Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It's almost as if Pricing information might be sensitive.
also worth keeping an eye on
http://www.polysulphate.com/
I know it's the old mine down the road, but I'd be happy as a potential buyer to see a 2nd source of research, more so knowing the Poly4 format will likely be better.
Muriate of Potash
contains Chloride (bad)
High salt index (bad)
High Potassium (good)
Cheap (good)
Sulphate of Potash
No chloride (good)
lower salt index (good),
more expensive than MOP (bad),
highest production costs (bad)
high potassium content. (good)
contains sulphur (good in some places)
Poly4
No chloride (good)
lowest salt index (good),
production costs are low (good)
Potassium is lowest (bad)
contains sulphur (good in some places)
contains Magnesium (good)
contain Calcium (good)
Also worth noting many crop trails are in a mix with MOP & SOP, so not a direct replacement. A blend of the Poly4 and Potash is best in many cases as there is a need for additional Potassium above what Poly4 has.
I don't think we can trust anyone currently in government or opposition to tie their own shoelaces yet alone negotiate the most complex event in our lifetime. They seem to hate "Business" and thats worrying.
Cost and schedule
The project remains on track to deliver first production and commercial production on time. The Company has now entered the final phase of the procurement process involving cost and risk estimation which involves an iterative process of evaluating contractor scopes of work, commercial risk allocation and contingency requirements. In addition to this, the outcomes of this process are subject to review by the lender's technical consultant as part of the stage 2 financing process. The Company intends to provide the market with an updated estimate including contingency once binding financing commitment letters have been executed. This is anticipated to occur around the end of the third quarter of 2018.
To me this says the budget is being re-evaluated, stating that something is "on-budget" while the budget is being reassessed could be a little misleading. Is it better to state whats happening (as they have) and then announce any changes to the budget (up or down) at a later date?
Kinda agree that short term I want the price to be pretty stable as I have a little top up every month.
But every time it goes up I do smile..
There should be a kick upwards once we reach the required Torp vol and another with ST2, then it should be a gentle climb as buildings get built, holes get dug etc. Once in production we should see further increases as the market gets established and the debt gets slowly paid down.
Production cost is about 30 USD, Torp price about 145 USD so 115 USD profit (less royalties etc).
At 10 MPTA thats 1.15 billion USD (although production cost will be a few dollars higher at this level)
At 20 MTPA thats 2.30 billion USD
So to hit 2.8 billion USD we need to be at full capacity in our expanded mine and be getting a nice premium on the current Torp pricing (which is entirely possible if field trial results are replicated in the market)
In one way it helps as ICL are producing independent research that backs up SXX claims about Polyhalite.
Volume coming out of Boulby is low and cost is high is no real incentive to spend money they don't have.
Also SXX are trying to pioneer a new way of working, low impact mining which has alot of credentials both locally and with the Government, that all goes out the window the minute you stick an SXX logo on the stack at Boulby.
Maybe we could set ourselves up as some kind of SXX Financial Consultants.. I'm sure between us we could persuade those uninformed bankers.. Just don't mention the B word, could get shouty in front of the clients.
Surely the process is - Sign TORP, release RNS. You don't save them all up and then release a TORP. The TORP is between 2 parties and the other party is likely to issue the information too.
It’s 5% of the target and is 1 country.. if we’re approach Africa 1 country at a time we could see plenty of small TORPS. 5% or 1% they are count.
I'll buy them OR, just give me 3 years and I'll have the cash for you.
I figure we'll be at about 1.50 GBP at the time of first Poly in 2021, so ST2, Torps and "all on track" for me is about half that.
Well the ask price is currently showing as 100.00. Does that mean its time for the One Pound Party? Any excuse eh?
Realsicilian - You forgot the Financial Crash of AD 14, most Building Societies went out of business after the Nazareth loan scandal, some say that was prompted by the need to pay sky high interest. Then in AD 16 the Roman's introduced a 25% savings tax, at the time of his death, Jesus had 29p to his name. Meanwhile shares in FKS (NAZ - Frakincense) where trading at �42.50 and had been paying annual dividends for the past 30 years. Wise Man No 2 was quoted as saying "Was tempted to dump that stock 3 decades ago, so glad I didn't. If you get in early, just hold on for the ride".
Soon = this month is an interesting definition. Some people who have been involved in the project might well say production is starting "soon", hell it's less than 2 years away and they've been working away for far longer than that. ST2 will happen "soon". Waiting at the bar after the meeting asking when your gonna get served - "soon". Compared to the life of the mine, dividends will happen "soon" They'll get done and when they do we'll know about it. Could be tomorrow, next week, next month, etc...
I imagine it's a big game of chicken with the Torps, Customers know we need them and will push for a good price, Sirius know there are multiple potential customers and will not cave to far on price, waiting for the first customers to sign knowing that after ST2 the pressure is off and those that didn't sign have missed out on the lower prices.
It's certainly good that ICL see Poly as a viable future, don't think that anyone is questioning ICL's finances, just Boulby's economic worth to them. Production is likely to carry bigger overheads though and at 1 million tonnes they may struggle once Sirius is up and running with an output upto 20 times theirs and a lower production cost. That is certainly quite a way in the future though and until then there will be room for 2.
It's interesting that some of the actions of retaliation target specific swing states in the US, with mid-terms coming up in November that could apply the appropriate pressure to get him to back off. If the US takes on the world, the world will win.
ICL actually have a load of there own trials for Polyhalite, which is really good news as it's a second source of research for consumers to consider and backs up SXX claims. http://www.polysulphate.com/polysulphate-experiments/ They're sales of Polyhalite aren't very big but they will help create a market. I believe Sirius also hold patents on processing Poly4 so not so much a threat, as overheads will be much higher. Also with all the redundancies at Boulby, Sirius have a trained workforce waiting for the mine to be built.