k per year for coverage. I remember they downgraded Enquest's debt to junk status some time back. If you look at the pace of deleveraging over there since its quite remarkable, and the increase in reserves although production is down from the peak.

Paddyboy1,

£10 based on what market cap, forward EV/EBITDA or just because its a nice round number and you have a £10 note to invest ?

We picked up 3% of stock out on loan so someone was shorting last month. Could be them closing ?

bigapple,

All analysts, most fund managers and hedgefunds know exactly what we do. For those that want a simple version. We do exactly what WPP do without the non-digital stuff which is mostly old fashioned TV, Print, Radio and the below the line stuff which is to do with a customers journey and direct communication stuff.
Ever heard of Group M ?

HeresHopin,

I think its just wider markets and shorts deciding to close. FTSE250 is up 3.03%
Volume is still quite low today. Heres hopin for a nice sustained rise over and above £2

NigeCo,

I would say the shorters took advantage of the market weakness after the results to take it down to 135.
Shareprice just hit 170, a new high since the profit warning

Stock on loan reduced to 2.95% at end Sept down from 4.39% the month before.

We are witnessing an orderly exit, when they are done we should rise to £2 and beyond INMHO

Stock out on loan here ( on euroclear ) was 2.37% at end August, down from 2.68% the month before and 3.1% the month before that. Not a large short position for a house builder. In the same time frame Barrat stock on loan has gone from 7.58% to 9.02%

NigeCo,

I think so, it might be unwise to hold onto a short through the results day. They are already in profit and could always re short if the results are bad. They could have just been holding on in the hopes there would be another auditing delay which the market would dislike. Only 4 trading days left, watch out for them throwing everything they have got at this ( algos and sell wise ) to drop it so they can close out.

Pearls,

I.R. have confirmed to me we are in a close period ( usually 30 days ) so results sometime in Sept or first few days of Oct.
I think the extra issue shares might be to do with one of the takeovers, but a bit of a non-event as its sounds like they will be cancelled. I think the buy pressure is shorts closing in run up to results plus wider market recovering a bit, Publcis and WPP are both up over last few trading days.
Good luck all £4 and onward all in good time !

epiphany121,

market cap at 21p £396.9m market cap at 29p £548.1m net debt reduced by £355m To remain the same valuation market cap today should be £751.9m or 39.7p per share. Thats before the invasion of Ukraine Brent going to $130 and OPEC showing their hand re lack of capacity and supply cuts.
The EPL looks like it will be effectively around 7% or less after allowances. I would cautiously suggest if Truss does not scrap it as it would look bad the implementation, specifically what can and can't be included as qualifying investment could be very lax.

Would be a good boost if Truss scraps the EPL windfall tax, I feel that was just Richi's vote winner before he resigned anyway. Its ridiculous to have a headline rate of corporation tax in the UK at 65% we are not Venezuela !

I would add there has been approx 2million shares or £570k traded today to orchestrate a 7% £36.6 million drop in £520 million market cap !
Buy the dip !

Based on the debt reduction I make a fair value of 40p here today right now even with Brent at $90

Ovets,

Agreed usually best to let things settle ( after this does take off ) if you wanted to de-risk a few.
Do you remember what the cash position was when we took off and reached 44p ? I'm thinking around $50m in the bank and Brent at around $70-$80, with cash strapped Premier making all the right noises but dragging their feet.

So Canaccord Genuity think the Arbitration result is worth 16p on the shareprice. From the 8.5p before, that would put us to a familiar place on the chart at 21p and above. I wonder if when the 7p and 9p sellers stop we will re-rate into the 20s

I think in hindsight the current share price told us that they haven't all closed.
According to Morningstar com there were 37,818,802 institutional sells up to end August and 17,121,304, so around 20million shares net sold. I believe shorters have access to order flow so they knew these instis were net selling.
On the plus side we had an increase holding of nearly 9million shares who looks interesting.

Third Avenue Management LLC Holding 1.6% increase 8,999,817 Aug 31, 2022
'Rooted in our founder Marty Whitman’s time-tested philosophy, Third Avenue adheres to a modern-value approach when evaluating commercial enterprises and the securities they issue.
The key investment pillars across the Firm’s strategies include:
Financial strength
Management acumen
Discounted security prices
Prospects to compound value'