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And why would the Government get involved?
Hey Boris, Sirius is getting sold (guaranteeing jobs and investment in the North) for 400 million, but a load of share holders are not happy, can you stick an offer in for triple that or lend them a couple of billion?
It may be a derisory first offer, but it may also be a derisory last offer.
I'm kinda shocked that anyone thinks Boris will fund this.
He's promised money to the NHS, Police, Border Force, Prisons, Schools, Farms, Scotland, Infrastructure and anyone else he's met in the past 3 months.
He's also promised lower taxes.
And we've got Brexit to sort out.
Not much chance he will finance a company that might succeed, but if it doesn't will likely be gobbled up by another company.
It's good news, but
it has cost the Quatari's nothing if the mine fails.
it sends out a little positive news about an investment of theirs which looks in a perilous position.
Pretty sure that if the ECB is wanting to do a bit of Quantitative Easing they might look beyond Oct 31st..
If only we could be in the EU...
Gotta remember that Polyhalite (or PolySulphate) is what SXX and Boulby pull out the ground.
But Poly4 is polyhalite smashed up into little bits, combined with a binder and pelletised to improve storage, spreadability and absorption profile.
So if that stuff works well, then Poly4 should work even better.
Just a quick question about process of Bond Issuing.
Am I right in thinking we get 2 x RNS, 1 to announce we are going back to the market and a 2nd one to confirm how it went.
or will we just get the confirmatory RNS?
smalltimeii - understand that Sirius will help in the long term with the countries finances, but...
Boris needs income in the short term, giving us a guarantee won't improve the finances of his budget or any budget for the next few years.
Honestly think there is no chance tomorrow.
What has Javid got on his plate right now?
Brexit
NHS - Spending increase
Police - Spending increase
Brexit
Prison - Spending increase
Border Force - Spending increase
Brexit
Schools - Spending increase
General Election
Brexit
Infrastructure - Spending increase
Boris spent the first couple of weeks promising money to anyone who he thinks might vote for him. I imagine if Javid had a full head of hair when he started the job, he would now look remarkable similar to what he actually does now.
The general Potash trend is upwards.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/potassium_chloride_muriate_of_potash_spot_price
Myo - While Poly4 does contain 4 of the 6, we'll always be pegged to the price of Potash (MOP or SOP) as potassium, phosphorus and nitrogen are the Primary Macro's and Sulphur, Magnesium & Calcium are the secondary Macro's.
You can always add the secondary's to MOP.
The lack for Chloride is just as important for some crops as the presence of the secondary's, while being organic gives us a benefit over SOP.
Any increase in the price of MOP is good news and it's heading the right way.
My intentions are long term, but once the SP reaches close to it's true potential it would be daft not to diversify.
If the price ever hits £1.50 then we'll have a functioning mine, an established market and serviceable debt.
Hopefully we'll have a nice dividend at that stage, but by that kind of stage the we'll have realized most of the upside. That would be the time to sell off chunks and look to spread risk.
There a McLaren garage round the corner from me. I'm quite a way from getting one myself..
I guess the currency of the contracts is a big factor here. If the contracts for the build are in dollars then we don't lose out.
If our biggest outgoing are in GBP but our incomings are in USD then we'll be losing out.
I think everything is in USD though so probably not a huge issue.
Unless of course everything that happened Friday was already priced in.
Was anything that happened a surprise. $500m of bonds with a B/B- rating being sold by JPM?
Pretty sure that was all expected and nothing has really changed so why should the shareprice change dramatically?
All depends on Poly4 sales price in about 10 years.
It will be related to MOP price - it's still a primary source of Potassium just with added nutrients and better a better absorption profile, although less potassium.
MOP price while most of the TORPS were signed was on the floor :- 200-215 USD per tonne.
Our Torp prices average about 145 USD per tonne I think with the later ones being a little more variable.
MOP has seen an upturn this year of about 25% and spent about 10 years above 300 USD until about 3 years ago. So if MOP hits 400 USD again you could see Poly4 going for double what was signed on the original Torps...
Conversely the price of MOP could drop back in which case that will limit the price of Poly4.
IF.... we have the finance sorted out and it's no worse than current thinking and 2 more "On time, On cost" updates - the share price should be very healthy compared to where it currently is.
But 40p seems to be pushing it for this year.
Debt repayment will be a big brake on dividends so there are 2 parts to all this.
What could dividends be after debt has been paid off (way way in the future - 2030's)
20,000,000 tonnes x 120 USD per tonne profit / 10billion shares
= 24 cents per share before Gina / Taxes / Royalties.
But getting to 20 mtpa requires more debt (and a market that wants it)..
so a couple of pence until 20mtpa, then upto 5p at 20mtpa during debt repayment and 10p after debt seems reasonable to me.
But nobody can tell what the price of Poly4 will be in 10 years, could as easily by 300 USD as 60 USD.
If the market loves Poly4 and it's looked at more as a premium product like SOP than MOP then we could see the price climb and with it dividends.
Maybe he doesn't have £800k in his back pocket to buy his allocation.
Probably does tho..
if we ever get to the point where we're pulling out 20 mpta at 100 USD profit per tonne, it's not unreasonable to think that 1 billion GBP could be returned to shareholders annually. That's closer to 65% of the current share price..
Additionally the price of MOP will hopefully be increasing over the years which would have a knock on to Poly4 pricing and get the company to the 3.2billion USD EBITDA in the annual report.
It ain't great but it's not quite the end of the world as we know it.
Seems rather appropriate for those who get the reference. A brutal episode with the good guys eventually coming out on top hopefully after some shocking losses. Here's to future and sitting upon the iron throne once the mine gets built...
a 1 Share transaction, contrary to all the naysayers is a secret message.
Every time a 1 share transaction is made it triggers a sequence of events which includes various shady people and ultimately a post is made on a message board or Facebook saying "RNS imminent".
You watch..
Kapersky is clearly one of these shady peeps.