Member Info for atalatal

How much more does he have to sell? This is getting ridiculous.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4270807-imperial-brands-cigar-butt?ifp=0

Buy, 50% upside

Mrd - could I request you keep your comments relevant to the wider group please? Thanks

Great that they respond directly to PIs.
Priorities should be in my view:
1. Stating that the div will grow at 10% pa for the next 3 years, then growth will taper off at 1p.p. per year until stabilizing at 4% p.a. which could be maintained in all stress test scenarios - that would be a hugely positive message, much better than announcing buyback.
2.Investing in growth areas - they need to demonstrate they are working on top line growth even if we're really in managed decline.
3. I'd love to see an acquisition or 2 in an adjacent area like a spirits, cannabis, other 'legal fix' firm which could leverage IMBs distribution expertise
4. De-levering with any surplus cash makes logical sense given current debt levels, but debt is so cheap and no sign of this changing so this should stay pretty high so long as we have the cash flow

A buyback is just returning more capital to shareholders - of which we are already getting a bucketload from the dividend - I'd far rather they use it to support dividend sustainability and show they have a strategy an a rapidly declining combustible market.

This is Share Chat not Tinder :)

When will this collapse end? Now we've crashed through the support there's no bottom in sight - painful.

Just take us out for 150p then we can move on!

Drifted to 89p today - seems crazy good value at these levels given 6% yield (which will be fully covered next year), 17% discount to NAV and decent economic downside protection given stable revenues.

I guess this is likely being pulled down due to Woodford dumping his shares; a good time to top up for income

Yes I know what you mean, things can chnage very quickly.

I wonder what IMB would be worth if they auctioned off combustible brand by brand to the big boys (like they did with cigars), kept the NGP and moved into pot!

This is baffling. Management are extremely confident in their ability to maintain the dividend and are even discussing what shareholders want them to do with excess cash - paying down debt was the preference over buybacks.

They insist they are not in a state of managed decline (which they are now priced for). Considering the valuation of 'quality' stocks on 25x earnings, surely buying into this at 8.5x is a bargain.

I've been buying on the way down and would go 1 more tranch if it goes sub-100p. From then onwards it's a case of holding on for dear life!

Morses Club stay clear! I’m miraculously sitting on a profit there despite it being a Woodford investment!

This is the most bizarre deal I’ve seen in my 15 years of investing.
Both the acquiree and the acquirer have seen their share prices plummet, with the acquiree’s largest shareholders agreeing to an offer price that crystallizes 25%-80% losses depending on how you look at it.
I really don’t see the logic behind it and would love to hear the views of anyone who could provide justification for this.

Gla

Wow.
Need a Federated Wireless update badly otherwise ALM is over.

Certainly good food for thought thanks.
Ultimately we should consider that this *was* valued at 300p before the announcement. The trigger for the drop was the uncertainty - and in these situations the market often prices in worse than the worst case scenario.
Analysts want to have their tidy models, if they can't even look forward 6 months they panic and that gets priced in.
Once the numbers comes out (18th Sept - https://www.marketscreener.com/SPIRE-HEALTHCARE-GROUP-PL-16953848/calendar/), the 'uncertainty discount' will close.

"delivery of our 80/100/200 Strategy"

What's that? Share price target :)

Brings me to a Buffet thought (yes, a cliche I know but he knows a few things). You buy a house and every day your neighbour shouts out a price that he is prepared to pay for your house - do you ignore him or do you take him up on his offer? Clearly if you think his price is high and you want to take it then go for it! If he shouts out a silly low price then you ignore it.

Berenberg downgrade info below.
We all have our views on sellside calls, but I still find it amusing when they call it a buy at a high price, price drops, then they call it a sell at a low price.
Although I do agree that the lack of guidance from SPI is more than concerning, but this is waaaaaay more than factored in the price sub-200p.

----------------

German bank Berenberg has double-downgraded its recommendation on Spire Healthcare Group PLC to ‘sell’ from ‘buy' due to concerns over its cost base and the likelihood of a turnaround in its fortunes over the short-term.

Berenberg also slashed Spire’s target price to 120p from 290p.

Earlier this week, shares in the FTSE 250-listed firm hit an all-time low after the company warned it expected to report “materially lower” 2018 profits due to lower referrals from Britain’s National Health Service (NHS).

“Monday’s profit warning means we now have even less certainty of a near-term improvement in Spire’s fortunes. Given that guidance was reiterated 10 weeks ago, operations have clearly taken a marked turn for the worse, and the lack of new guidance indicates that management is currently unable to forecast its own business,” analysts at Berenberg said in a note to clients.

Shares in Spire were down 6.3% at 177.50p in mid-morning trade.

I mean, you have to see value at these levels; and that is what investing is about.

The issue is credibility - how many times will investors incorrectly hear that the recovery is just around the corner before they walk away. I'm sticking but getting increasingly frustrated - remember we walked away from a 300p offer - looking like a very silly decision now.
I thought the strained NHS budget was good for Spire...
Surely management could anticipate these NHS factors...I really wonder what they are doing otherwise.

Rant over - just disappointing to see a share you bought for boring/stable returns down 25% on a Monday morning.